WxWatcher007 Posted August 5 Author Share Posted August 5 Wind won’t be the headline under virtually any scenario, but this helps illustrate how even inland lows are likely to stay somewhat robust. It’ll be interesting to see what the NHC does with their late period forecast for when Debby goes post tropical. Also, I think it’s the for a thread. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wind won’t be the headline under virtually any scenario, but this helps illustrate how even inland lows are likely to stay somewhat robust. It’ll be interesting to see what the NHC does with their late period forecast for when Debby goes post tropical. Also, I think it’s the for a thread. Probably so. Fire it up, tropical man! First really angry band coming ashore in HHI now. Conditions definitely going downhill and a tornado warning close by. Lots of alcohol procured, so we're ready... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wind won’t be the headline under virtually any scenario, but this helps illustrate how even inland lows are likely to stay somewhat robust. It’ll be interesting to see what the NHC does with their late period forecast for when Debby goes post tropical. Also, I think it’s the for a thread. Do it, WxWatcher007. Time for a thread. You're our tropical expert. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Just now, dailylurker said: Do it, WxWatcher007. Time for a thread. You're our tropical expert. Second. Let @WxWatcher007 have the honors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 5 Author Share Posted August 5 Ok I’ll whip something up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wind won’t be the headline under virtually any scenario, but this helps illustrate how even inland lows are likely to stay somewhat robust. It’ll be interesting to see what the NHC does with their late period forecast for when Debby goes post tropical. Also, I think it’s the for a thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Looking beyond Debby...WB EPS for mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8 Author Share Posted August 8 On 8/6/2024 at 8:01 AM, Weather Will said: Looking beyond Debby...WB EPS for mid month. We’re going to quickly pivot from Debby to this new lemon. Forget the op runs—the environment ahead looks favorable, and the steering pattern as it stands preliminarily is for a close approach. Beware the cutoff trough—if we can get one now, the door is opened for repeats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 58 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We’re going to quickly pivot from Debby to this new lemon. Forget the op runs—the environment ahead looks favorable, and the steering pattern as it stands preliminarily is for a close approach. Beware the cutoff trough—if we can get one now, the door is opened for repeats. Latest run for mid month. WB OZ EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 7 hours ago, Weather Will said: Latest run for mid month. WB OZ EPS If you had a non refundable Disney trip from Aug 17-22 how nervous would you be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8 Author Share Posted August 8 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If you had a non refundable Disney trip from Aug 17-22 how nervous would you be? Not much but I’d keep an eye on it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 EPS and GEFS both have interesting looking waves coming off Africa towards the Antilles in the next few days. Op runs show storms that curve north and avoid CONUS. Active period coming up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: If you had a non refundable Disney trip from Aug 17-22 how nervous would you be? Lol dude Disney in August is like visiting Mickey on the surface of the Sun. Hurricane will at least keep you cooler 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Lol dude Disney in August is like visiting Mickey on the surface of the Sun. Hurricane will at least keep you cooler I know. But there are really only 3 weeks in the year I can take the kids because of my work schedule. Xmas, Easter, or the 3rd week of Aug. I’ve been all 3. Yea it’s hot but I’d prefer Aug. Way way way way way less crowded. Disney is good about having numerous inside attractions and places to cool off. Dress light. Being a water bottle. It’s not too bad. Bests 3 hour lines for everything the other two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know. But there are really only 3 weeks in the year I can take the kids because of my work schedule. Xmas, Easter, or the 3rd week of Aug. I’ve been all 3. Yea it’s hot but I’d prefer Aug. Way way way way way less crowded. Disney is good about having numerous inside attractions and places to cool off. Dress light. Being a water bottle. It’s not too bad. Bests 3 hour lines for everything the other two weeks. Yeah by late August the southern schools are back in session which drops the crowds. We went in August once and my kids wilted by 10am… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8 Author Share Posted August 8 GFS shows you exactly what I mean. Today’s trough cuts off and draws Debby north. If it were flat and progressive it would’ve kicked Debby east. The very next trough is in a different location, but it effectively cuts off too…right in the danger zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: GFS shows you exactly what I mean. Today’s trough cuts off and draws Debby north. If it were flat and progressive it would’ve kicked Debby east. The very next trough is in a different location, but it effectively cuts off too…right in the danger zone. Recurves out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8 Author Share Posted August 8 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Recurves out to sea For this far out, I just want to see what the trough looks like, and it has potential imo. