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2024 Tropical Tracking Thread


WxWatcher007
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12 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Airline may be making that decision for her. (Assuming it's to Tampa)

Yeah I'd say unless something unexpected happens there's no way flights are coming in and out of either Tampa or Orlando on Wednesday.

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Parents live in Port Charlotte and are still fighting the legal battle to get damages from Ian repaired. Going to fly down there today to be with them in case of a shift and a last second need to head out. They are just too old to manage this stuff on their own anymore :(. Latest trends seem promising for not too much trouble down their way but with such a small cushion, I want to be down there just in case. 

Wonder what kind of weather I might end up getting to experience. From what I can see, the TB landfall should keep the majority of the wind to the north but maybe a few intense feeder bands swing through. 

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567 
WTNT64 KNHC 071558 CCA
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Corrected for location/distances in the summary section

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane.  The 
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  Data from the aircraft also indicate that the 
minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT...1555 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown
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Trying to convince my son's college roommate who lives in Bradenton to get out of town.  Think it is working.  TO top it off, his fiancée's sister wedding was supposed to be next Sat in Tampa.   Guess that won't be happening.  

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Parents are on their way North on 75. Everyone in their area had been told to start going by 2pm today.  Around 10 they told everyone under mandatory orders to leave early. They are headed to Atlanta and I was able to find a hotel room in Macon to help break up the drive. 
 

Their home is in Palmetto on the SE side of the bay. 

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56 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Parents are on their way North on 75. Everyone in their area had been told to start going by 2pm today.  Around 10 they told everyone under mandatory orders to leave early. They are headed to Atlanta and I was able to find a hotel room in Macon to help break up the drive. 
 

Their home is in Palmetto on the SE side of the bay. 

 

I go through Palmetto lots when I'm down there.   Hope they make out OK.  Palmetto is going to have a hard time of it.

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There has been much discussion of a still high storm surge in a significantly weakening former Cat 4 or 5 hurricanes in the GOM. Aside from the obvious Katrina example, here are three other notable examples:

Opal (1995)- 130 kt peak weakened to 100 kt at landfall with a storm surge of 10-15 ft in the Navarre Beach to Destin area, FL

Lili (2002)- 125 kt peak weakened to 80 kt at landfall with a storm surge of 12 ft near Calumet and Vermillion Bay, LA 

Rita (2005)- 155 kt peak weakened to 100 kt at landfall with a storm surge of 15 ft at Cameron, LA

In comparison, Ian (2022) had a maximum storm surge of 10-15 ft centered at Ft. Myers Beach as a 130 kt landfall. It looks like Milton's storm surge will really be building as its wind field expands most dramatically on Wednesday. 

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8 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

There has been much discussion of a still high storm surge in a significantly weakening former Cat 4 or 5 hurricanes in the GOM. Aside from the obvious Katrina example, here are three other notable examples:

Opal (1995)- 130 kt peak weakened to 100 kt at landfall with a storm surge of 10-15 ft in the Navarre Beach to Destin area, FL

Lili (2002)- 125 kt peak weakened to 80 kt at landfall with a storm surge of 12 ft near Calumet and Vermillion Bay, LA 

Rita (2005)- 155 kt peak weakened to 100 kt at landfall with a storm surge of 15 ft at Cameron, LA

In comparison, Ian (2022) had a maximum storm surge of 10-15 ft centered at Ft. Myers Beach as a 130 kt landfall. It looks like Milton's storm surge will really be building as its wind field expands most dramatically on Wednesday. 

 

Yeah was wondering about that - if a storm strengthens and then weakens - does the storm surge remain at a higher value; sounds like you're confirming that yes it does.

This does not bode well for the barrier islands there - Anna Maria down through Lido and even Siesta Key.   A lot of that is going to be wiped out.   I really hope that everyone gets off those islands.

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13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

down/up to 905 mb and 180mph at 4pm

So it sounds like Cat 7 is on the table.

Seriously though...that is truly unreal. Seems like you only hear about these kinds of measurements in massive super typhoons in the West Pacific. I saw someone from a town along Tampa Bay post on a friend's Facebook feed saying something like "I'm ready, but but not ready, if you know what I mean" and said he was sticking it out. That's just not a good idea. I understand the sentiment of wanting to stay to do all you can to keep your house and possessions safe, but in the face of a storm like this I just can't imagine deciding not to leave.

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