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2024 Tropical Tracking Thread


WxWatcher007
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30 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Same. GFS isn't exactly encouraging...Euro appears to be on an island right now.

The GFS and ICON each have very different  evolutions of how Debby plays out.  I would say each model is on its own island at this point with the GFS most likely on Gilligan’s Island.  

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15 minutes ago, MDstorm said:

The GFS and ICON each have very different  evolutions of how Debby plays out.  I would say each model is on its own island at this point with the GFS most likely on Gilligan’s Island.  

I'd lean towards the GFS post South Carolina. By then it's under the influence of the Mid latitude weather features.

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While the many individual members take multiple different paths to get there, the ensemble means for precipitation through the end of next weekend are all very wet for our area, without the east-west gradient seen in some recent deterministic solutions.

gem-ens_apcpn_eus_fh192-192.gif

eps_apcpn_eus_fh192-192.gif

gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_fh186-186.gif

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I'm still waiting for confusion to clear up hopefully tomorrow. We still have the deterministic models a thousand miles apart.

The ensembles are the best at this point for a much needed soaking rain. A triple blend of the CMC, GEFS and ECM ens  give me 3.01" through Saturday.

The deterministic 3 give me a blend of 2.06".

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS....low adjustment; finally in sync with the other models.

IMG_3751.png

IMG_3752.png

It isn't really though. Look at h5. Big differences wrt the timing and depth of the NS energy. Euro and CMC are pretty similar.

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The broad brush of the models is similar.  Misses the Tues/Wed shallow trough and meanders near the GA/SC coast and then interacts with the second trough later in the week which pulls it north.  How exactly it interacts with the second trough and how deep the trough digs affects our chances for heavy rain.  The Euro is risky because it is a very shallow trough that shunts the storm off before it is able to climb too much.  Obviously the ICON is on the opposite side.

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The broad brush of the models is similar.  Misses the Tues/Wed shallow trough and meanders near the GA/SC coast and then interacts with the second trough later in the week which pulls it north.  How exactly it interacts with the second trough and how deep the trough digs affects our chances for heavy rain.  The Euro is risky because it is a very shallow trough that shunts the storm off before it is able to climb too much.  Obviously the ICON is on the opposite side.

Agree. Still quite a lot to sort out, starting with how quickly this gets into the Atlantic, how long it stays there, how much it reorganizes, and where it comes back inland. At least a rain shutout looks unlikely…

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