clskinsfan Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I think this storm will be remembered for it's massive flooding. It looks like a real disaster for the Smoky Mountains and the Southern Appalachian Mountain region. Their will be the typical wind damage at the coast that, that area sees every few years. IMO that won't be the big story with this rain bomb. Agree. I cant see this reaching major status. I could be wrong. But I dont think it is going to have enough time to do it. The flooding though is going to be disastrous in the Smokey's. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 20 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I think this storm will be remembered for it's massive flooding. It looks like a real disaster for the Smoky Mountains and the Southern Appalachian Mountain region. Their will be the typical wind damage at the coast that, that area sees every few years. IMO that won't be the big story with this rain bomb. Except for the storm surge in the immediate coast. But other than that, I agree 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 I think it's going to get to Category 7. Lots of hot water and all that kind of stuff. Could be wrong, but I think I know enough to make a bold call. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 34 minutes ago, mattie g said: I think it's going to get to Category 7. Lots of hot water and all that kind of stuff. Could be wrong, but I think I know enough to make a bold call. JB says it has 15hrs and rapid intensification has just started. So I'd say a cat 7 call is the safe play. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 38 minutes ago, mattie g said: I think it's going to get to Category 7. Lots of hot water and all that kind of stuff. Could be wrong, but I think I know enough to make a bold call. Bearish. Why not just go with Cat 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Well 6z gfs was interesting in the Day 8 to 12 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Bearish. Why not just go with Cat 10? I think if Helene had a couple more hours over water then she could get there. I'm just not sure I can make that call without a bit more time for her to strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 The only thing I know about tropical systems I learned from watching the pretty colors on the goes. With that in mind, Helene looks to be getting healthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 30 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: The only thing I know about tropical systems I learned from watching the pretty colors on the goes. With that in mind, Helene looks to be getting healthy. Based on recent trends, it should make low end Cat 3 easily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 NOAA plans to issue a category 4 of 4 for high risk recessive rainfall into the southern Appalachians. This is going to be unprecedented. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 12 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: NOAA plans to issue a category 4 of 4 for high risk recessive rainfall into the southern Appalachians. This is going to be unprecedented. It's already pouring down there and has all night. I can't imagine. This could be a 100-300 year flood IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 8 minutes ago, dailylurker said: It's already pouring down there and has all night. I can't imagine. This could be a 100-300 year flood IMO. Saw a CoCoRAHS map of that area and totals were already 6-9” for many. We’re visiting Asheville in November… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Decided to hang in Perry for now but will reassess a little later when I have a better long term motion of the eye. For now, a bit far but obviously getting closer. Activity has definitely picked up around here as Helene approaches. Stay safe everyone in the path. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 hour ago, WeatherShak said: NOAA plans to issue a category 4 of 4 for high risk recessive rainfall into the southern Appalachians. This is going to be unprecedented. So…20-30 inches of rain forecast for Brevard, NC - where my father-in-law is. Beyond catastrophic for them. They have elevation. There will be landslides along with unreal flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 58 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Saw a CoCoRAHS map of that area and totals were already 6-9” for many. We’re visiting Asheville in November… Wow! It might be more like a 500 year flood in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 It’s going to be extremely bad there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Based on recent trends, it should make low end Cat 3 easily. I dont know. It is still sucking on dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Looking pretty healthy on the vis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Category 3 now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 Cautiously optimistic Perry is the right spot. The roads have emptied for the most part and stores are closed. Final hours before impact. Hot and dry here as the worst of the rain has set up west of Tallahassee. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 hour ago, anotherman said: Category 3 now. Cat 7 or bust 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 Fuller update 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It has been quiet all day here in Perry. There has been plenty of heat and humidity but virtually no rain as everything has set up west of here. I drove around a bit earlier and the roads have cleared out substantially as stores close and board up. I’m actually surprised that a lot of places haven’t boarded up. If the heading holds, we’re likely to get a big hit. Some of the damage from prior storms still remains. I’m cautiously optimistic about my spot. I’m in a good building with a number of reporters, chasers, and national guard. Of course a lot of locals are here too. This is by far the hardest part of a chase: the anxiety of watching every frame of the radar to make sure you’re in the right location. Will probably start my pressure trace in an hour or two if the storm heading holds. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 There aren't many hurricanes that have resulted in such a wide geographical area of wind products- 14 states! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Two days straight the 18z NAM wants to keep DC East dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Cat 7 or bust Settle for a cat 4? Looking like a pretty good bet at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Yeah. I was wrong again. For gods sake dont take my views as an educated person saying them. It is beasting now. Closed off and bombs away from here. Contracting eye and a beast has been born. Prayers for the Big Bend of Florida. Horrific for them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 33 minutes ago, CAPE said: Settle for a cat 4? Looking like a pretty good bet at landfall. Deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 50 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. I was wrong again. For gods sake dont take my views as an educated person saying them. It is beasting now. Closed off and bombs away from here. Contracting eye and a beast has been born. Prayers for the Big Bend of Florida. Horrific for them Eyewall is tightening up. Cat 7 confirmed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 It amazes me that the current weather models can see that rapid intensification. From a hurricane that was eating a ton of dry air to a beast. They predicted it. Basically human forecasting will be gone in the next 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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