Terpeast Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: My peak season forecast isn’t looking as awful as it once did. Have you noticed our hurricane seasons getting extended and lasting longer into the fall? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 If Milton does reach Cat 3 and is a still a hurricane at landfall, that would be 9 total hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and 5 US hurricane landfalls by October 10th. This season has rightly justified the pre-season alarm, even if the total number of named storms is more modest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Author Share Posted October 5 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: Have you noticed our hurricane seasons getting extended and lasting longer into the fall? Yes—there’s some data out there that shows that early August has gotten quieter over the years, while the back half of the peak, say September 20-October 20 has become more active. We’ve had several backloaded seasons in recent years and I think if the MDR stability trend continues we will see more of such seasons as the MDR will remain hostile until stability has had time to fade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Author Share Posted October 5 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (8) Hurricanes: 10 (5) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 I asked this awhile back in a different thread, and no one addressed it. Probably because it’s such a stupid question, but I thought that I read somewhere and sometime ago that a track over Tampa was unusual. Maybe not? I bring it up because I have generally been skeptical anytime I see a track like the one on the NHC site now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I asked this awhile back in a different thread, and no one addressed it. Probably because it’s such a stupid question, but I thought that I read somewhere and sometime ago that a track over Tampa was unusual. Maybe not? I bring it up because I have generally been skeptical anytime I see a track like the one on the NHC site now. Yes, a track over Tampa is unusual. They are one of the most vulnerable locations, but the predominant track from the south means that it would have to be a unique track to bend it perfectly to put them in the right front quadrant. However, Milton is completely different, coming from the west. It'll take a couple of days to really get the track down, but a somewhat perpendicular hit to the west FL coastline could be really problematic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Ugh I have two co workers who live in Sarasota the flooding from normal rain has been getting worse there over the years. After Helene and now this it could be catastrophic for some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, aldie 22 said: Ugh I have two co workers who live in Sarasota the flooding from normal rain has been getting worse there over the years. After Helene and now this it could be catastrophic for some. I've got a friend who just moved there from EC in late August.welcome to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 I gotta tell you guys. We at WPC along with NHC have had this potential in the back our minds for a few days now. It got real this morning through the afternoon. Not looking forward to what’s to come from Milton. At least this go around I’ll be off tomorrow for my sisters Baby Shower and then work the ERO on Monday before off the follow few days before nights. I was the lead chair for Helene, a truly surreal experience for myself. Those were my first days with no trainer in the SBF (Senior Branch Forecast) desk. I made it and I feel very confident, but it took a mental toll on all of us. Tropical season is a cruel mistress 10 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 6 Author Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: I gotta tell you guys. We at WPC along with NHC have had this potential in the back our minds for a few days now. It got real this morning through the afternoon. Not looking forward to what’s to come from Milton. At least this go around I’ll be off tomorrow for my sisters Baby Shower and then work the ERO on Monday before off the follow few days before nights. I was the lead chair for Helene, a truly surreal experience for myself. Those were my first days with no trainer in the SBF (Senior Branch Forecast) desk. I made it and I feel very confident, but it took a mental toll on all of us. Tropical season is a cruel mistress You did a phenomenal job in the lead chair. Glad you can get some rest before this next one. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 I'm afraid to show what happens when I advance the timeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 8 minutes ago, KAOS said: I'm afraid to show what happens when I advance the timeline. A 3rd major hitting just north of Tampa then running the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 We are here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 What is the lead time for NHC, re: posting watches and warnings? And do they only post along coastlines? Maybe a dumb question, but just curious. Visiting family in Orlando at the moment. And when was the last time Orlando was under a hurricane warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 6 Author Share Posted October 6 43 minutes ago, SLPressure said: What is the lead time for NHC, re: posting watches and warnings? And do they only post along coastlines? Maybe a dumb question, but just curious. Visiting family in Orlando at the moment. And when was the last time Orlando was under a hurricane warning? 48 hours for a watch and 36 hours for a warning. They do issue inland watches/warnings. For Helene there were TS warnings all the way to western NC. Don’t know when Orlando was last under a hurricane warning but given the current track forecast it looks like this could be a hurricane across the peninsula. Watches are likely at some point today since TS conditions are likely by Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 The GEFS and CMCE are much more realistic than the EPS with the NHC expectations for Milton in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 WB 6Z EURO AI....catastrophic rains for central Florida with Tampa in the bullseye. If I had loved ones there I would tell them to get out of town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 End of GFS last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 3 hours ago, mappy said: End of GFS last night Finally something interesting up here lol Edit: Latest run of the GFS has dancing low pressure with some weird slingshot effects going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 6 Author Share Posted October 6 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (8) Hurricanes: 10 (6) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (H) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 My parents just got put under mandatory evacuation orders starting at 2pm tomorrow. They are in Manatee Co. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Hurricane Milton Advisory #5A - 2:00 PM, Oct 6, 2024 Basin AL Location 22.5 N, 94.0 W Moving E 6 mph Winds 80 mph Pressure 29.18 in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfStock1 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Ugh. I have in-laws in Bradenton. Unfortunately they aren't the evacuating type, and I believe will be riding it out. They're in zone B - the second zone; which is in line with 14 ft storm surge inundation. They're somewhat inland, but near bayous. This is looking to potentially be the worst storm they've had there, and they've lived there for many decades. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 My parents sold their house in Zephyrhills (just NE of Tampa) back in the spring and decided to forego getting another second home. Curious to see how that spot fares, but I know they're glad not to have to worry about a property in the path of Milton. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfStock1 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 So the latest public-facing graphic looks like this. One if the problems with this graphic, IMO, is that it leaves it very unknown / ambiguous as to what is the expected strength at landfall. Going by this graphic - the storm could be anywhere in the range of Cat 1 to Cat 5 when it hits the coast. Obviously a huge difference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Some of these model runs are . I hope Tampa metro residents are seriously considering evacuation south or north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyHolt Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 hour ago, WolfStock1 said: So the latest public-facing graphic looks like this. One if the problems with this graphic, IMO, is that it leaves it very unknown / ambiguous as to what is the expected strength at landfall. Going by this graphic - the storm could be anywhere in the range of Cat 1 to Cat 5 when it hits the coast. Obviously a huge difference! Agree their cone graphic is indeed dated and has needed a reboot IMO for some time. Don't make me bust out the sharpie. Potentially extreme (landfall) events - maybe they could at least expand on "M" (its buried in the bottom right corner? - it could be top dead center) or include very strong direct language to open eyes at the top. M = MAJOR HURRICANE FORECAST TO HIT FLORIDA Know that many people don't or can't read maps. Map reading seems a low priority in our education. They could include a drudge style siren gif. Make a gif version with additional info and maybe even pinpointing current expected landfall, timing expanding on more than just eye's landfall, expected rainfall BEFORE, spaghetti's, prep tips or specific risks to that area. The info/graphic doesnt have to be the exact same as for OTS NLT events. We are in the digital age yet using a jpg which just seems... antiquated. Yep take the extremely dangerous risk of creating "panic" for extremely dangerous events. Let's live dangerously. We do anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Latest from NHC: Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now