2024 Tropical Tracking Thread

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro and GGEM get substantial rain into the subforum from future Helene. Gfs runs into the subsidence wall at the Potomac and shears it out. 

There are some subtle differences between the key features despite the same general idea on how this evolves- for one, the closed h5 low off the Canadian Maritimes is stronger/further west on the GFS such that the confluence/convergence aloft on the west side appears to inhibit significant lift for our region. That feature is weaker and a tad further east on the Euro.

[stormy]

I have been watching that H5 lp rotate east from Superior to Maine and north Atlantic all week knowing that it controlled the ultimate trac of future Helene. Southwest suppression will likely control the agenda.

 Latest models believe I may get an inch with D.C. perhaps a half inch.

Moderate to severe drought continues in Augusta though recent rains have been very beneficial to top soil moisture.  The water table continues to drop, down 12 ft. since late May.

[CAPE]

Latest thinking from WPC-

WPC forecast includes a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET for Friday and Saturday given good overall agreement with respect to the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine and the handling of the cutoff low to the west. Switched to the GEFS/ECENS means for the latter part of the period as uncertainty the overall pattern grows.

The forecast precip field shrinks/dissipates significantly for day 5- i.e nothing for our region east of the mountains.

[WxUSAF]

Euro and GGEM still give the entire subforum some rain from Helene. Gfs shreds it, but did move NE with the trough in Atlantic Canada and weakened it.

[WxUSAF]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro and GGEM still give the entire subforum some rain from Helene. Gfs shreds it, but did move NE with the trough in Atlantic Canada and weakened it.

Happy hour continues the trend on GFS and it gets some rain to us Friday.

[WxWatcher007]

This is an absolutely exhausted WxWatcher007 reporting live from Perry, FL. I just got here so I can’t give much of a lay of the land, but I know from the logistical challenges already that this is a serious one.

I may need to reposition, as it’s unclear what, if any, places will be open here in the region Thursday. In a sturdy ride out spot at the moment.

The goal this time is (hopefully) no need to move (I’m hedging east) and a very good pressure trace of the center.

Will be reporting on conditions too of course. For now though, first food of the day and a little rest. Wish us all luck down here. 
 

[weatherCCB]

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is an absolutely exhausted WxWatcher007 reporting live from Perry, FL. I just got here so I can’t give much of a lay of the land, but I know from the logistical challenges already that this is a serious one.

I may need to reposition, as it’s unclear what, if any, places will be open here in the region Thursday. In a sturdy ride out spot at the moment.

The goal this time is (hopefully) no need to move (I’m hedging east) and a very good pressure trace of the center.

Will be reporting on conditions too of course. For now though, first food of the day and a little rest. Wish us all luck down here. 
 

Stay safe brother.   Looking forward to your posts.

06z hurricane models looking quite ominous 

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, weatherCCB said:

Stay safe brother.   Looking forward to your posts.

06z hurricane models looking quite ominous 

Thanks. Ominous and maybe a touch west too. This is going to be an extraordinarily impactful storm for the region, and it’d actually be a bit easier for me if it did force me into the panhandle—easier highway access. 

[rclab]

42 minutes ago, weatherCCB said:

Stay safe brother.   Looking forward to your posts.

06z hurricane models looking quite ominous 

 

22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks. Ominous and maybe a touch west too. This is going to be an extraordinarily impactful storm for the region, and it’d actually be a bit easier for me if it did force me into the panhandle—easier highway access. 

Please stay safe I already know you’ll stay strong. As always …l

 

[WxWatcher007]

Long post looking at the various hazards. 
 

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

First light is beginning to reveal a much more organized TC near the Yucatán Channel, a harbinger of things to come. 

 

Recon, radar, and satellite all show a modestly organizing and gradually intensifying TC that will likely be a hurricane by the 11am full advisory. 

With shear reduced over the system itself and dry air most likely out of the way as an inner core forms in the next 12-18 hours, it looks like the runway is primed for Helene to take off in intensity late tonight into Thursday provided the center does not traverse the Yucatán.

You can tell dry air—something that has plagued systems across the basin all season—is not a factor at this time because of the expansive outflow and deep CDO convection that has persisted all night. I would watch the SE quadrant in case some of the drier air to the south wraps in. 

 

We have a system that’s already sub-980mb as a result, but that’s only part of the story.

Generally speaking, the wind field is still broad. A smaller system would be a hurricane by now with a tighter center. Helene is poised to become one of the largest named storms since 2000.

This will have tremendous implications for the forecast and scale of region wide impacts. 

First, the wind.

 

This is extraordinary to look at—tropical storm warnings from the Keys to coastal GA for a Gulf storm and hurricane warnings well into southern GA.

The storm already has TS winds expanding 175 miles out and that’ll grow substantially over the next day. In fact, you can already see how large Helene is using zoomed out satellite.

 

It’s going to take time for the RMW to tighten enough for major hurricane wind speeds to be found. What we’ll likely see are very low pressures with an expansive area of “modest” hurricane force FL then surface winds before RI takes place and tightens the inner core at that point. That said, I don’t believe the HAFS depictions of a small core and large TS field. This may limit peak wind potential some.

That’s not to say the potential for something on the order of a category four isn’t there because it is, but we’ll just have to see how the storm reacts to falling pressure.

Second, the surge. 

What may be lost in peak wind potential will likely be more than made up for in surge, which may be catastrophic in the Big Bend region and major in other locations. 

 

The difference in category will matter little given the surge potential. While a stronger or weaker peak wind could do significant damage inland, the coastal impacts are already baked in. 

Third, the rain.

