yoda Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 00z CMC at the end of its run sure would be interesting up here. 00z GFS looked interesting too even though it went up the eastern seaboard and stayed to our east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 I guess it's worth watching the Caribbean in about a week's time then. Though by tonight at 0z runs it's likely to be 1500 miles away from those runs from last night...if it even exists at all. Snoozefest weather lately (locally) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 I'll take the 06z GFS day 8-10... 50 to 70kt 850mb wind speed for 12 hours with heavy rain... probably tornado threat since we are on the eastern side... and SLP in the 985-990mb range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19 Author Share Posted September 19 My peak season forecast may go down in flames, but my pattern recognition has been pretty good lol. Just now, WxWatcher007 said: While it’s worth watching a possible one off in the dead tropical Atlantic portion of the MDR and perhaps something weak in the central Atlantic for TC genesis, obviously the western Caribbean is the place to pay closest attention. The homebrew signal I’ve been talking about since late August has evolved over the last week. Originally, the signal was for genesis potential off the SE coast and in the Gulf due to stalled frontal boundaries from anomalously strong late summer troughs. That led to our three invests, one which hit NS as a non tropical cyclone, one which became a PTC but fell just short of a tropical designation, and one that helped seed what became Hurricane Francine. Now we’re looking at a CAG signal, which as I’ve said before is a more tropical genesis pathway than what we formerly had. These can spin up one (most likely) or two TCs. While the ceilings are usually low, this environment seems like it has higher end potential given the extent of OHC, instability, and low wind shear—one area of the cool neutral ENSO that did come to fruition from the hyperactive seasonal forecasts. Everything remains on the table, and I think anyone in the Gulf and to a lesser extent folks on the EC should be paying attention to this. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 Thinking the forecast for future Helene is going to be unusually tricky given the very blocked mid latitude flow and potential for multiple cut off lows around the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20 Author Share Posted September 20 58 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Thinking the forecast for future Helene is going to be unusually tricky given the very blocked mid latitude flow and potential for multiple cut off lows around the CONUS. Agree. I think that’s going to make where the system develops—on the western or eastern side of the Yucatán—really critical. An eastern solution could take it up the east coast, whereas something in the central Gulf could be a real disaster with inland momentum getting halted leading to a moisture bomb somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 On 9/20/2024 at 2:43 PM, WxUSAF said: Thinking the forecast for future Helene is going to be unusually tricky given the very blocked mid latitude flow and potential for multiple cut off lows around the CONUS. Latest guidance suggests it will be captured as a trough cuts off in the mid south, becoming part of a strengthening omega block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Chance it comes up the coast by the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 33 minutes ago, mappy said: Chance it comes up the coast by the weekend? It looks like it rains itself out over the Midwest. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 13 minutes ago, dailylurker said: It looks like it rains itself out over the Midwest. Great, thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Just now, mappy said: Great, thanks! I'd keep an eye on it though. You know how models flip flop. I'm hoping for some sunshine and nice fall weather. I'm over the dreary conditions and my huge plants are in bloom and need dry air and sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 49 minutes ago, mappy said: Chance it comes up the coast by the weekend? Seems that as Lurker mentioned some rains remain in the Midwest on the left side of the Omega block and other moisture stays depressed to our South due to the upstream block and what a block it is . Here is how it looks on day 6 and 7 per the WPC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 15 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I'd keep an eye on it though. You know how models flip flop. I'm hoping for some sunshine and nice fall weather. I'm over the dreary conditions and my huge plants are in bloom and need dry air and sunshine. 14 minutes ago, frd said: Seems that as Lurker mentioned some rains remain in the Midwest on the left side of the Omega block and other moisture stays depressed to our South due to the upstream block and what a block it is . Here is how it looks on day 6 and 7 per the WPC Thank you both. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 WB 6Z EURO AI compared to 0Z big shift... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 The Omega Block no longer exists on the 6Z AI............. That's why Helene tracks to Hatteras instead of Cincinnati..................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 I feel like we are becoming a bonafide no fun-zone interesting weather of any kind Oy let us have SOMETHING for crying out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 WB 6Z EURO AI compared to 0Z big shift...Still dies out in southern VA. We cant even get tropical remnants into the mid-atlantic. This region has become boredom central for weather weenies. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I feel like we are becoming a bonafide no fun-zone interesting weather of any kind Oy let us have SOMETHING for crying out loud. At ease. I still got a good feeling this winter is going to surprise to the upside. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 WB 12Z GEFS....think models are still figuring out how much rain we will get from the next tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Euro gets rain to the Potomac from future Helene. GGEM and icon give all of us rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro gets rain to the Potomac from future Helene. GGEM and icon give all of us rain. Can all the rain stay off the eastern shore? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 The GFS makes the hurricane and all its moisture literally disappear anywhere north of Southern VA. I've never quite seen anything like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 The GFS makes the hurricane and all its moisture literally disappear anywhere north of Southern VA. I've never quite seen anything like it. Francine did same thing. Just died/evaporated around arksnsas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 The AI model is out on a limb because the others maintain an omega block. 12z will be interesting. With the block, ECM gives southwest zones .90, GEM .50", GFS .12" (deadstop at Roanoke will change) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 1 hour ago, mappy said: Can all the rain stay off the eastern shore? lol Ocean's Calling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 5 minutes ago, toolsheds said: Ocean's Calling? Yes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 5 minutes ago, mappy said: Yes! Omg THE KILLERS are playing there. Just looked. Jealous. Wish I could go. Killers and Strokes are the 2 bands at the top of my list to see at this juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: Omg THE KILLERS are playing there. Just looked. Jealous. Wish I could go. Killers and Strokes are the 2 bands at the top of my list to see at this juncture. Got tickets for my wife and daughter. She loves the Killers too! Picking her up from Drexel Thursday night and taking her home on Sunday :-) I'm going to be their Uber all weekend and work on beach place while they are having fun. :-) The things I do for my girls! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Omg THE KILLERS are playing there. Just looked. Jealous. Wish I could go. Killers and Strokes are the 2 bands at the top of my list to see at this juncture. I’m so pumped. So many good bands to see. 1 hour ago, toolsheds said: Got tickets for my wife and daughter. She loves the Killers too! Picking her up from Drexel Thursday night and taking her home on Sunday :-) I'm going to be their Uber all weekend and work on beach place while they are having fun. :-) The things I do for my girls! You’re a good guy! Hope they have a blast! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 0z euro and GGEM get substantial rain into the subforum from future Helene. Gfs runs into the subsidence wall at the Potomac and shears it out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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