WxWatcher007 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 It’s that time of the year again. Preseason is fast approaching, and with historic warmth and depth across the basin and a coming La Niña, the stage is being set for a very active year. My current thought is that the coming season is at a minimum a top 10 season. My deeper analysis doesn’t usually begin until later but today CSU issued their first forecast. April forecasts tend to be the least “accurate” but there is some skill. They explicitly forecast a hyperactive season. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 @Bob Chill cat 5 up the Bay year finally??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 4 Author Share Posted April 4 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: @Bob Chill cat 5 up the Bay year finally??? Been a while since a solid East Coast threat. Isaias? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 La Nina + record Atlantic warmth = most named storms and highest ACE on record. Bonus: cat 5 up the Bay in Sept. Bookmark this post. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Blowing hard right up your fannies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 19 Author Share Posted April 19 Just a couple basic OHC comps. Remember, this is mid-April. This is exceptional warmth. OHC—look at the depth and expanse of the warmth in the Caribbean and east of the Antilles. 2020 2024 26° C Depth 2020 2024 Current SSTs Of course, we know that temps aren’t the only driving factor for activity. One of the key inhibitors of active seasons especially recently has been instability, or lack thereof. This is something to watch closely as we get into the early season period. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 The surface ocean temperatures are high. This is a developing La Nina. La Nina is highly conducive to severe hurricane development in the Atlantic. This would be an excellent time to move from anywhere along the east coast and gulf coast. This hurricane season will be utterly unprecedented. We're going to see some horrifying hurricanes. I am so happy I live 350 miles inland. I do not have to worry. I am all cozy and safe from bad hurricanes, and it is too dry here anyway. Everyone needs to move far inland. The sea surface temps will stay elevated, and they will get much hotter with time. Storms will be unprecedented, not just hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 On 4/4/2024 at 11:32 AM, WxUSAF said: @Bob Chill cat 5 up the Bay year finally??? Be very very careful what you wish for. This tropical season may go full-on George BM. But hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 On 4/4/2024 at 10:40 AM, WxWatcher007 said: It’s that time of the year again. Preseason is fast approaching, and with historic warmth and depth across the basin and a coming La Niña, the stage is being set for a very active year. My current thought is that the coming season is at a minimum a top 10 season. My deeper analysis doesn’t usually begin until later but today CSU issued their first forecast. April forecasts tend to be the least “accurate” but there is some skill. They explicitly forecast a hyperactive season. This is a very serious situation indeed. I am rewriting this story because I have had a massive change of heart. A Cat 5 storm formed and moved toward Florida, dominating news stories for days before the storm ever struck the Sunshine State. Swells ahead of the storm prompted many adventurous surfers to defy warnings and enjoy the waves. Fortunately no one was hurt or killed. Hurricane Debi finally made her move on Florida. The A1A became a massive parking lot, as millions of people frantically tried to move upstate all at once! Every mode of transport became beset by innocent people trying to evac. As the storm lumbered slowly northwestward, the cirrus gave way to heavier lower clouds, clouds that grew alarmingly black, then rainfall developed that soon intensified into torrential rains that were being driven by winds that rapidly strengthened to banshee, utterly insane gusts. The storm continued intensifying right into landfall. Meteorologists marveled at how Debi kept right on intensifying even through eyewall replacement cycles. Wild gusts wrecked a lot of structures but many people did manage to evac. Things got so backed up on the interstates that many terrified people were running, walking, desperate to get as far north as possible, scenes somewhat reminiscent of people trying to escape from Saigon on April 29, 1975. And top-tier chasers like Josh Morgerman and Reed Timmer and many others, were getting the storm coverage of their lives! These are professionals who stayed safe throughout the event. They helped many people escape from the storm surges and admittedly insane wind gusts. They saved countless lives. The airports were a total nightmare. Thousands of desperate, scared to death people were trying to get a flight anywhere away from Miami! People were even storming the airline counters, even storming their way onto planes! A few planes somehow managed to take off in the wild hellish maelstrom, got blown about, end over end, people inside getting all blended up as the incredible hypercanic winds tossed big 787's around like so much chaff on the summer threshing floors. Local police were overwhelmed, it was just total bedlam, pandemonium. As a terrifying unprecedented hurricane with monster 230 mph winds, gusts to 270, unbelievable 30 to 38 foot storm surges and tsunami like waves on top of the surge, moved into South Florida causing severe damage leaving the entire region uninhabitable for weeks. This was a very damaging storm but it sped up as it moved into Florida. That probably helped many people to survive the storm. There was overwhelming evidence that God had a lot of mercy on the people of Florida. Many people that were