2024 Tropical Tracking Thread

[CAPE]

The atmospheric blocking pattern looks persistent on the means. The h5 ridge in that position will maintain a surface high to the north/northeast. Remains to be seen if moisture associated with any tropical/subtropical low off the SE coast can make it this far north if that block doesn't weaken some.

 

[stormy]

The Euro AI now completely misses us to the east next week.

The 18z GFS totally disagrees......................... A nice test..................................

[WxWatcher007]

With Francine disposed of, I’m finally on the board…on September 12

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 15  (1)
Hurricanes: 10 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 5 (0)

[yoda]

00z GFS would bring some fun to the region next Tuesday into early Wednesday 

[WxWatcher007]

Another one. Gordon in the eastern Atlantic. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 15  (2)
Hurricanes: 10 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 5 (0)

[WxWatcher007]

While there's nothing concrete yet, the area off the SE coast is now an orange with 40% odds of development. 

In the next 48 hours, a non-tropical low is increasingly likely to develop along a stalled boundary--a common method of tropical genesis in the homebrew region. With a ridge building over the top of the boundary, it looks like anything that develops is likely to get steered toward the coast. It's a fairly uncertain evolution as the non-tropical low could develop tropical characteristics this weekend/early next week, become subtropical, or stay nontropical. 

I think what is different between this one and 99L, which almost became tropical but then went extratropical and hit Nova Scotia is 1) this is likely to develop much further south in a more tropical rather than baroclinic environment, and 2) that the ridging to the north is likely to prevent an escape route. 

Where it goes is still a bit unclear, but the model look right now is somewhere along the Carolina coast and then possibly NW into the region. For something not terribly far out, there's a lot to be determined. 

[stormy]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

While there's nothing concrete yet, the area off the SE coast is now an orange with 40% odds of development. 

In the next 48 hours, a non-tropical low is increasingly likely to develop along a stalled boundary--a common method of tropical genesis in the homebrew region. With a ridge building over the top of the boundary, it looks like anything that develops is likely to get steered toward the coast. It's a fairly uncertain evolution as the non-tropical low could develop tropical characteristics this weekend/early next week, become subtropical, or stay nontropical. 

I think what is different between this one and 99L, which almost became tropical but then went extratropical and hit Nova Scotia is 1) this is likely to develop much further south in a more tropical rather than baroclinic environment, and 2) that the ridging to the north is likely to prevent an escape route. 

Where it goes is still a bit unclear, but the model look right now is somewhere along the Carolina coast and then possibly NW into the region. For something not terribly far out, there's a lot to be determined. 

The most important part of your interpretation is that "the ridging to the north is likely to prevent an escape route".  This can be very important for rain producing systems or snow producing systems in winter.  Historically, when the right combo. occurs with blocking to the north, look out.

[WxWatcher007]

Started a thread in the main forum but sharing here. MA impacts are possible so definitely worth some conversation. How’s the drought since Debby’s rains?

22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Although we do not have an established low pressure yet, the NHC is designating the area off the southeast coast an orange with 40% odds of development. Given how quickly the timeline for development could be, I think it’s worth separating out the discussion.

 

1. Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal 
boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline 
this weekend. Thereafter, the low may develop some subtropical or 
tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical depression 
could form early next week while the system moves generally 
northwestward toward the coast. Additional information on this 
system can be found in products issued by your local National 
Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by 
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Those following know that I’ve been talking about the southeast coast since late August. I view this latest homebrew development as part of a broader window that has been open since early September—a window open due to repeated troughing in the east that has left stalled and quasi-stalled frontal boundaries off the coast.

We saw it with 99L, which did not develop but brought rain and wind to Nova Scotia as an unusually strong late summer extratropical (read: baroclinic) low.

We then had a follow up wave after 99L that quickly moved OTS.

Now we’re looking at another stalled boundary off the coast and a non-tropical low (or two) that looks increasingly likely to develop along the boundary. 

 

 

The one we care about looks to develop off the Carolina coast. Again it’s non-tropical at the start but as the boundary decays it’s possible the low acquires tropical characteristics or becomes subtropical. The model signal has ebbed and flowed, but has come back today—and unlike 99L I think this has a better chance.

1) Unlike 99L, this is likely forming further south and west than 99L, in a more tropical environment.

 

2) With ridging likely to build over the top and some troughing to the west, this is likely to be steered into the US. 

 

 

Now, we’re not talking about a major hurricane or anything like that, especially with shear possible nearby, but strong winds and coastal flooding seem likely. We’ll have to watch for intensity trends this weekend.

 

[MN Transplant]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Started a thread in the main forum but sharing here. MA impacts are possible so definitely worth some conversation. How’s the drought since Debby’s rains?

