toolsheds Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 30 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said: Several wedge tornadoes being reported in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. Lke this one Horrible set up before the storm hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Out of curiosity I looked at the NWS graphics on the TB office site. Very strange to be saying hurricane conditions possible for tonight???? Tonight Tropical Storm Conditions Expected With Hurricane Conditions Possible Low: 76°F change location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 This tornado outbreak in southern Florida is insane right now. 10 active conformed tornadoes on the ground as I am typing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Reed Timmer has a very interesting live going on right now. It looks like the south side of the eye is starting to look healthier. The outter eye wall is just starting to hit Reeds location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Getting rowdy here in Punta Gorda. Should be an interesting few hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 So my parents place is in Palmetto. Just over the bridge from Bradenton. Bradenton had a recorded gust of 100mph. Looking at current radar their place looks to be in some of the worst winds. Their place is a manufactured home. I have a not good feeling about it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 10 Author Share Posted October 10 11 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: So my parents place is in Palmetto. Just over the bridge from Bradenton. Bradenton had a recorded gust of 100mph. Looking at current radar their place looks to be in some of the worst winds. Their place is a manufactured home. I have a not good feeling about it. Hope everything works out for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Sarasota obs gust to 93 before the eye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 10 Author Share Posted October 10 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Sarasota obs gust to 93 before the eye Might be even worse on the backside/sting jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 14 hours ago, clskinsfan said: This tornado outbreak in southern Florida is insane right now. 10 active conformed tornadoes on the ground as I am typing this. over 100 tornado warnings in the span of a few hours. crazy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hope everything works out for them. So update. My parents hear from the manager of their neighborhood this morning. Their home is fine. Only lost two trees out front. Could have been way worse. The whole area is without power and so not have a timeframe for when it will be back. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 10 Author Share Posted October 10 My peak season forecast is running out of time (Aug 20–Oct 20) and in the coming 10 days I think I have 2-3 more chances (two long shots) to get names on the board. 1. Western Caribbean, where the models led by the GFS have a signal for another system to potentially come out of a CAG or other vorticity seedling. This is the best chance for something else to pop imo before the lid goes back on the basin—probably until November. 2. Eastern Atlantic, where the NHC has a lemon but I don’t think TCG odds are good at all. 3. Eastern seaboard, where there’s a modest signal for some type of non-tropical low associated with a trough that could become subtropical. This has not worked at all this season, so I doubt it happens here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: My peak season forecast is running out of time (Aug 20–Oct 20) and in the coming 10 days I think I have 2-3 more chances (two long shots) to get names on the board. 1. Western Caribbean, where the models led by the GFS have a signal for another system to potentially come out of a CAG or other vorticity seedling. This is the best chance for something else to pop imo before the lid goes back on the basin—probably until November. 2. Eastern Atlantic, where the NHC has a lemon but I don’t think TCG odds are good at all. 3. Eastern seaboard, where there’s a modest signal for some type of non-tropical low associated with a trough that could become subtropical. This has not worked at all this season, so I doubt it happens here. You should have chased the ENFORSEEN tornado outbreak in Florida. A ton of sarcasm here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Thursday at 01:34 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 01:34 PM Not quite time to shut down, but we’re almost there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Saturday at 05:46 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:46 AM Took a long time, but that western Caribbean area produced. Big win for the GFS. The other invest that started in the eastern Atlantic is looking good too. Might get another short lived one before the forecast period ends. Interesting that my NS/H/MH proportions are spot on. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (9) Hurricanes: 10 (6) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (MH), Nadine 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Saturday at 02:17 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:17 PM 2/3 of my highlighted areas on Oct 10 ain’t too shabby. NHC completely whiffed on Oscar. Damn near has an eyewall this morning. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (10) Hurricanes: 10 (6) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (MH), Nadine, Oscar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Saturday at 05:48 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:48 PM Oscar in the brink of becoming a hurricane 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Saturday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:49 PM Oscar in the brink of becoming a hurricane Probably is. What a miss by the models - so small they just can’t see it well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Saturday at 05:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:53 PM 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Oscar in the brink of becoming a hurricane Looks like Oscar heading west southwest and being pushed that way from a ocean low moving south well off the East Coast. If I extrapolate the track west-southwest looks like he is heading for the northeastern coastline of Cuba get ready there for a surprise albeit a quick one being how tiny this storm is. It will be interesting to see what the intensity will be with such a small circulation could ramp up quick but looks like a lot of dry air and a front pushing down from the north and a lot of northeasterly shear which is going to really force and possibly shred the system southwestward. It is perfectly tucked between for now that's interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Saturday at 06:01 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 06:01 PM 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Probably is. What a miss by the models - so small they just can’t see it well? It’s a pretty incredible miss all around imo. This looked like at TC last night imo. Satellite derived winds may have had trouble seeing the small circulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Saturday at 07:52 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 07:52 PM Unless there’s another surprise this will be my final result. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (10) Hurricanes: 10 (7) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (MH), Nadine, Oscar (H) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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