Geoboy645 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 I figured this needed it's own thread at this point. So the models over the last 24 hours have really come into agreement that tomorrow into Wednesday across Wisconsin and the UP. Some models like the 18z have over 20 inches (!) of snow on the Ledge by this time Wednesday afternoon, and it's still snowing. Which is absolutely insane. There's also the potential for up to 50mph gusts during this event as well. And with the lake being completely open and warm for this time of year, there is a decent chance of lake enhancement off of Green Bay. If that happens, then the sky is the limit for potential in the Fox Valley with this storm in my opinion. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 The 18z runs all seem to be holding their ground. Really sucks for me in Alpena as that bullseye was over my area in MI for 5 days on global models,then they shifted west last night big time. Mesoscale models continue east tho. Dare I hug the NAM ect??? Lol The rug might have been pulled one last time on me this snow season. Should be an interesting storm to nowcast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Have a shot at getting the most snowfall since mid January. All it has to do is make it to 0.4" to beat the 0.3" we received Feb 16th. The timing of the most intense snowfall may time up right for accumulation potential down this way, as the heaviest rates look to arrive before sunrise Wed morning. Up to a slushy inch looks possible on grassy/elevated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 A good chunk of models have 2-3 feet of snow by Thursday noon. RAP pretty aggressive with 3 feet at the end of its run and still snowing. Seem to get these high qpf/wet snows every April. Last year nearly 3 feet fell May 2nd and 3rd. If all goes according, this will push me over the 150 inch mark. Still around 100 inches below average however. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 36 minutes ago, weatherbo said: A good chunk of models have 2-3 feet of snow by Thursday noon. RAP pretty aggressive with 3 feet at the end of its run and still snowing. Seem to get these high qpf/wet snows every April. Last year nearly 3 feet fell May 2nd and 3rd. If all goes according, this will push me over the 150 inch mark. Still around 100 inches below average however. Seems like these late seasons snows always produce some very heavy wet snows in feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 31 minutes ago, weatherbo said: A good chunk of models have 2-3 feet of snow by Thursday noon. RAP pretty aggressive with 3 feet at the end of its run and still snowing. Seem to get these high qpf/wet snows every April. Last year nearly 3 feet fell May 2nd and 3rd. If all goes according, this will push me over the 150 inch mark. Still around 100 inches below average however. I like to see this as it will help get the UP and northern WI with the Drought situation. It does seem like the some of the biggest storms lately have been Spring. 2 of the 5 years I live in the UP they had major Snowstorms April and May. Biggest was May 10, 1990 which closed NMU summer classes for the first time ever for snow. Driving home from MTU a couple weeks late we could still see snow piles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Have a shot at getting the most snowfall since mid January. All it has to do is make it to 0.4" to beat the 0.3" we received Feb 16th. The timing of the most intense snowfall may time up right for accumulation potential down this way, as the heaviest rates look to arrive before sunrise Wed morning. Up to a slushy inch looks possible on grassy/elevated areas. Might as well. Let's do this and then move on to spring!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 3 hours ago, Imneversatisfied said: The 18z runs all seem to be holding their ground. Really sucks for me in Alpena as that bullseye was over my area in MI for 5 days on global models,then they shifted west last night big time. Mesoscale models continue east tho. Dare I hug the NAM ect??? Lol The rug might have been pulled one last time on me this snow season. Should be an interesting storm to nowcast! Definitely frustrating to see the models so off on placement for so many days, but the sting is definitely less in spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 59 minutes ago, Lightning said: I like to see this as it will help get the UP and northern WI with the Drought situation. It does seem like the some of the biggest storms lately have been Spring. 2 of the 5 years I live in the UP they had major Snowstorms April and May. Biggest was May 10, 1990 which closed NMU summer classes for the first time ever for snow. Driving home from MTU a couple weeks late we could still see snow piles. Every time there's a big late season snow, the "Mother's Day" storm of 1990 always comes up. I believe Negaunee received 24 inches and apparently was all melted by late afternoon the following day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 hours ago, weatherbo said: Every time there's a big late season snow, the "Mother's Day" storm of 1990 always comes up. I believe Negaunee received 24 inches and apparently was all melted by late afternoon the following day. It definitely melted quickly but not that quickly. I recall the highest unofficial reports being 27" The storm was all over the UP news reports. https://www.weather.gov/mqt/May1990Snowstorm30thAnniversary I remember it well. It was on a Thursday. Friday afternoon/evening we were on the Breakers Beach playing Frisbee and volleyball and a bonfire of course. It was in the 60s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 NAM and FV3 caved and are def juiced. 