 

Really dry for many of us.  I'm at 1.37" over the last month.

[WxWatcher007]

40 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Really dry for many of us.  I'm at 1.37" over the last month.

I guess any little bit would help

[yoda]

Pretty decent hits on the 00z CMC, NAM, and GFS.  00z ICON I think would be the worst hit of the 00z suite

ETA - 00z Euro agrees

[CAPE]

Models are in better agreement now on the HP sliding off the NE coast. This allows the low off the SE coast to track northward with an impressive feed of tropical moisture. We need this.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Models are in better agreement now on the HP sliding off the NE coast. This allows the low off the SE coast to track northward with an impressive feed of tropical moisture. We need this.

This is gonna be interesting with the Orioles' being home next week...lol Our record with rain delays is AWFUL this year for some reason, but hey...if we get an extra day or two off, who knows? 

[WxWatcher007]

I think there’s still a lot to be ironed out with this one, so even a model consensus right now could shift depending on where the low forms. 

There’s not a tangible low yet but that should change by tonight as the boundary is now offshore and firing scattered convection.

[WxWatcher007]

Wrapping up Francine. It’s still wild to me that I chase. There’s really nothing like it. 

 

[dailylurker]

I need dry conditions right now for my cannabis crop. It looks like Tuesday is wet and humid. From what I can tell, it looks like dry high pressure pressing in from the north and NE by Wednesday. Do we get into lower humidity after the storm?

[yoda]

12z CMC is a pretty big hit... 2-6".  12z GFS is decent... but less QPF.  12z ICON is nice for the drought stricken region of the SW portion of the LWX CWA - 3-5" down there, 1-3" elsewhere 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z CMC is a pretty big hit... 2-6"

Really throws a lot of moisture into the region. The ICON (which has gained some respect from me in its handling of Beryl and Francine) is further north in the low track and quite wet as well. 

[stormy]

On 9/12/2024 at 6:14 PM, stormy said:

The Euro AI now completely misses us to the east next week.

The 18z GFS totally disagrees......................... A nice test..................................

The AI caved to the GFS and about an inch of rain.......................... The war between a strong ridge to the northeast and tropical/hybrid low pressure shifting northwest from Cape Fear will have the final word.

Of interest, the ICON has jumped from .25" for Augusta to around 4.00".

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, stormy said:

The AI caved to the GFS and about an inch of rain.......................... The war between a strong ridge to the northeast and tropical/hybrid low pressure shifting northwest from Cape Fear will have the final word.

Of interest, the ICON has jumped from .25" for Augusta to around 4.00".

Looks pretty similar to the ICON with a further north track, but it never really gets inland. 

[stormy]

32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Looks pretty similar to the ICON with a further north track, but it never really gets inland. 

I have been interested in watching the AI with curiosity about possible future superiority compared to physics based models.  

A comparison of the last 4 runs is not impressive.

[yoda]

12z Euro is a big hit rain wise... 2-3" up to the i66 corridor... 4-7" in the in the southern and SW portions of the LWX CWA.  Showers continue through Friday 

 

[frd]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

12z Euro is a big hit rain wise... 2-3" up to the i66 corridor... 4-7" in the in the southern and SW portions of the LWX CWA.  Showers continue through Friday 

 

 

Appears we have growing concensus. This might be the best chance of a general rainfall in a long time for the area.  

[CAPE]

Mount Holly seems to be gaining confidence. "1-2 inches possible" wording here for Tuesday. I'll believe it when it happens lol.

[frd]

25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Mount Holly seems to be gaining confidence. "1-2 inches possible" wording here for Tuesday. I'll believe it when it happens lol.

The reality of rainfall disbelief now exist in the same matrix as snowfall in the Mid Atlantic.

 

Do you want the red pill or the blue pill

Mr. CAPE ? 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s quite a robust mid-level feature on radar. Even seeing some lightning in the convection there. 
 

 

It still has some time over the warmest waters off the coast, so we’ll see if that feature is able to become fully tropical. It looks like it’s getting there. I didn’t expect that pocket of low shear. 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS and EURO.  Let's see which model is closer to being correct when we tally the totals early Thursday..

[nw baltimore wx]

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS and EURO.  Let's see which model is closer to being correct when we tally the totals early Thursday..

Aren’t they both pretty much the opposite of what they each depicted 48 hours ago?

[Weather Will]

19 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Aren’t they both pretty much the opposite of what they each depicted 48 hours ago?

Yup....   flip flop city...

[WxWatcher007]

Speaks to how much uncertainty that there still is with where the low goes. Shortly after this we’ll be tracking the possible CAG and development in the western Caribbean. 

The MDR is a lost cause but the homebrew regions continue to look ripe the next few weeks.