2024 Tropical Tracking Thread

[WxWatcher007]

  On 7/7/2024 at 10:09 PM, nw baltimore wx said:

Consider the source, but looks to me like convection is firing up around the center. Signs of re-strengthening?

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Based on the recon data, I think it’s finally starting to intensify. May be close to hurricane strength based on latest dropsonde and recon data.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Rocking 

[WxWatcher007]

I’m ok. In the eye.

[WxWatcher007]

Minimum pressure of 979.8 & 980.3 on my devices. 

[Terpeast]

  On 7/8/2024 at 11:19 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Minimum pressure of 979.8 & 980.3 on my devices. 

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Where are you hunkering down, specifically? I know you flew into Houston, but the eye is well west of the city

Stay safe! Watch for broken glass and downed power lines. I lived through Ike in 2008, and it was… intense. 

[MN Transplant]

What an eyewall pass for Houston proper.

[MillvilleWx]

Hey guys. Just letting you know that @WxWatcher007is doing okay and is safe. No signal currently. Quite the hit down there this morning. 

[WxWatcher007]

Bay City direct eye intercept. Near nonexistent signal. Will post again when I can.  If I weren’t at my window recording the eyewall my window would’ve been gone. A secondary gust after the power went out required me to use both hands to keep the thing from blowing in. Never any risk of shattering. Some structural damage out here but manageable. 

 

 

https://i.imgur.com/ONBSonL.jpeg

[WxWatcher007]

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 7/8/2024 at 1:26 PM, Terpeast said:

Where are you hunkering down, specifically? I know you flew into Houston, but the eye is well west of the city

Stay safe! Watch for broken glass and downed power lines. I lived through Ike in 2008, and it was… intense. 

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Just getting to this—as you probably know now, Bay City. Ended up being a great call. Never needed to reposition. 

Thanks for the advice. More than you asked for, but I bring steel toe boots on every chase to avoid broken glass and debris, and I’m conservative about standing near anything that could be dangerous. I also do my best to have any other supplies I need come from outside the storm zone to reduce the strain on stores in the area. I try to be as responsible, respectful, and helpful as possible whenever I chase tropical. 

[Jebman]

  On 7/9/2024 at 2:28 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Just getting to this—as you probably know now, Bay City. Ended up being a great call. Never needed to reposition. 

Thanks for the advice. More than you asked for, but I bring steel toe boots on every chase to avoid broken glass and debris, and I’m conservative about standing near anything that could be dangerous. I also do my best to have any other supplies I need come from outside the storm zone to reduce the strain on stores in the area. I try to be as responsible, respectful, and helpful as possible whenever I chase tropical. 

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Thanks for the coverage! I loved lookin at all those big waves in the Gulf!

[WxWatcher007]

The disturbance off the SE coast may not develop, but the Atlantic ridge could help pump rainfall into the region and up the coast. If there’s a real EC threat, I think a retrograding or rebuilding ridge is the mechanism in August.

[frd]

  On 7/10/2024 at 4:33 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

The disturbance off the SE coast may not develop, but the Atlantic ridge could help pump rainfall into the region and up the coast. If there’s a real EC threat, I think a retrograding or rebuilding ridge is the mechanism in August.

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MJO will flip the switch for August. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I would think if we develop any kind of drought it will increase our risk for tropical cyclones. For the last 10-20 years, just about everytime we have started to go drier, it has rained much greater than the leading dry period. I've seen it happen 25/25 times lately. We haven't had a true drought since 2002, and hurricane hits on the SE coast have been way below average during that time.. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS, maybe the tropics start to wake up next weekend.

[Kevin Reilly]

  On 7/25/2024 at 6:59 PM, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS, maybe the tropics start to wake up next weekend.

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THATS where the Euro had development 0z run Wednesday however did lose it last nights run.  

[WxUSAF]

Euro remains interested in a tropical system getting into the Gulf in a week+.  But seems GFS and GGEM are starting to notice as well now, even if not as robust as the Euro.

[JenkinsJinkies]

  On 7/26/2024 at 2:48 PM, WxUSAF said:

Euro remains interested in a tropical system getting into the Gulf in a week+.  But seems GFS and GGEM are starting to notice as well now, even if not as robust as the Euro.

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Hurricane center is picking up on it too

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS for week from Tuesday.  Since I am on the MD shore through the 9th, I will be watching with heightened interest....

[WxWatcher007]

Starting to watch now. 

[WxUSAF]

Gfs brings remnants through part of the area D12. GGEM has a cane hitting the Gulf coast D10.

[yoda]

12z Euro has a likely hurricane recurving out to sea at 240... but it's near NC/SC

[Weather Will]

WB OZ ensembles.  

[GaWx]

 Just after the least active GEFS run in awhile (the 0Z with only 1 member (3%) having a TC) and despite the 6Z GFS being still another run without a TC from the central MDR wave, the 6Z GEFS with 5 TCs from 31 members (16%) is the most active GEFS to this point. All 5 members landfall in the CONUS (4 E coast, 1 FL Keys and panhandle) with 3 of these 5 landfalling twice. And this is with a still very active EPAC.

[Weather Will]

12Z EPS tropical storm and depression probs.

[EastCoast NPZ]

  On 7/28/2024 at 8:04 PM, Weather Will said:

12Z EPS tropical storm and depression probs.

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Oh goodie, more rain for the tidewater.

[Weather Will]

OZ WB EPS tick east with track; 

[frd]

  On 7/29/2024 at 11:27 AM, Weather Will said:

OZ WB EPS tick east with track; 

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Unlikely to effect the area. I would watch for later August regarding a threat,  and then again in early October.