Jebman Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 On 5/29/2024 at 11:00 PM, WxWatcher007 said: This is highly concerning. I am hoping that this upcoming Nina will be as unconventional as the Nino was last year, meaning we have elevated SSTs but somehow hardly any hurricanes form and those that do recurve safely away from US interests. And, that this upcoming winter turns out the opposite of Nina climatology with cold temps and decent amounts of snow for the entire Mid Atlantic Region in 2024-2025. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Invest 91L up to 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 It's becoming obvious the only way out of this longterm drought in the western portions of the region is tropical intervention. We need at least 2-3 remnant systems to smack us. And the probability of that is infinitesimal unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 17 Author Share Posted June 17 GFS gone wild but it basically spins up everything from the CAG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 17 Author Share Posted June 17 Obviously unlikely 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 New Orleans is going to get a LOT of rain in the next 5 days. Most of that moisture feed is going due north. Big Easy might want to start building an ark lol. On the one hand, Austin goes bone dry from mid June thru Christmas. Rain is rare here. On the other side of the ledger, hurricanes affecting us is extremely rare, one every 135 years. I'll be long gone by 2259. We do droughts like a boss but we dont have to worry about tropical stuff very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Invest 91L is now classified as a Potential Tropical Cyclone in the southwest GoMex. It may become Alberto. They are expecting some rain in south central Texas, especially on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 444 WTNT41 KNHC 172054 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Satellite, surface, and aircraft data show that the center of the large low pressure area is over the Bay of Campeche with a central pressure near 1001 mb. The system currently does not have the structure of a tropical cyclone, as the associated convection is poorly organized and the maximum winds are located about 200-250 n mi northeast of the center. The various global models forecast this band of stronger winds to start moving onto the western Gulf coast on Wednesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch is required at this time. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The initial motion is 345/6. This general motion should continue for the next 24 h or so, although there could be some erratic motion due to center reformation. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and westward on the south side of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the northern Gulf coast. This should steer the system into northeastern Mexico between 48-72 h. While there are differences in details due to the disorganized nature of the system, the track guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario. The global models suggest that some deepening of the central pressure could occur, although none of them currently forecast the system to tighten up into a classic tropical cyclone. Based on that, the intensity forecast calls for only modest strengthening. There is a chance than a small-scale vorticity center inside the large cyclonic envelope may develop enough convection to form a tighter wind core as suggested by the GFS, and based on this possibility the forecast has the system becoming a tropical storm in about 36 h. However, there is a chance the system will never become a tropical cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track of this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico. 3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast beginning early Tuesday and continuing through midweek. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday over portions of northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast south of Port O’Connor, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 20.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0600Z 21.1N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 18/1800Z 22.2N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 36H 19/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 19/1800Z 23.4N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H 20/0600Z 23.8N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 20/1800Z 24.0N 98.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z 24.0N 101.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/172054.shtml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Lock it in. Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scope1 Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Hour 300 cat 5 up the bay 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 On 6/13/2024 at 1:03 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: You think we could have an Isabel sequel this year? Isabel was BAD. I remember going to the OBX 3 weeks after Izzy. Houses on the beach, trees snapped off at 6 feet along I 64, beach access ramps smashed to hell, lots of hotels in Nags Head were smashed up and washing around in the high tide wavewash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 19 Author Share Posted June 19 We should have our first named storm soon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Yep. Just got upgraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 The SW Atlantic area identified about ten days ago is now invest 92L. Has some work to do to get classified as a TC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 The storm surge video from Surfside Beach yesterday is quite impressive for a weaker tropical storm. Huge fetch of wind. https://abcnews.go.com/US/tropical-storm-alberto-makes-landfall-mexico-storm-surge/story?id=111271126 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 92L is really trying to thread the needle. It’s been successful so far… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Its hard to believe the tropics are ALREADY active in late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 On 6/21/2024 at 5:59 AM, Jebman said: Its hard to believe the tropics are ALREADY active in late June. ....I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not, lol If not, then the question would be active compared to what? Not the 2020s certainly. Other neutral years? We're on par (or behind.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 WB 0Z EPS...first tropical feature off the southeast coast 4th of July weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 26 Author Share Posted June 26 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 26 Author Share Posted June 26 There’s a real robust signal on the EPS and GEFS for something to pop with that second MDR wave next week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 27 Author Share Posted June 27 MDR is really looking legit. 94L is heading toward the Bay of Campeche, 95L is poised to become our first true MDR system as early as this weekend, and there’s a pretty robust signal for the following wave to develop eventually. All after Alberto and 92L/93L being very close to getting classified near land. Even with 1 NS so far things are extremely active. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 29 Author Share Posted June 29 Almost certainly will have Beryl at 11pm. I do think it’s worth watching what the models do with the ridging next week. There may be a window to slide something northwest around the periphery of an Atlantic ridge. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Looks like Beryl will have the opportunity to become a major forecast to high end cat 2 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 29 Author Share Posted June 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 GEM shears Beryl out south of Cuba, then brings Chris from the same region northwest and north to threaten the southeast at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 4 hours ago, stormy said: GEM shears Beryl out south of Cuba, then brings Chris from the same region northwest and north to threaten the southeast at 240. The Atlantic ridge strengthens and pushes Chris to LA or TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 On 6/27/2024 at 2:14 PM, WxWatcher007 said: MDR is really looking legit. 94L is heading toward the Bay of Campeche, 95L is poised to become our first true MDR system as early as this weekend, and there’s a pretty robust signal for the following wave to develop eventually. All after Alberto and 92L/93L being very close to getting classified near land. Even with 1 NS so far things are extremely active. Gotta ask, is this late June or early September? This is going to be a massive possibly unprecedented tropical season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 $20 says we get nada this year 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Beryl is the strongest storm for this time of year to form so far East in the Atlantic. SSTs are boiling out there . Incredible warmth in the MDR and expanding North and NW every day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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