2024 Tropical Tracking Thread

[WxWatcher007]

Exceptionally late start to CV season, but it looks like it’s underway. 

[Kmlwx]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Exceptionally late start to CV season, but it looks like it’s underway. 

Heck...maybe out seasons are shifting a bit. We all have mentioned that winter seems to start later and later but hang on later as well...fitting that hurricane season would follow that pattern. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Exceptionally late start to CV season, but it looks like it’s underway. 

CV?

[WxUSAF]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

CV?

Cape Verde

[WxWatcher007]

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 15 (6)
Hurricanes: 10 (3)
Major Hurricanes: 5 (1)
 

Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk

[North Balti Zen]

If you all want a really good detailed read on the western North Carolina impacts and meteorological setup as it unfolded -

 

https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2024/09/rapid-reaction-historic-flooding-follows-helene-in-western-nc/

[aldie 22]

One of my customers in the southeast is Ingles Market and they are based in Asheville. Their entire warehouse was under water and they have several employees still missing. Tragic situation going on down there.

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

One of my customers in the southeast is Ingels Market and they are based in Asheville. Their entire warehouse was under water and they have several employees still missing. Tragic situation going on down there.

It’s SO bad. I’ve been following local sources for days to do what I can to get good info to my father -in-law - and it is truly tragic . I will type longer at some point about exactly why it is so bad - but , yeah, bad.

[North Balti Zen]

Quick (longer) note - if you look at a google map from Greenville, SC running north to the TN/VA/NC convergence and look about 75 miles on either side of Asheville - that is the area that got decimated. In any event, if you look at a google map of that area and drill down even a little, marvel at how many small creeks and streams there are beyond the larger rivers in that watershed. Just look, if you want, at the drive north from Brevard, NC (where my father-in-law is just east of there in the Connastee Falls area) up to the Asheville airport which is south of Asheville proper - (gonna drop a link to that part of the map maybe - see if this works) -

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Brevard,+North+Carolina/Asheville+Regional+Airport,+61+Terminal+Dr+%231,+Fletcher,+NC+28732/@35.3389373,-82.7253159,12.25z/data=!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x8859a4cb5640a41d:0x8f85466844a544b3!2m2!1d-82.7342919!2d35.2334472!1m5!1m1!1s0x8859ecbd4fbaf423:0x9a75498c5b42908b!2m2!1d-82.5378541!2d35.4348962!3e0!5m1!1e1?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkyNS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

Zoom in a hair on that section and marvel at all the little streams and waterways running out of the hillsides in just that stretch of NC 280.  Per the link to the after event overview I put above, roughly 12-30 inches of rain fell in that area from around Brevard up to the Boone, NC area north of Asheville and to points east and west of that line.  

That entire area is dotted, littered with, replete with, streams/creeks and what have you running from the mountainsides down to the lower elevations.  They run dry or very low normally. However, you dump that much water into that ENTIRE AREA and it is an unmitigated disaster over a huge area. So many enclaves of homes, communities, and the like dot that whole area and many MANY of them you turn off a road like NC 280 and cross a small bridge to access the homes up hillsides. A LOT of those small bridges are gone. And that is before you even consider that portions of I-40 and I-26 are gone, or the washouts on main highways like NC 280 (like what you see in the pics from Chimney Rock/Lake Lure) or Swannanoa.  The sheer amount of road infrastructure that has been affected and wiped out is mind-boggling. Then, add in that power lines and cables ran beside and under those same roads and...well...yeah, that whole area is proper fucked. 

The main centers of commerce and distribution (Asheville, Boone, Hendersonville) were completely inundated.  The smaller quaint tourist communities and residential towns like Banner Elk, Chimney Rock, Beech Mountain (cut off from Banner Elk by road collapse) and too many others to name that lay alongside small rivers have either massive road damage, home damages, or, in Chimney Rock's case, most of the town missing and floating in Lake Lure.  

They are still counting the dead and missing. 

I sent my father-in-law pointed long texts on Wednesday advising him to stock up on food, check batteries, and above all else not to go out once the rain started Wednesday night, he had not really paid attention or heard many warnings about the danger prior to that. I don't blame the NWS or media, frankly, for that, it is really hard to get people's attention in interior areas on flood risks, or articulate the dangers of this kind of extreme rain total scenario, and I am sure that is being analyzed now going forward, but not sure what can be done, really.  People need to get better educated on the dangers of this kind of extreme weather outcome in the current climate change model, I think.  Not enough zealots like us on this board who went to school on what happened in Houston with Harvey, or excess rain and flooding like in Nebraska not too long ago, to educate people fully I guess. 

