WxUSAF Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 57 minutes ago, MDstorm said: 12z Euro is a soaker. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z ICON, western suburbs remain in drought conditions. That would a gut punch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 I hope the ICON is wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 28 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I hope the ICON is wrong Same. GFS isn't exactly encouraging...Euro appears to be on an island right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 30 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Same. GFS isn't exactly encouraging...Euro appears to be on an island right now. The GFS and ICON each have very different evolutions of how Debby plays out. I would say each model is on its own island at this point with the GFS most likely on Gilligan’s Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 15 minutes ago, MDstorm said: The GFS and ICON each have very different evolutions of how Debby plays out. I would say each model is on its own island at this point with the GFS most likely on Gilligan’s Island. I'd lean towards the GFS post South Carolina. By then it's under the influence of the Mid latitude weather features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 WB 18Z ICON: not over yet....at end of run. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 WPC still going big 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 WB 18Z GFS at Day 4 compared to ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 WB 18Z Day 5 GFS and ICON 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Even gfs pulls a lot of moisture up the front though. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Slow the ICON down by about 12 hours as it passes through and we're talking. Still would lean towards the GFS with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 While the many individual members take multiple different paths to get there, the ensemble means for precipitation through the end of next weekend are all very wet for our area, without the east-west gradient seen in some recent deterministic solutions. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 I'm still waiting for confusion to clear up hopefully tomorrow. We still have the deterministic models a thousand miles apart. The ensembles are the best at this point for a much needed soaking rain. A triple blend of the CMC, GEFS and ECM ens give me 3.01" through Saturday. The deterministic 3 give me a blend of 2.06". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 We take the 00z ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 00z CMC tries to flood the i95 corridor... especially from DC to EZF to RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 8 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z CMC tries to flood the i95 corridor... especially from DC to EZF to RIC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 00z UKIE FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 WB 0Z EURO now has the brutal cutoff for NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 WB 6Z GFS....low adjustment; finally in sync with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 The predicted the euros path a month ago. Congrats to the same places that have been swamped all summer. Let's hope that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Latest 6Z ICON and GFS. Note: ICON clears rain out Friday evening. GFS a day later. I will take either one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 GFS finally abandons that westward jog, as I expected. ICON nails the ideal track for drought stricken areas.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS....low adjustment; finally in sync with the other models. It isn't really though. Look at h5. Big differences wrt the timing and depth of the NS energy. Euro and CMC are pretty similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 6z WPC map is 3-6” for the entire subforum 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 The broad brush of the models is similar. Misses the Tues/Wed shallow trough and meanders near the GA/SC coast and then interacts with the second trough later in the week which pulls it north. How exactly it interacts with the second trough and how deep the trough digs affects our chances for heavy rain. The Euro is risky because it is a very shallow trough that shunts the storm off before it is able to climb too much. Obviously the ICON is on the opposite side. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 5 Author Share Posted August 5 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The broad brush of the models is similar. Misses the Tues/Wed shallow trough and meanders near the GA/SC coast and then interacts with the second trough later in the week which pulls it north. How exactly it interacts with the second trough and how deep the trough digs affects our chances for heavy rain. The Euro is risky because it is a very shallow trough that shunts the storm off before it is able to climb too much. Obviously the ICON is on the opposite side. Agree. Still quite a lot to sort out, starting with how quickly this gets into the Atlantic, how long it stays there, how much it reorganizes, and where it comes back inland. At least a rain shutout looks unlikely… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Woof 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Woof Arkansas is the new Stephens City 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 GFS brings 3-4" across the area. It looks like it forms a new low as it moves offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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