yoda Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Up the Bay! Isabel redux 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 1 hour ago, yoda said: Isabel redux Always one model run each season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 On 9/3/2024 at 10:39 PM, WxWatcher007 said: People are trying to do them now with 65-70% of the season to go so yes Don’t get me wrong it looks bad—historically bad—but it’s like canceling winter on December 31, which people do every year as we know lol. If the season does bust - I've always wanted someone to start with this: "Were scientists not fortune tellers" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scope1 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 6Z gfs still has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 9 minutes ago, scope1 said: 6Z gfs still has it. But now it has another hurricane to its NE so it recurves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Always one model run each season #neverforget 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024090612&fh=258 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7 Author Share Posted September 7 Worth watching the SE coast next week as the window for something to form along the persistent troughing remains open. Development could happen as a high builds over the top, pushing it into the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8 Author Share Posted September 8 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Just quickly, my areas of interest: 1. BoC low/Invest 91L—80% Looks most likely to break our NS drought. Like I said before, it’s hard to bet against the BoC topography, though I’m not sure we’d have this area as likely to pop without old 90L and the boundary assisting what was an anemic wave. Western Gulf should watch closely. 2. Invest 92L—50% I won’t lie. I’m still nervous that this next iteration of the MT breakdown will fail to immediately produce, but like Windspeed said the tropical Atlantic portion of the MDR is looking substantially better than it did even a week ago. The apparent organization tonight gives me a little more confidence something is developing here. 3. MT Part II—40% This is the eastern end of the trough that will take more time to organize, if at all. A future AEW coming off Africa may help give the area the kick it needs to develop. Models are waffling on which part of the MT develops first, but it looks like 92L is in the lead. This is the easternmost NHC orange. 4. SE Coast—20% There’s still a signal late next week for a low to develop along a stalled boundary, and this may factor in the eventual track of 92L. What has my interest here is 1) the further south potential for development in a more tropical genesis favored zone, and 2) the possibility of a ridge developing over the top, potentially cutting off a quick exit. Two things 99L didn’t have. Long way away so not worth much attention. I’m not going to declare anything until it happens, but I do wonder if the lid is starting to come off…from west to east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9 Author Share Posted September 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 No one talking about the GFS storm? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: No one talking about the GFS storm? It's been insisting for a couple days that a hurricane is coming up the bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 01:06 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:06 AM This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from Gonzales, LA, just southeast of Baton Rouge. It was a long travel day—much longer than I thought at just under 2,000 miles, as I decided to adjust my staging point well east of Lafayette before my flight early this morning. Here the vibe is quite relaxed, much more than usual. Perhaps it’s the fact that Louisiana has been a magnet for some of the strongest hurricanes in recent memory. In fact, on my way to Gonzalez I passed through Iowa, LA, where I spent hours in the northeast eyewall of the extraordinary beast that was Laura. Francine is now a hurricane, and at the risk of sounding like Josh I’m not terribly enthused. Francine is intensifying, but it is fighting dry air and now shear as it makes the turn NE and heads toward the coast. Tonight is when more significant intensification could occur so I’m watching closely. Dry air and shear could easily blunt that. It’s warm and humid here with some light rain and occasionally gusty winds. I should be able to rest tonight as the action is subject to take place tomorrow. I’m closely watching the track. I think I’m in a good spot, and I chose this location in large part for its highway access to quickly get west or east if necessary. Baton Rouge is 30 minutes west. New Orleans is an hour east. By contrast, Morgan City is 90 minutes south. Obviously it’s closer to the coast so best of luck to the chasers there. I’d rather not have to report from Mississippi tomorrow, but we’ll see. As is usually the case, I’ll post when I can. @MillvilleWx is in contact with me and will let y’all know I’m ok if I lose power/cell service. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 03:48 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 03:48 AM Now at 85mph/979mb. Core quickly coming together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 10:02 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 10:02 AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 10:44 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 10:44 AM Setting aside Francine, there’s a strong operational model signal for that SE coast area I’ve been highlighting to develop as soon as this weekend. Will need to watch how far north that tracks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Wednesday at 10:47 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:47 AM 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Setting aside Francine, there’s a strong operational model signal for that SE coast area I’ve been highlighting to develop as soon as this weekend. Will need to watch how far north that tracks. Is that going to be tropical? Subtropical? Neither? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 01:08 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:08 PM 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Is that going to be tropical? Subtropical? Neither? Hybrid becoming tropical it seems to me. Gets its start with some kind of baroclinic assist then goes tropical as the original boundary dissipates. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scope1 Posted Wednesday at 01:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:19 PM Gfs has some impacts for our area but not a direct hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 01:53 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:53 PM Now a lemon. Meanwhile, three invests in the MDR and they all look pretty good despite the barren landscape that is the tropical Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 02:41 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 02:41 PM Not much happening yet but the rain has started. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Wednesday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:04 PM 12z GFS is pretty much a miss, 12z CMC gets heavy rain into most of the region early next week - Monday into Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 07:29 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 07:29 PM The hours before landfall as the eye wobbles are the absolute worst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Wednesday at 08:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:32 PM @wxmvpete is all grown up! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 09:05 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 09:05 PM Francine up to cat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 10:08 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 10:08 PM Pressure starting to fall a bit as winds pick up. First time it’s looked tropical out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 10:44 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 10:44 PM Business picking up… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Thursday at 12:32 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:32 AM @WxWatcher007is doing okay currently. He lost power and winds are ramping up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Thursday at 12:58 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 12:58 AM 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Thursday at 03:04 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:04 AM Rain advancing north into Virginia by late Monday from likely tropical development in South Carolina coastal area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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