Combo of terrain, miles affected, and nature of the impacts to roads and bridges gonna make this one a long LONG recovery process. 

[WxUSAF]

This is just me totally speculating, but in regards to the “the severity of this flood threat didn’t reach people ahead of time” discussion, I wonder how much of that comes from most people now getting their weather from Apple weather app and the like. I’m sure local broadcasters and NWS were appropriately warning ahead of time, but how many people does that reach now? People look at their app and think “oh bummer, rainy week ahead” but maybe didn’t get anything related to the seriousness?

[gymengineer]

These were the PNS's from GSP released Thursday and Wednesday. The Thursday language is as dire as I've seen for flooding. I still did see quite a few people on social media saying they were led to believe Helene was going to pass well west- the Atlanta track- so had no idea it was possibly going to be this bad. That track shift may explain the surprise over the extent of power outages, but doesn't explain ignorance about the impending flooding. I agree that people are probably just not getting their weather info from "old-school" sources anymore. 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
122 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS FROM HURRICANE HELENE...

This will be one of the most significant weather events to happen
in the western portions of the area in the modern era. Record
flooding is forecasted and has been compared to the floods of 1916
in the Asheville area. The impacts from this event are expected to
be greater than Tropical Storm Fred from August 2021, the
mountains in 2004 from Frances and Ivan, and in Upstate South
Carolina the Saluda River Basin flooding from 1949. We plead with
everyone that you take every single weather warning very seriously
through the entirety of this event as impacts will be life-
threatening and make sure to have multiple ways to receive the
alerts. The protection of life and property is the overall mission
of the National Weather Service, and we pledge to stand by the
folks of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. We cannot
stress the significance of this event enough. Heed all evacuation
orders from your local Emergency Managers and go to a storm
shelter if you do not feel safe at your current location.

Landslides, including fast-moving debris flows consisting of
water, mud, falling rocks, trees, and other large debris,
are most likely within small valleys that drain steep slopes.
Landslides are powerful and potentially deadly, capable of
washing out roads, bridges, and homes. People living in areas
prone to landslides should be aware of the danger and be prepared
to act.

$$

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
444 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...INCREASED THREAT OF LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY...

A band of rain has already developed across the mountains, well in
advance of the rain associated with Helene, and the rain band is
expected to continue to develop across the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia tonight. Periods of heavy rain will occur
tonight and through the day Thursday, followed by additional
rounds of heavy rain associated with Helene Thursday night and
Friday morning. The heavy rain is expected to result in
significant flooding along creeks and streams. This has the
potential to be an extremely rare event with significant and
damaging flash-flooding along numerous streams.

The excessive rain that falls through Thursday before Helene
arrives will gradually raise the threat for landslides across the
mountains and foothills. Enough rain is expected along and near
the Blue Ridge Escarpment and upper French Broad Valley to result
in a few landslides before Helene arrives. Once the rain from
Helene moves in late Thursday, the threat for landslides and
debris flows will increase sharply, and the threat will continue
through Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of ten to fifteen inches
are possible near the Blue Ridge Escarpment, before the rain
moves out. Locally higher amounts are possible. Rainfall of ten
inches or more in similar storms has been associated with a
greatly increased risk of landslides and debris flows.

Landslides, including fast-moving debris flows consisting of
water, mud, falling rocks, trees, and other large debris,
are most likely within small valleys that drain steep slopes.
Landslides are powerful and potentially deadly, capable of
washing out roads, bridges, and homes. People living in areas
prone to landslides should be aware of the danger and be prepared
to act.

Here are recommended actions to consider both ahead of the storm
and when the heavy rain begins.

Before the Storm:

1. If you live on a mountainside or in a cove at the base of a
mountain, especially near a stream, be ready to leave in advance
of the storm or as quickly as possible should rising water,
moving earth, or rocks threaten. Identify a sturdy shelter on
higher ground such as a well-built home, church or school.

2. Stay alert. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio or local media for
possible flash flood warnings.

During the Storm:

1. Avoid driving near steep slopes or crossing stream
valleys, particularly at night. Never try to drive across a
flooded road. Potential hazards to drivers include washed-out
roads, bridges, and falling or flowing large debris. Turn
Around, Don`t Drown!