If wind and surge weren’t enough—and both have the potential to be high end—rainfall looks to be a major concern well inland. A Predecessor Rain Event looks likely, and a HIGH risk for excessive rainfall has been issued. Extreme rainfall is possible and inland folks should not let their guard down just because Helene is currently well south. 

 

Fourth, severe potential.

Finally, we have severe potential on the east side of Helene. I think we need to see how banding sets up tomorrow and Friday, but a D2 enhanced risk is pretty significant for a TC.

 

This is a long post that didn’t even go into track (though I’m closely watching potential shifts west, possibly worsening wind impacts into the Panhandle and southern GA)

 

 

But for the general public the center will matter less than usual given the size of the wind field and surge potential all along the coast. 

 

[Terpeast]

Looking ominous, especially that 12+ storm surge and high flood risk in the southern apps. Stay safe @WxWatcher007

[frd]

31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Long post looking at the various hazards. 
 

 

Stay safe. Looking forward to your updates and pics. 

The outflow is pushing South and expanding rapidly. Looking for tremendous deepening shortly. And wow, talk about size of this,  will be a huge storm with an extensive area of TS winds. 

[toolsheds]

I have a friend stuck in Cancun today.  If he sends over Pics...I'll post. 

[MN Transplant]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks. Ominous and maybe a touch west too. This is going to be an extraordinarily impactful storm for the region, and it’d actually be a bit easier for me if it did force me into the panhandle—easier highway access. 

Do you know if highways 98/27 stayed passable during Idalia?  That seems to be a key for access.

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Looking ominous, especially that 12+ storm surge and high flood risk in the southern apps. Stay safe @WxWatcher007

Yeah it is nasty. Let it keep trending west a little bit. I dont want that much rain up here in the mountains. The Smokey Mountains are going to be disaster. 

[WxWatcher007]

24 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Do you know if highways 98/27 stayed passable during Idalia?  That seems to be a key for access.

27 was fine and my guess is 98 was good too. The difference here is the wind field is likely to be so much bigger that I think it’s going to be tough on state roads. Ideally for me, I’d end up closer to I-10. If the models hold that would be the case, and with the forward speed we’d still get big winds inland. 

[mattie g]

HWRF has Helene getting to 918 mb

[osfan24]

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

HWRF has Helene getting to 918 mb

LOL. Also gives it a head start with a 971 mb reading at 1 pm. It's almost 2 pm and it's almost 10 mb higher than that.

[North Balti Zen]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

27 was fine and my guess is 98 was good too. The difference here is the wind field is likely to be so much bigger that I think it’s going to be tough on state roads. Ideally for me, I’d end up closer to I-10. If the models hold that would be the case, and with the forward speed we’d still get big winds inland. 

Good luck as always, and, as always, if undecided please play it safe.

Really hadn't paid much attention to this but just now scanning the entire set-up and belatedly realized western NC getting some sort of predecessor rain event and then looks to get the in-land tropical storm - my father-in-law is retired in Brevard, NC and their local forecast seems to be for 10-15 inches of rain starting late this afternoon through Friday and some model runs apparently with 20 inches in that area. That would be...bad.  Just sent him a long message to grab some supplies and plan on staying put.  Too many small streams by roads up where he lives to chance being anywhere but home once this starts and hopefully stay put until it is over. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just got our first little rain band from the system. It’s absolutely massive.

[stormy]

Latest 18z NAM gives me 1.76" from Helene and D.C. nothing.........................

I hope this is wrong because D.C. could use a drenching.

[clskinsfan]

15-20 foot surge? Yikes!

 

The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

[Bob Chill]

Been in MD since Sunday taking care of all kinds of stupid stuff related to our relocation lol. Dang kids 

Heading to penhook tomorrow. Thinking about spending Friday in sandy level on the east side of smith. Not like it matters all that much because it will just be windy rain at the worst. Kinda liking the center pass to the west. Could mix the east winds pretty good if the depression is still strong enough. Could be a fun time on the ridges of western NC for some peeps. 

@WxWatcher007I enjoyed your last chase vids. This storm is a different animal so be careful when you're standing in the middle of the street during the eyewall approach. I want to see the destruction in real time so maybe livestream before you end up in Southern GA with a 100mph tail wind. I have an old motorcycle helmet if u need it

[dailylurker]

I'd love a live Jebwalk as the clear sky stadium moves over your location. Good luck. Safely first!

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I'd love a live Jebwalk as the clear sky stadium moves over your location. Good luck. Safely first!

That would be the ultimate…except it’ll be at 11pm in utter darkness.  

[87storms]

Quite a bit of room to intensify…

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=08&length=12&dim=undefined

[clskinsfan]

Looking pretty ragged right now with a lot of dry air to deal with. 

[WxWatcher007]

If not for the globals, I would’ve repositioned west by now. Will reassess in the morning and early afternoon. 

[MN Transplant]

10 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Looking pretty ragged right now with a lot of dry air to deal with. 

Proximity to the Yucatan isn't helping.  Outflow looks good and there will still be solid strengthening, but my take is that this thing is just way too big and moving too fast to achieve really high-end status.  Still, the size will mean that the impacts are significant.

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Proximity to the Yucatan isn't helping.  Outflow looks good and there will still be solid strengthening, but my take is that this thing is just way too big and moving too fast to achieve really high-end status.  Still, the size will mean that the impacts are significant.

I think this storm will be remembered for it's massive flooding. It looks like a real disaster for the Smoky Mountains and the Southern Appalachian Mountain region. Their will be the typical wind damage at the coast that, that area sees every few years. IMO that won't be the big story with this rain bomb.