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2024 Tropical Tracking Thread


WxWatcher007
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4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS thru Day 6

IMG_3718.png

IMG_3719.pngSeems like the faster solutions have a trough taking it out to sea.  If it misses the first trough then things could get interesting further North later next week.

12 Euro is quite a  bit different

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10 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

12 Euro is quite a  bit different

Trough misses it.  Interesting solution in that the front that comes down with the trough to us on Wednesday just kind of hangs out, with an onshore flow for the rest of the week.  Certainly would help with temps.

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6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Trough misses it.  Interesting solution in that the front that comes down with the trough to us on Wednesday just kind of hangs out, with an onshore flow for the rest of the week.  Certainly would help with temps.

clouds rain and an east wind  is far better than 98 and sun. Future Debby is a threat here  in SE VA

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We're in Hilton Head through Tuesday. Prefer to get this this thing here and out in time for the flight home, but kind of looking forward to possibly

Good thing is that, besides planning to go to Bethany Beach with friends on Thursday-Sunday, there's nothing forcing us to head home that day since I've got PTO planned for the week anyways. Could just reschedule our flight, if needed.

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A lot of changes with the GFS today. Note the trough/ridge in the last three runs. Definitely worth watching with a sharper eye up the coast. Even an inland system in the SE could be very impactful further north. 
 

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2 hours ago, frd said:

More tracks closer to the coast or inland, rain impact from this system is increasing for the upcoming week. 

 

04L_gefs_latest.png.f331a70bd24e520fa1521e0899a9475b.thumb.png.d6b14e80f419f422785ec0980782ae34.png 

There is prolific rain potential with this one for a lot of areas.

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7 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:


Which model tends to handle tropical systems better: gfs or euro?

I always go Euro in tropical, but by the time it's up in these parts it's interacting with mid latitude weather systems. Would tend to take the under up in these parts, especially from I-95 and points west. We rarely get decent tropical here.

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11 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:


Which model tends to handle tropical systems better: gfs or euro?


.

It can vary by storm and context. For intensity, now that we have a well defined center, the hurricane models like the HAFS-A&B, HWRF, HMON tend to be best especially at shorter to medium range.

For track, it’s the global models, and most often the Euro and GFS. The Euro has struggled so far with this one imo, but it’s still worth looking at and taking seriously. 

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