2. Immediately move away from steep slopes and small streams in
steep valleys. Seek refuge on higher ground away from streams,
preferably in a sturdy shelter.

3. Stay alert. Many landslide fatalities occur when people are
sleeping. Be aware that short intense bursts of rainfall are most
likely to cause landslides.

4. Keep tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for the latest
warnings and statements regarding this potentially dangerous
weather event.

[North Balti Zen]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is just me totally speculating, but in regards to the “the severity of this flood threat didn’t reach people ahead of time” discussion, I wonder how much of that comes from most people now getting their weather from Apple weather app and the like. I’m sure local broadcasters and NWS were appropriately warning ahead of time, but how many people does that reach now? People look at their app and think “oh bummer, rainy week ahead” but maybe didn’t get anything related to the seriousness?

YUP.

 

literally, if I hadn’t texted him repeatedly and pasted the very strong language from NWS in their warning they put out before the rain event started it would not have been something he paid attention to. He watches no news really. 

[North Balti Zen]

@gymengineertotally correct - I thought NWS nailed this and that was what I pasted to my father-in-law in part and stressed to him that the language they were using was not done lightly. 
 

I don’t think NWS did anything wrong, I just don’t know how you get out warnings anymore to large numbers of people in these situations. We don’t have shared media experiences anymore. People get their news and updates from so many different places  not sure what can be done. 

[WxUSAF]

43 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

@gymengineertotally correct - I thought NWS nailed this and that was what I pasted to my father-in-law in part and stressed to him that the language they were using was not done lightly. 
 

I don’t think NWS did anything wrong, I just don’t know how you get out warnings anymore to large numbers of people in these situations. We don’t have shared media experiences anymore. People get their news and updates from so many different places  not sure what can be done. 

I don’t use the apple weather app so I don’t know if this is true, but I’d guess it probably shows there’s a flood watch/warning or whatever. But if you don’t click on that banner, you wouldn’t see this was something exceptional. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

@gymengineertotally correct - I thought NWS nailed this and that was what I pasted to my father-in-law in part and stressed to him that the language they were using was not done lightly. 
 

I don’t think NWS did anything wrong, I just don’t know how you get out warnings anymore to large numbers of people in these situations. We don’t have shared media experiences anymore. People get their news and updates from so many different places  not sure what can be done. 

The NWS/NHC did nothing wrong. They were spot on.

[North Balti Zen]

Right. That’s literally what I said. Did you think I was blaming NWS when I said they did nothing wrong?

 

Was just having  a more philosophical discussion/set of musings over  how fragmented media is now and how relatively much harder it is to get the word out to people. And also said not sure what if anything can be done. No worries , won’t discuss it here or anywhere. My bad. 

[vastateofmind]

38 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Right. That’s literally what I said. Did you think I was blaming NWS when I l said they did nothing wrong?

Was having  more philosophical discussion about how fragmented media is now and how relatively much harder it is to get the word out to people. And also said not sure what if anything can be done. No worries , won’t discuss it here or anywhere. My bad. 

You have NOTHING to apologize for in terms of "your bad!" This was a combination of (probably, literally) millions of folks in that part of the country not paying attention to the "cone of impact" (and let's be honest, very few do unless they perceive the "center line" of the hurricane is coming directly OVER them), and also a combination of GA/NC/VA mountain folk thinking that this couldn't POSSIBLY affect them, despite the forecasts...AND, let alone, the amount of rain they had BEFORE Helene came through!

Now, I'm that guy that watches and reads TOO much regarding the NWS forecasts and CWA discussions, but I take all of those info resources into account when I read everything that y'all share here in terms of analysis. But end of the day...there are WAY too many non-weather geeks out there...who don't follow what most of us follow here (e.g., hurricane forecasts, extended outlooks, etc.).

Not gonna deny it -- the aftermath of Helene in the mountains of VA/NC/SC/GA is horrendous and heartbreaking. But I also feel like we ALL need to be a little more prepared for when disasters (natural and otherwise) are poised to strike us. Particularly in a region like the DMV.

[stormy]

13 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

You have NOTHING to apologize for in terms of "your bad!" This was a combination of (probably, literally) millions of folks in that part of the country not paying attention to the "cone of impact" (and let's be honest, very few do unless they perceive the "center line" of the hurricane is coming directly OVER them), and also a combination of GA/NC/VA mountain folk thinking that this couldn't POSSIBLY affect them, despite the forecasts...AND, let alone, the amount of rain they had BEFORE Helene came through!

