Terpeast Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 My aunt lives in Winter Haven, but is now out of town and planning to fly back on Wednesday. I’ve been telling her that I recommend cancelling her trip for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 11 minutes ago, Terpeast said: My aunt lives in Winter Haven, but is now out of town and planning to fly back on Wednesday. I’ve been telling her that I recommend cancelling her trip for now. Airline may be making that decision for her. (Assuming it's to Tampa) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just read 150mph+ winds per NHC....almost at cat 7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfStock1 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 12 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said: Airline may be making that decision for her. (Assuming it's to Tampa) Yeah I'd say unless something unexpected happens there's no way flights are coming in and out of either Tampa or Orlando on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Parents live in Port Charlotte and are still fighting the legal battle to get damages from Ian repaired. Going to fly down there today to be with them in case of a shift and a last second need to head out. They are just too old to manage this stuff on their own anymore . Latest trends seem promising for not too much trouble down their way but with such a small cushion, I want to be down there just in case. Wonder what kind of weather I might end up getting to experience. From what I can see, the TB landfall should keep the majority of the wind to the north but maybe a few intense feeder bands swing through. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Category 5 now after truly insane intensification 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 567 WTNT64 KNHC 071558 CCA TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Corrected for location/distances in the summary section ...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches). SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT...1555 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 91.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake/Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (8) Hurricanes: 10 (6) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (MH) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 That didn't take long. Hopefully it's peaking early and will weaken before Florida, but that's wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 26 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Category 5 now after truly insane intensification 3rd most rapid intensification in Atlantic basin history apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 3rd most rapid intensification in Atlantic basin history apparently Correct! Wilma (2005) and Felix (2007) are the only ones faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 This is what I saw! I did not confirm Only seven hurricanes have gone from Category 1 to Category 5 in 24 hours or less. Wilma: 12 hours Maria: 18 hours Milton: 18 hours Felix: 24 hours Dean: 24 hours Andrew: 24 hours Anita: 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Trying to convince my son's college roommate who lives in Bradenton to get out of town. Think it is working. TO top it off, his fiancée's sister wedding was supposed to be next Sat in Tampa. Guess that won't be happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Parents are on their way North on 75. Everyone in their area had been told to start going by 2pm today. Around 10 they told everyone under mandatory orders to leave early. They are headed to Atlanta and I was able to find a hotel room in Macon to help break up the drive. Their home is in Palmetto on the SE side of the bay. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfStock1 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 175 MPH SUSTAINED. HOLY COW. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfStock1 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Milton set the record for fastest storm to go from tropic depression to Cat 5 hurricane (46 hours): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#Fastest_intensification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfStock1 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 56 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: Parents are on their way North on 75. Everyone in their area had been told to start going by 2pm today. Around 10 they told everyone under mandatory orders to leave early. They are headed to Atlanta and I was able to find a hotel room in Macon to help break up the drive. Their home is in Palmetto on the SE side of the bay. I go through Palmetto lots when I'm down there. Hope they make out OK. Palmetto is going to have a hard time of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Absolutely extraordinary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Was 100mph when I woke up this am. What a wild intensification today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 4 hours ago, WolfStock1 said: I go through Palmetto lots when I'm down there. Hope they make out OK. Palmetto is going to have a hard time of it. Thanks. They have been on the road for 3 hrs and are not to Ocala yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 There has been much discussion of a still high storm surge in a significantly weakening former Cat 4 or 5 hurricanes in the GOM. Aside from the obvious Katrina example, here are three other notable examples: Opal (1995)- 130 kt peak weakened to 100 kt at landfall with a storm surge of 10-15 ft in the Navarre Beach to Destin area, FL Lili (2002)- 125 kt peak weakened to 80 kt at landfall with a storm surge of 12 ft near Calumet and Vermillion Bay, LA Rita (2005)- 155 kt peak weakened to 100 kt at landfall with a storm surge of 15 ft at Cameron, LA In comparison, Ian (2022) had a maximum storm surge of 10-15 ft centered at Ft. Myers Beach as a 130 kt landfall. It looks like Milton's storm surge will really be building as its wind field expands most dramatically on Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfStock1 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 8 minutes ago, gymengineer said: There has been much discussion of a still high storm surge in a significantly weakening former Cat 4 or 5 hurricanes in the GOM. Aside from the obvious Katrina example, here are three other notable examples: Opal (1995)- 130 kt peak weakened to 100 kt at landfall with a storm surge of 10-15 ft in the Navarre Beach to Destin area, FL Lili (2002)- 125 kt peak weakened to 80 kt at landfall with a storm surge of 12 ft near Calumet and Vermillion Bay, LA Rita (2005)- 155 kt peak weakened to 100 kt at landfall with a storm surge of 15 ft at Cameron, LA In comparison, Ian (2022) had a maximum storm surge of 10-15 ft centered at Ft. Myers Beach as a 130 kt landfall. It looks like Milton's storm surge will really be building as its wind field expands most dramatically on Wednesday. Yeah was wondering about that - if a storm strengthens and then weakens - does the storm surge remain at a higher value; sounds like you're confirming that yes it does. This does not bode well for the barrier islands there - Anna Maria down through Lido and even Siesta Key. A lot of that is going to be wiped out. I really hope that everyone gets off those islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Wow that escalated quickly . Do the models take into account torsional interactions from skimming so close to the Yucatan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 down/up to 905 mb and 180mph at 4pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: down/up to 905 mb and 180mph at 4pm So it sounds like Cat 7 is on the table. Seriously though...that is truly unreal. Seems like you only hear about these kinds of measurements in massive super typhoons in the West Pacific. I saw someone from a town along Tampa Bay post on a friend's Facebook feed saying something like "I'm ready, but but not ready, if you know what I mean" and said he was sticking it out. That's just not a good idea. I understand the sentiment of wanting to stay to do all you can to keep your house and possessions safe, but in the face of a storm like this I just can't imagine deciding not to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: down/up to 905 mb and 180mph at 4pm Below 900 now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 One of the most perfect radar/satellite presentations I have ever seen in the GOM. What a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 WOW WOW WOW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 This is unreal! What a small eye! Like a 5 mile wide F4 tornado (as someone on x said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 We are going to see 181+ mph soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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