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: If you had a non refundable Disney trip from Aug 17-22 how nervous would you be? With my luck, very nervous....WB 12Z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Sure the GFS has got this nailed down 10 days out... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 GFS was a close approach Wxwatcher007 is spot on. have to really watch this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 32 minutes ago, weatherCCB said: GFS was a close approach Wxwatcher007 is spot on. have to really watch this one. Euro looked like it was about to do a Sandy left turn into New England at 240 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Euro looked like it was about to do a Sandy left turn into New England at 240 Odds seem (as always) low at this point. But if that trough gets cutoff or goes sufficiently negative i don't see why that -couldn't- happen. Seems lots of options are on the table (as always). But that is the big wildcard scenario IMO for east coast impacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 On 8/8/2024 at 5:15 PM, psuhoffman said: I know. But there are really only 3 weeks in the year I can take the kids because of my work schedule. Xmas, Easter, or the 3rd week of Aug. I’ve been all 3. Yea it’s hot but I’d prefer Aug. Way way way way way less crowded. Disney is good about having numerous inside attractions and places to cool off. Dress light. Being a water bottle. It’s not too bad. Bests 3 hour lines for everything the other two weeks. Ernesto just wants to meet Mickey Mouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Way out there, but GEFS shows potential landfall on the NC/SC coast at 200+ hours. Shows up on the op GFS 12z too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Just now, Paleocene said: Way out there, but GEFS shows potential landfall on the NC/SC coast at 200+ hours. Shows up on the op GFS 12z too. WTF is this bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9 Author Share Posted August 9 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: With all of the conversation in the main thread covering this wave, I figured it was time to start a dedicated thread. The theme of vigorous waves emerging in the Atlantic this season continues with a new wave in the central Atlantic. Models are effectively unanimous in developing this wave as it reaches the Antilles in a few days. On the ensembles, the genesis signal is robust across guidance, increasing confidence that Ernesto isn’t too far away. What has captured attention are two things. First, the potential development and intensification environment looks favorable. With high end SST anomalies and OHC, there will be fuel. In addition, the wave is currently south of SAL and has a very good moisture envelope, reducing the chances at least as of this post, that dry air won’t be a tremendous inhibitor. Shear looks manageable for the foreseeable future. The result is the guidance signaling strong development, though at different stages. The second thing is obviously the track. Again—this is something for the Antilles to watch. Guidance brings this close as early as a few days from now early next week. Longer term prospects are unclear, but this doesn’t immediately scream as a safe recurve pattern with the potential of a cutoff trough in the eastern CONUS and ridging in the Atlantic. I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to stay away from long range declarative statements. This is something to watch. It is not a bona fide threat to the continental U.S. at this time. Watch the ensembles and where/how the long range trough develops. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 On 8/8/2024 at 10:46 AM, psuhoffman said: If you had a non refundable Disney trip from Aug 17-22 how nervous would you be? Lol, I am pretty nervous right now. I'm supposed to be in Bermuda from the 21st to the 23rd. At sea out of New York starting on the 18th. I'm getting twitchy over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 4 hours ago, Brianonymous said: Lol, I am pretty nervous right now. I'm supposed to be in Bermuda from the 21st to the 23rd. At sea out of New York starting on the 18th. I'm getting twitchy over here. I've been on two Bermuda cruises from Baltimore. I'm convinced of the weirdness of that Bermuda Triangle. Both trips had interesting things happen. Both trips we were supposed to stay over night. THe first trip, something went wrong with the engine and we could only stay for a day. The second trip was supposed to be for two nights, and we lost a night. Add in a potential tropical storm. I'm a believer in the triangle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 19 hours ago, adelphi_sky said: I've been on two Bermuda cruises from Baltimore. I'm convinced of the weirdness of that Bermuda Triangle. Both trips had interesting things happen. Both trips we were supposed to stay over night. THe first trip, something went wrong with the engine and we could only stay for a day. The second trip was supposed to be for two nights, and we lost a night. Add in a potential tropical storm. I'm a believer in the triangle. did you so in September 2019 into that storm with the funny name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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