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2024 Tropical Tracking Thread


WxWatcher007
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9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Consider the source, but looks to me like convection is firing up around the center. Signs of re-strengthening?

Based on the recon data, I think it’s finally starting to intensify. May be close to hurricane strength based on latest dropsonde and recon data.

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Minimum pressure of 979.8 & 980.3 on my devices. 

Where are you hunkering down, specifically? I know you flew into Houston, but the eye is well west of the city

Stay safe! Watch for broken glass and downed power lines. I lived through Ike in 2008, and it was… intense. 

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Bay City direct eye intercept. Near nonexistent signal. Will post again when I can.  If I weren’t at my window recording the eyewall my window would’ve been gone. A secondary gust after the power went out required me to use both hands to keep the thing from blowing in. Never any risk of shattering. Some structural damage out here but manageable. 

euGg3oJ.jpeg


 

iHLwFcA.jpeg
 

https://i.imgur.com/ONBSonL.jpeg

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12 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Where are you hunkering down, specifically? I know you flew into Houston, but the eye is well west of the city

Stay safe! Watch for broken glass and downed power lines. I lived through Ike in 2008, and it was… intense. 

Just getting to this—as you probably know now, Bay City. Ended up being a great call. Never needed to reposition. 

Thanks for the advice. More than you asked for, but I bring steel toe boots on every chase to avoid broken glass and debris, and I’m conservative about standing near anything that could be dangerous. I also do my best to have any other supplies I need come from outside the storm zone to reduce the strain on stores in the area. I try to be as responsible, respectful, and helpful as possible whenever I chase tropical. 

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36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just getting to this—as you probably know now, Bay City. Ended up being a great call. Never needed to reposition. 

Thanks for the advice. More than you asked for, but I bring steel toe boots on every chase to avoid broken glass and debris, and I’m conservative about standing near anything that could be dangerous. I also do my best to have any other supplies I need come from outside the storm zone to reduce the strain on stores in the area. I try to be as responsible, respectful, and helpful as possible whenever I chase tropical. 

Thanks for the coverage! I loved lookin at all those big waves in the Gulf!

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The disturbance off the SE coast may not develop, but the Atlantic ridge could help pump rainfall into the region and up the coast. If there’s a real EC threat, I think a retrograding or rebuilding ridge is the mechanism in August.

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16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The disturbance off the SE coast may not develop, but the Atlantic ridge could help pump rainfall into the region and up the coast. If there’s a real EC threat, I think a retrograding or rebuilding ridge is the mechanism in August.

MJO will flip the switch for August. 

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I would think if we develop any kind of drought it will increase our risk for tropical cyclones. For the last 10-20 years, just about everytime we have started to go drier, it has rained much greater than the leading dry period. I've seen it happen 25/25 times lately. We haven't had a true drought since 2002, and hurricane hits on the SE coast have been way below average during that time.. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

 Just after the least active GEFS run in awhile (the 0Z with only 1 member (3%) having a TC) and despite the 6Z GFS being still another run without a TC from the central MDR wave, the 6Z GEFS with 5 TCs from 31 members (16%) is the most active GEFS to this point. All 5 members landfall in the CONUS (4 E coast, 1 FL Keys and panhandle) with 3 of these 5 landfalling twice. And this is with a still very active EPAC.

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35 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

OZ WB EPS tick east with track; 

IMG_3707.png

IMG_3708.png

 

Unlikely to effect the area. I would watch for later August regarding a threat,  and then again in early October. 

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