Weather Will Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 WB 12Z EPS precip totals through Day 9. And prob. Of 2 inches or more through Day 9. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 When we gave a named storm, someone should start a thread.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Somebody will complain. Most of Delaware at 5 inches or more. At least there is hope for some significant rainfall. I hope the drought areas get hit hard. Will know more in a couple days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I mean, 2-4” ain’t bad… Double it and we're good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: When we gave a named storm, someone should start a thread.... Let's not jinx anything. That's like starting a storm thread in the winter at HR240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Jinxed. GFS is hilarious. Stalls then flies west like a bat out of Hell. All the way to Alabama now at 144. SE VA north the same daily rain we have been getting for 2 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Still lots to work out. Slight differences at 18Z between WB GFS and ICON at Day 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Why do people use the ICON at all? I can't remember when it's ever been correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 4 Author Share Posted August 4 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Why do people use the ICON at all? I can't remember when it's ever been correct. Crazy enough, it did better than all the globals for Beryl’s track. That said, we should be blending and using ensembles. 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just popping in. It’s not uncommon to have mixed signals as a TC is trying to essentially find its footing in an environment. While there is a well defined low level center, and pretty good satellite presentation, recon and radar make it clear that there’s substantial work to be done to build the kind of inner core necessary for the intensification the NHC expects. The center needs to tighten from its current elongated state so that convection can efficiently wrap around the center and begin a more significant pressure fall. There’s time for that to happen, hence the forecast. The environment is excellent for intensification and I expect Debby to take advantage of it tomorrow at a gradually faster pace. Shear is low, and Debby is under an anticyclone. Obviously, SSTs are anomalously warm. Historically so. Dry air is nearby, which could be a somewhat limiting factor until the system develops an inner core (time sensitive) The biggest limiting factor is time. This is a system that could pop extremely fast, and both the FL coast and SE coast should be prepared for a hurricane. How quickly an inner core develops to take advantage of a very favorable environment is key. SHIPS shows the potential very well. Those are high numbers, but it’s far from a guarantee that high end RI occurs. But some of this wind discussion loses sight of the real issue. There’s a lot to sort out, but this is a big hydrological system potentially up the coast between the system itself and a trough enhanced Predecessor Rain Event (PRE). Finally, track after FL is highly uncertain. While I am intrigued by the op solutions driving this well inland in the SE, the super ensemble is a bit different. Just keep that in mind as the more exotic solutions could (or could not) smooth out. Track images from Tomer’s site. Just posted in the main thread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 GFS is interesting. Not for our area, but interesting lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 28 minutes ago, dailylurker said: GFS is interesting. Not for our area, but interesting lol Color me shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Color me shocked. There has been little indication of a hit up here, so that it probably not worth being hyped about. What we really want is for the tropical moisture to get banked up against a front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Honestly, total confusion with the models and NHC. Should have a better handle by Monday or Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 26 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: There has been little indication of a hit up here, so that it probably not worth being hyped about. What we really want is for the tropical moisture to get banked up against a front. And that is what happens in the majority of guidance. Euro most consistent, but even the 6z gfs goofy track depiction pulls the moisture up along the boundary next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 22 minutes ago, stormy said: Honestly, total confusion with the models and NHC. Should have a better handle by Monday or Tuesday. NHC is not confused. They're doing an excellent job and have been all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 It's funny seeing the hype with the social media meteorologist. I've see rainfall maps posted with crazy totals. The comments by soccer moms that follow these guys are freaking out. Reminds me of winter lol. Meanwhile, in reality, we have 0 clue what or where it's going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: NHC is not confused. They're doing an excellent job and have been all season. I absolutely did not say that NHC is not doing a good job. A definition of confusion is "lack of understanding or uncertainty". They admit with the 5 am discussion that the future and intensity north of Florida is "low confidence". A pure understanding of "low confidence" is uncertainty, therefore confusion of track north of Florida. Certainty would create high confidence. That is not possible at this time. This is not a deficiency of performance by NHC. This is honesty based on very erratic model data. I expect better model agreement by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 15 minutes ago, dailylurker said: It's funny seeing the hype with the social media meteorologist. I've see rainfall maps posted with crazy totals. The comments by soccer moms that follow these guys are freaking out. Reminds me of winter lol. Meanwhile, in reality, we have 0 clue what or where it's going. You are exactly right! This is a sad commentary on the world that we live in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Last night’s model runs took away our drought denting rain 🥲. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 WB 6Z EURO brings rain Tuesday evening from frontal passage. Rain over Norfolk area is from Debby. Trend over the last 24 hours has shifted that shield of rain SE of DMV for later this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 One of the tools we’ve been utilizing for forecasts in violatle setups has been AI models because they have a deep data set to work off of and don’t utilize complex physical properties to base the forecast. They are good for assessing track trends based on the current data instituted in initialization then go off pattern recognition for future evolution. Not always right, but can give a ballpark of what to expect. AI focus has been along the coastal plain and less inland advancement of deep tropical moisture. This has been the case for multiple days on the ECMWF AIFS and Graphcast, as well as the GFS Graphcast. This should be a red flag for the previous GFS/ECMWF iterations that showed wildly deviant outcomes compared to AI. This is the next Gen of tools to use to monitor potential trends, especially when the AI guidance is steady state in the forecast. There is still a lot of assessment to be done to analyze just how well the AI models are verifying, so it’s not full proof, but just like when the deterministic is wildly different from its ensembles, that should be a clue as to the expected trend. Another note is AI is not practical for rainfall/precip magnitude but more for a general placement of organized precip based in large scale synoptic regimes. It still struggles with disorganized convective patterns due to the intrinsic variables at hand with complicated thermodynamic processes that control the initiation prospects. That might be a bit before AI catches on there, so take those types of outputs with a grain of salt. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 12z WPC update still favors a very rainy week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 The GFS is improved this run. WTF lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 WB 12Z ICON, western suburbs remain in drought conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 12z WPC update still favors a very rainy week Yes, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z ICON, western suburbs remain in drought conditions. Toss, please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 4 Author Share Posted August 4 19 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z ICON, western suburbs remain in drought conditions. What a cut off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 GFS leaves Debby cut off down south and does not bring her this way! Interesting and not impossible. I think we saw similar model runs earlier. Then a new system shows up! Doh! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 12z Euro is a soaker. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Debby is doing a center relocation or fujiwara for the past 3 or 4 hours.....Tampa radar has had the center moving eastward for 3 hours now. That has to impact the models coming up tonight, the track and so forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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