WxWatcher007 Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 Time limited image below but it’s clearly trying to reorganize as the eye is becoming more defined with a more symmetrical CDO. It has been extraordinarily resilient in the face of moderate shear present and dry air lurking. Perhaps some frictional convergence, missing the mountains of Jamaica, and over modeled shear helping right now. Even when the SFMR came down earlier, the winds above the deck were very strong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 WB 12Z on the 4th EPS compared to 6Z today. Definitely a trend north with TX landfall with Beryl looking more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 0z euro actually brought the remnants of Beryl pretty close to us as a defined low pressure area 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 0z euro actually brought the remnants of Beryl pretty close to us as a defined low pressure area There’s a met in the obs thread you should probably pay attention to. He has noticed that the euro keeps liking the next, um, wait… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 0z euro actually brought the remnants of Beryl pretty close to us as a defined low pressure area 12z euro says Beryl busts the drought next week. 3-6” of rain for the area. Don’t hold your breath. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Latest WB EURO EPS supports a hurricane hit looking more likely along the Texas coast by Monday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 WB EURO is significant/ major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 The storm is NE of guidance and models are trending north and east. This is one we gotta keep an eye on til it does LF. My wag is probably Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 55 minutes ago, Jebman said: The storm is NE of guidance and models are trending north and east. This is one we gotta keep an eye on til it does LF. My wag is probably Houston. JB scores the coup. We'll be hearing about it for the rest of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 WB 0Z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 0z euro and GGEM take what’s left of Beryl to our northwest next week, but pull in some moisture from it to give everyone rain and storms. GFS keeps the remnants south, but still maybe pulls in a little moisture. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Seems like this would be a rough day for Galveston Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 50 minutes ago, IronTy said: Seems like this would be a rough day for Galveston Bay. Sister lives in Houston. Sent her a text yesterday to warn her 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7 Author Share Posted July 7 This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from Bay City, TX. The trip here took longer than anticipated, as I ran into hellacious storms just as my plane landed in Houston. Traveling from Houston to my destination was delayed as a result. I had to pull off the highway as water started flooding the road. Once I got here however, there was the eerie quiet that’s become all too familiar in my travels. The hospitality staff are hunkering down and are here with their families. Children play in the lobby as a local news broadcast describing the severe potential runs in the background. At the local Walmart, the updated position and forecast for Beryl played over the sound system. Something I’ve never heard before. Folks here are paying attention, but not overly bothered. I am here for at least tonight—as I’m hedging east until I get a better sense of the final approach. As you all know—I have no interest in documenting storm surge. My priority is getting into the most intense part of the storm safely away from water, and with rapid intensification possible I definitely want to be on the eastern side. Other potential locations include Port Lavaca (but a little concerned about surge given my staging location), Corpus Christi, and Edna, a small community due north of Port Lavaca. As usual, I’m in touch with @MillvilleWx in case I can’t post during the worst. I’ll provide updates when I can. Definitely want a successful chase (on my birthday weekend!) but it’s the first of what I think will be a few chases this season. This is my first Texas hurricane chase. Wish us all luck down here. 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Fantastic! It's awesome you're getting out there and living life. Definitely keep us updated! Thanks for the vibe report. You described it well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7 Author Share Posted July 7 First video 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: First video Stay safe on your chase! Will be watching! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 On 7/6/2024 at 6:35 AM, WxUSAF said: 0z euro and GGEM take what’s left of Beryl to our northwest next week, but pull in some moisture from it to give everyone rain and storms. GFS keeps the remnants south, but still maybe pulls in a little moisture. Looks like a potential disturbance in the flow around the western side of the broad W Atlantic High combined with a frontal boundary associated with the remnant low moving eastward(possibly slowing/stalling) could set up an extended heavy rain threat for late week. Long way off and we know how this has gone lately. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7 Author Share Posted July 7 Nothing Earth shattering, but watching Beryl’s first real band roll in. Hot and humid morning lol. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7 Author Share Posted July 7 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Looks like a potential disturbance in the flow around the western side of the broad W Atlantic High combined with a frontal boundary associated with the remnant low moving eastward(possibly slowing/stalling) could set up an extended heavy rain threat for late week. Long way off and we know how this has gone lately. A direct hit from Beryl remnants would be a lot simpler. Much higher fail potential with the setup your post shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Just now, WxUSAF said: A direct hit from Beryl remnants would be a lot simpler. Much higher fail potential with the setup your post shows. A bit more convoluted but the other globals have the same general idea. With that broad HP there and a front in the vicinity, there should be an area of LL convergence with an impressive moisture feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: A bit more convoluted but the other globals have the same general idea. With that broad HP there and a front in the vicinity, there should be an area of LL convergence with an impressive moisture feed. Yeah, I don't doubt that the setup is real, just that it seems to be a fairly narrow corridor of heavy rain and as 12z euro shows today, there could be a fairly tight gradient between quasi-drought buster and light showers. P.S. Icon is the most friendly-to-everyone solution with the entire subform getting in on a healthy rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, I don't doubt that the setup is real, just that it seems to be a fairly narrow corridor of heavy rain and as 12z euro shows today, there could be a fairly tight gradient between quasi-drought buster and light showers. P.S. Icon is the most friendly-to-everyone solution with the entire subform getting in on a healthy rain. There seems to be a slot of subsidence on the eastern flank of Beryl's remnants. The ICON and GFS keep this sinking air back over Charleston, W.Va. giving Virginia a beneficial rain from a slug of Atlantic moisture. I'm really concerned about the 12z EURO desire to put western Va. in this dry slot. I'm anxiously awaiting the 12z AIFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 17 minutes ago, stormy said: There seems to be a slot of subsidence on the eastern flank of Beryl's remnants. The ICON and GFS keep this sinking air back over Charleston, W.Va. giving Virginia a beneficial rain from a slug of Atlantic moisture. I'm really concerned about the 12z EURO desire to put western Va. in this dry slot. I'm anxiously awaiting the 12z AIFS. Exactly what I am afraid of happening, coastal and piedmont and west of the Apps rain . With sinking air east of the remnants of Beryl centered over the Valley... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 1 hour ago, Jrlg1181 said: Exactly what I am afraid of happening, coastal and piedmont and west of the Apps rain . With sinking air east of the remnants of Beryl centered over the Valley... The 12z AIFS is better than the deterministic Euro, giving our area an inch of rain by late Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7 Author Share Posted July 7 Just took this about ten minutes ago. Came together and fell apart fast. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7 Author Share Posted July 7 Cropped YouTube video 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Consider the source, but looks to me like convection is firing up around the center. Signs of re-strengthening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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