4/3/74 Severe threat - Forecast discussion based on wrf simulation

[largetornado]

Found this on Twitter. WRF simulation of 4/3/74. thought it would be interesting to post this and see how a thread would go based on this model output.  https://www.goldenhorseshoewx.ca/case_studies/SuperOutbreak1974/

another model https://x.com/jacob_feuer/status/1775667383816143284?s=46

[CheeselandSkies]

I mean, it only goes 24 hours out so you wouldn't have the 10 days of hype.

I will say, the simulated reflectivity for the late evening Alabama supercells (that produced Guin, Tanner 1+2, Jasper and Redstone Arsenal) looks somewhat less impressive than I would have expected. Around 02Z-03Z when those storms would have been peaking, it just looks like strung out line segments in the northwest corner of the state, not monster supercells producing some of the most violent tornadoes of what stood as the most prolific tornado outbreak on record for 37 years.

[largetornado]

On 4/4/2024 at 8:46 PM, CheeselandSkies said:

I mean, it only goes 24 hours out so you wouldn't have the 10 days of hype.

I will say, the simulated reflectivity for the late evening Alabama supercells (that produced Guin, Tanner 1+2, Jasper and Redstone Arsenal) looks somewhat less impressive than I would have expected. Around 02Z-03Z when those storms would have been peaking, it just looks like strung out line segments in the northwest corner of the state, not monster supercells producing some of the most violent tornadoes of what stood as the most prolific tornado outbreak on record for 37 years.

Interestingly, the SPC had a SCTD risk for d1 convective outlook which translates to moderate todays

[largetornado]

[buckeye]

I know it's not in our sub but I don't ever recall seeing a day 6 30% threat....chasers must be drooling