fleeing the storm managed to find buildings to huddle in as the storm's worst quickly swept past. Floridians did all they could to help but the storm made this extremely difficult. Debi's surge and the battering waves on top of the surge were challenging to say the least. But the hurricane sped up as it moved into Florida, it got swept up into a front to the north. There were many miraculous stories about survival in the storm, many heroes who risked all, including their lives, to save strangers. Hurricane Debi continued thru Florida then got swept into a frontal system, it got rapidly degraded. It brought gusty winds and very heavy rainfall into Georgia and the Carolinas then much of Virginia, some places in the Mid Atlantic picked up 15 inches of rain from Debi's remnants then she moved out to sea thank goodness. There was a massive outpouring of support into Florida from all over the US and from all over the world. Florida made an incredibly rapid recovery from Debi's effects thanks to work crews arriving from all over. Supplies were also transported into the sunshine state, incredible amounts of water, food, rebuilding materials. Florida experienced an incredibly miraculous rebuilding, a redevelopment never before seen in the state. Tourism was completely restored in record time. The coastal areas were built up to absolutely unprecedented levels. Immense seawalls were built. Many seaside cities decided to raise up their lands like Galveston did in 1900. Plans were put in place for a gigantic Thames Barrier like protection system, and construction began immediately. ------------------------------------------ I have a copy of the original story, but about a week after I wrote up that version I was overtaken by a major change of heart. This is going to be a La Nina autumn. SSTs are elevated. But I am hoping and praying that the US Coasts will somehow luck out this tropical season and only get a few tropical storms with modest rains, gusty winds 25 to 45 mph and no tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 23 Author Share Posted April 23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 24 Author Share Posted April 24 Preseason is here! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 26 Author Share Posted April 26 Hard to say just how loaded the potential is this season. It’s not just the thermal environment, which is off the charts. It’s the rapidly developing Nina and orientation of the SSTAs. Hard to see significant limiting factors at this time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Imagine having code purple air quality alerts from the Canadian wildfire redux while looking at the forecast cone for category 5 Hurricane William coming up the Bay. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 We’re moving through May now, and the Euro forecast is about as aggressive as you can get for the season. I expect us to be looking meaningfully at pre/early season TC genesis opportunities in a few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: We’re moving through May now, and the Euro forecast is about as aggressive as you can get for the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 2 hours ago, frd said: It’s big time. Everything does seem lined up for a big season. The only caveat I’ll add is that we probably need to see decent early season activity in NS and maybe H to be in line for a highest end season. This is probably a long season through October/early November though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 Really important data point as we enter model analysis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 I’m curious to see what happens around the 23rd-28th in the Caribbean… the GFS has been hinting at some low pressure it seems. Still a ways to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Really important data point as we enter model analysis That's truly perplexing. Maybe there's a sweet spot for number and spacing of sondes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 11 Author Share Posted May 11 On 5/10/2024 at 12:17 AM, Eskimo Joe said: That's truly perplexing. Maybe there's a sweet spot for number and spacing of sondes? It seems like it was more the data assimilation from the GFS than anything. It’s supposedly better, but still problematic at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 7 hours ago, Terpeast said: Recurves for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 2020 2024 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 23 Author Share Posted May 23 No surprise 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 23 Author Share Posted May 23 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yup. May 23rd… Extreme warmth both in extent and depth across the basin, classic AMO, patterns reinforcing weaker trades, and a coming Nina to abate shear. It’s definitely time to think big about 2024. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Going to be very active and deep into November as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Has anyone seen any recent research or discussion related to the AMOC slowing down and it potentially being part of what we're seeing happen in the tropics? An interesting concurrent piece of data is the arctic is so far having its best year in terms of ice cover since ~2013 despite the record global temps last year. April specifically ended up only 16th lowest overall and the highest for the month since 2012. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 Here’s the first wave of the season. GFS plays with it in the long range. It’s quite sharp which is unusual but obviously unlikely to develop. Watch the MJO mid-June though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 30 Author Share Posted May 30 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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