Now, I'm that guy that watches and reads TOO much regarding the NWS forecasts and CWA discussions, but I take all of those info resources into account when I read everything that y'all share here in terms of analysis. But end of the day...there are WAY too many non-weather geeks out there...who don't follow what most of us follow here (e.g., hurricane forecasts, extended outlooks, etc.).

Not gonna deny it -- the aftermath of Helene in the mountains of VA/NC/SC/GA is horrendous and heartbreaking. But I also feel like we ALL need to be a little more prepared for when disasters (natural and otherwise) are poised to strike us. Particularly in a region like the DMV.

What is this????????

[WxWatcher007]

I think two of the other challenges are that 1) we’re seeing events that are outside of our frame of reference. How do you adequately communicate the worst case scenario when a region has literally seen anything close into it? Worst on record doesn’t cut it when the impacts are almost biblical or an order of magnitude worse than the worst. 

2) I think media/NHC really need to reconsider how TCs and impacts get categorized. I think the NHC has done tremendous work over the years talking more about hydro impacts, but categorizing TCs based strictly on winds seems increasingly inadequate given what we’re seeing even with non-hurricanes. Much of the media is still too focused on wind and coastal impacts imo. Not all to be sure, but many. 

[North Balti Zen]

Fwiw, I thought this piece by CWG was excellent - they discuss some of what we’ve touched on - they also agree NWS was outstanding with the dire forecast and tried to get the danger and warnings out/communicated and also discussed how hard that is/can be. 
 

again, I am not having this discussion to blame anyone/or the NWS. Was more musing over how hard it is to get general warnings out anymore when people receive their news from so many different sources etc.  

 

https://x.com/capitalweather/status/1841109507834826775?s=46&t=rKRo5ildsXjOFWkYH7wDlg

[WxWatcher007]

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 15 (6)
Hurricanes: 10 (4)
Major Hurricanes: 5 (1)
 

Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (H)

[WxWatcher007]

Note how the EPS has some stronger members in the Gulf too. 

[WxWatcher007]

On 10/1/2024 at 4:57 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 15 (7)
Hurricanes: 10 (4)
Major Hurricanes: 5 (2)
 

Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie

Kirk & Leslie

[RandyHolt]

On 9/30/2024 at 5:12 PM, North Balti Zen said:

Right. That’s literally what I said. Did you think I was blaming NWS when I said they did nothing wrong?

 

Was just having  a more philosophical discussion/set of musings over  how fragmented media is now and how relatively much harder it is to get the word out to people. And also said not sure what if anything can be done. No worries , won’t discuss it here or anywhere. My bad. 

Well said and no apologies needed. Main stream media is completely polarized and many most? have had to tune it out to keep their sanity.  Even if one watched, we'd have found they were covering the same issues as they have for 8 straight years and make no mention of the dangers far inland enough to save lives.

The only way to connect to most people is via mobile emergency texts and requesting the warnings be shared with friends family and neighbors. I have found emergency texts are far too localized. There was a tornado 10 minutes drive from me and I got no alert. Only those IN the path got alerts. I know, they don't want to cause panic and fear blah blah but a simple severe storm broad area alert was absent. NWS can only do so much.

Only us weather folks read all the full NWS alerts.

[WxWatcher007]

Well I’ll say the lid came off. All of this activity came from September 8 on which is crazy. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 15 (7)
Hurricanes: 10 (5)
Major Hurricanes: 5 (2)
 

Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H)

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Milton will likely be on the board soon, and it may be a major problem for Florida.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Milton will likely be on the board soon, and it may be a major problem for Florida.

Really hoping it won‘t turn north into NC. 

Getting close to 100 ACE on the year, and Milton is likely to push us over maybe towards 110. Right around average. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Really hoping it won‘t turn north into NC. 

Getting close to 100 ACE on the year, and Milton is likely to push us over maybe towards 110. Right around average. 

 

It has been a dramatic uptick, made all the more incredible because the first half of the peak had zero activity.

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It has been a dramatic uptick, made all the more incredible because the first half of the peak had zero activity.

Kirk and Leslie both have plenty of gas in their tanks as per NHC, so we may reach or exceed 120-125 ACE after these plus Milton

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Kirk and Leslie both have plenty of gas in their tanks as per NHC, so we may reach or exceed 120-125 ACE after these plus Milton

My peak season forecast isn’t looking as awful as it once did.