40 and 51 inches verbatim with 4 to 5 inches LE. If this even comes close to verifying, with the expected wind, it will be a crippling storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 There is sort of an exotic phase with this one. Even a bit of fujiwara effect in the Great Lakes for a time between the northern and southern stream main vort lobes and then again out east later on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Everyone have fun that got surprised by the last minute west shift on this one,was really hoping for a big dog here in Alpena. Green Bay might steal it. Looking like 1-3" thru Thursday. Maybe the NAM will still reel this one in (shows 6")? Lol The heaviest precip comes thru in the middle of the night so that's a positive I guess. Still grasping at straws for colder than forecasted temps,dynamic cooling effect,an east,south shift, or some lake enhancement with the strong NE winds. I really wanna ride my sled one last time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Still rain here for now. Hoping it stays rain as long as possible to cut down on accumulation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 hour ago, madwx said: Still rain here for now. Hoping it stays rain as long as possible to cut down on accumulation At least there should be an explosion of green when the weekend/early next week warmup finally hits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 12z NAM has 44 inches here. Geni ready to go, tractor gassed up, firewood stocked, roast cooking. Still need to run to town for a few things as I imagine roads out this way will be impassible for a couple days with tree damage. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 7 minutes ago, weatherbo said: 12z NAM has 44 inches here. Geni ready to go, tractor gassed up, firewood stocked, roast cooking. Still need to run to town for a few things as I imagine roads out this way will be impassible for a couple days with tree damage. Enjoy! Looking like a lil fun here in Alpena around midnight per mesoscale models. Fingers crossed for snow! Models are also showing a possible nice wrap around snow band Wed night here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 GFS Kuchera snow totals. 17.2". GFS positive snow depth change. 5.5". I'll let you guess which one is going to be closer to correct 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 16 hours ago, Lightning said: I like to see this as it will help get the UP and northern WI with the Drought situation. It does seem like the some of the biggest storms lately have been Spring. 2 of the 5 years I live in the UP they had major Snowstorms April and May. Biggest was May 10, 1990 which closed NMU summer classes for the first time ever for snow. Driving home from MTU a couple weeks late we could still see snow piles. Yeah these places need precip so even though it will be coming as heavy snow it is very welcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 hour ago, weatherbo said: 12z NAM has 44 inches here. Geni ready to go, tractor gassed up, firewood stocked, roast cooking. Still need to run to town for a few things as I imagine roads out this way will be impassible for a couple days with tree damage. Get pictures of this if it comes close to verifying. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Forecast for Ishpeming and Negaunee is wild af Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 2am. Low around 29. Blustery, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 9 inches possible. Wednesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 32. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 17 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 10pm. Low around 30. Blustery, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 8 inches possible. Thursday Snow showers likely, mainly before 8am. Patchy blowing snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Cedar Rapids just switched to snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Marquette and Baraga counties upgraded to a blizzard warning before it's even started. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Sounds like an interesting next 24+ hours in the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Cold,rainy,windy night for me. Could have have been a hell of snow storm... This one's going to leave me burned for awhile... Tonight Rain. Patchy fog between 11pm and 2am. Low around 36. Windy, with an east wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 56 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Marquette and Baraga counties upgraded to a blizzard warning before it's even started. What's your seasonal total this year and your annual average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 accumulating here on all surfaces 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 35 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: What's your seasonal total this year and your annual average? I've had around 125 inches. My area averages around 250+ inches maxing out just northwest of here around Eagle Mine near 300 inches. Winds on the increase but that's about it right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 At 1.8 inches of rain by 2 PM. First time I’ve seen standing water in the fields in a long time. Switched to snow w/ slushy accums. My eyeballs can’t see us getting 4-7” b/c it’s so warm but it is coming down pretty heavily so maybe after sunset things will pick up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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