Kmlwx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: $20 says we get nada this year That's an exceedingly safe bet EVERY year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Author Share Posted June 30 It depends on what nada means haha. If it’s no direct hit up the bay, then yes, that’s a great bet. If it’s significant impacts from a nearby TC or TC remnants that’s another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: It depends on what nada means haha. If it’s no direct hit up the bay, then yes, that’s a great bet. If it’s significant impacts from a nearby TC or TC remnants that’s another story. No significant impacts in Maryland from a nearby TC or TC remnants. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Author Share Posted June 30 I’d bet the opposite. I’m thinking there’s at least 1 EC threat and a fair amount of remnant activity. I guess we’ll see. Beryl continues to be in rarified territory becoming the first major hurricane of the 2024 season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’d bet the opposite. I’m thinking there’s at least 1 EC threat and a fair amount of remnant activity. I guess we’ll see. Beryl continues to be in rarified territory becoming the first major hurricane of the 2024 season. I agree on the remnants in particular. I think we get 1-2 big rainers at some point this year from remnants. Whether we get a still active TC in the area at any point is obviously a rarer occurrence. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 Beryl is a truly extraordinary system. May make a run at category 5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Beryl is a truly extraordinary system. May make a run at category 5. Looks like a Cat 5 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 5 hours ago, frd said: Looks like a Cat 5 right now. Even without functioning SFMR I think there’s enough evidence to upgrade to a 5, which is just unreal for that area of the basin on July 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Even without functioning SFMR I think there’s enough evidence to upgrade to a 5, which is just unreal for that area of the basin on July 1. Goodness gracious. Must think it's Sept 1 or something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Goodness gracious. Must think it's Sept 1 or something! When your basin looks like this, it’s definitely September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 What’s more impressive though, is that SAL to the north and an anomalously low wind shear environment allowed Beryl to blow through climatology and the historical record. It’s amazing on numerous levels. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: When your basin looks like this, it’s definitely September. Yep--Atlantic calendar definitely broken. What's September gonna look like...all red? Lol Oh boy...who knows what having a Cat 5 this early and a basin looking like that this early could mean for the season. There any precedent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 56 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yep--Atlantic calendar definitely broken. What's September gonna look like...all red? Lol Oh boy...who knows what having a Cat 5 this early and a basin looking like that this early could mean for the season. There any precedent? There’s probably going to be a limit to warming and depth because of TC activity and intraseasonal pattern changes (think trade winds) that slow or stop even more runaway warmth, but we’re in uncharted territory. It’s almost certainly going to be historically warm and combining that with the other major factors it’s going to be historically active IMO. Activity comps—2020, 2005, 1933 SST comp—2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: There’s probably going to be a limit to warming and depth because of TC activity and intraseasonal pattern changes (think trade winds) that slow or stop even more runaway warmth, but we’re in uncharted territory. It’s almost certainly going to be historically warm and combining that with the other major factors it’s going to be historically active IMO. Activity comps—2020, 2005, 1933 SST comp—2023 When did all those underwater volcanoes erupt?? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 935 mb? On July 2? Jamaica is looking at a body blow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 These are all still some awfully impressive recon passes. It may be peaking, but with the latest pases I think you could make the argument that peak is somewhere near 170. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 Regardless of the peak, Beryl is on borrowed time as a category five hurricane. There’s unanimous agreement that it begins to run into a ribbon of shear later today that will start to erode its vertical alignment and open it to intrusions of dry air. The question is the degree of weakening, which is critical for Jamaica in particular, which may receive a direct hit. Here are the four most reliable intensity models tomorrow at 15z as Beryl approaches. After Jamaica, there is substantial uncertainty that only grows over time over the fate of Beryl. The models all continue to weaken Beryl as it enters the western Caribbean. The track has trended north, and into the Yucatán late week. From there, it gets really tricky. Is Beryl weak enough to die over this region? Is it stronger than anticipated after Jamaica, leading to a reduced bend westward? How does the troughing in the Midwest influence a weakness that would trigger a more northwestward bend in the Gulf? What does the environment for reorganization and intensification look like in the Gulf? All unanswered questions at this time. As it heads into the Gulf, there’s tremendous spread. Be wary of the specific model means, as the western/southern solutions kind of lead to an unrepresentative mean in the later stages of the runs. However, there has been a clear trend north imo in the last 24 hours which means folks in Texas need to watch closely as well. Note how the Euro has two camps: one that follows the 00z operational and keeps Beryl weak and south, and another the more closely follows the hurricane models above. The “super ensemble” is still favored south into Mexico, but it’s north compared to yesterday. Basically—there’s still a lot of spread here both in intensity and track. Folks in the Yucatán and western Gulf need to keep watching this one. Finally, this is made very clear by these two runs of the Euro! 00z and new 06z sees substantial flip flopping continue over the intensity of Beryl as it approaches the Yucatán. Long way to go with this one. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 You can see the dry air starting to wrap in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 These are significant shifts on the guidance in track and intensity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 53 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: These are significant shifts on the guidance in track and intensity GFS trending North to Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 The end of the 12Z HWRF run has a Cat 3 Beryl off the TX coast southeast of Port Lavaca/Port O'Connor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 JB still holding that it's going to turn toward Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 Texas is definitely still on the table. There is very high uncertainty on the models for 5 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 On 6/30/2024 at 9:11 AM, Kmlwx said: That's an exceedingly safe bet EVERY year. Us getting hit by a named storm is a once, maybe twice a decade occurrence. Since 2010 we got Irene in 2011, Sandy in 2012 as it transitioned into an extratropical, and Isaias in 2020 turned into a nor’easter when it was directly over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Looking at the satellite image. There is no way the winds are still 150 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 2 hours ago, Interstate said: Looking at the satellite image. There is no way the winds are still 150 mph. It looked like it briefly but recovered fast. The microwave images I posted in the other thread were incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Is it me or is Beryl looking better and better on satellite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 On 7/2/2024 at 5:57 AM, WxUSAF said: When did all those underwater volcanoes erupt?? The fissures are getting larger all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 The satellite may have been picking it up https://x.com/tymetwx/status/1808553556548411845?s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: Is it me or is Beryl looking better and better on satellite? Looks to that that shear is taking effect on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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