George BM Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Forecast Discussion Sunday, April 28, 2024 3:13PM EDT Much of the forecast area remains in a moderate (level 4 of 5) risk of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center. The west to east frontal boundary remains draped over the region w/ the shortwave and associated area of low-pressure approaching from the west. Temperatures have risen into the mid-80s in most areas w/ unseasonably high low-level moisture (dewpoints into the lower 70sF). This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8C/km) has led to mlcape values exceeding 3,000 J/kg. There’s also a strong westerly flow aloft (700-400mb westerly winds of 60-70kts) contributing to the 65-80 kt effective bulk shear in place when combined with the easterly surface wind component. The unusually strong instability in place will allow storms to be able to take full advantage of this shear without getting ripped apart. Storms are expected to form within the next hour in the mountains west of 1-81 and move eastwards into the region as we go through the afternoon and evening. A few storms may also develop in the region in the general vicinity of the frontal boundary east of the mountains. With the shear in place supercells will be the primary storm-mode. Low-level shear will be high with effective SRH of 200-350m2/s2 commonplace. As a result, supercells could drop a couple of tornadoes, a tornado or two may become significant/long-track especially if it tracks right along the boundary. The strong instability in place combined with at least moderately strong downdraft CAPE (DCAPE: 900-1200J/kg) will also allow for severe downburst wind gusts. A few gusts may approach hurricane-force. With “fat-CAPE” particularly between the -10C and -30C level of the atmosphere, very large to giant hail may be common with these storms leading to extensive roof damage. Over time supercells may congeal into multicellular storm clusters, especially with additional storms that move in from the west allowing for areas to receive multiple rounds of severe storms through the evening. These storms will contain all hazards (tornadoes, severe wind, severe hail). This looks likely to be one of if not this region’s biggest severe weather event in more than a decade. Make sure you have a way to keep updated and get alerted with the severe weather going on, especially considering that storms will likely continue until after most peoples bedtime. Tornado Watch in effect until midnight EDT Monday, April 29, 2024 Hazards: A few tornadoes likely w/ a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail events w/ isolated very large hail events up to 3.5” diameter likely Widespread damaging winds w/ isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Watch Probs: Tor: 70/50 Wind: 80/50 Hail: 80/80 Average storm motion: 270/40 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 April fools on that storm setup. Don't make me write one up on a day after tomorrow snow that kills everyone in the US. I do, after all, value snow over people. That's no lie. That ain't no April fools, either. I am definitely far crazier, than I ever was in high school over snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 I am not looking forward to the Craig Kimbrel experience all season long. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 So the older Ms. J is in a scriptwriting class this semester. The next assignment is to write 3 pitches for PSA's. She was going to do Spay and Neuter your pets, but changed to Weather PSA's. We got into the discussion about how the NWS has changed up their wording recently so that the public takes it seriously. Will be interesting to see what she comes up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 39 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: So the older Ms. J is in a scriptwriting class this semester. The next assignment is to write 3 pitches for PSA's. She was going to do Spay and Neuter your pets, but changed to Weather PSA's. We got into the discussion about how the NWS has changed up their wording recently so that the public takes it seriously. Will be interesting to see what she comes up with. I hope you showed her some of @Jebman 's posts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 3 hours ago, RickinBaltimore said: I am not looking forward to the Craig Kimbrel experience all season long. I dont think he will be long if he doesn't do better. We have plenty of arms to close with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 On 4/1/2024 at 4:50 PM, Jebman said: April fools on that storm setup. Don't make me write one up on a day after tomorrow snow that kills everyone in the US. I do, after all, value snow over people. That's no lie. That ain't no April fools, either. I am definitely far crazier, than I ever was in high school over snow. If it makes you feel better there've been many significant to record-breaking snows with the general pattern leading up to this eastern severe event in the western US mountains w/ Lake Tahoe and the California mountain peaks getting 10-15 feet of snow through the past week. Crazy for late April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 hour ago, George BM said: If it makes you feel better there've been many significant to record-breaking snows with the general pattern leading up to this eastern severe event in the western US mountains w/ Lake Tahoe and the California mountain peaks getting 10-15 feet of snow through the past week. Crazy for late April. I feel a lot better. California should have plenty of water this spring, if not summer. The problem is, we need to release all that water in order to save the Delta Smelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 10 hours ago, RickinBaltimore said: I am not looking forward to the Craig Kimbrel experience all season long. Why are the Orioles so concerned about Kimbrel as closer? I dont know a whole lot about baseball, though. I looked him up. Seems the Orioles should have gotten someone else on as closer. Maybe Kimbrel's salary? Are the orioles saving money by signing Kimbrel on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 I have had fun working the parking crew at Mt Bachelor. Work tomorrow and a new snow cycle rolling in. Less than two months in the season here. Anyone want a 100% job in the snow let me know and I'll get get you in… cute video of my manager boss lady.. https://youtube.com/watch?v=v4mxXdFY-kk&si=aDqNgKi9eZ36SaOP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 hour ago, snownut said: I have had fun working the parking crew at Mt Bachelor. Work tomorrow and a new snow cycle rolling in. Less than two months in the season here. Anyone want a 100% job in the snow let me know and I'll get get you in… cute video of my manager boss lady.. https://youtube.com/watch?v=v4mxXdFY-kk&si=aDqNgKi9eZ36SaOP You have a job in heaven. I love that video with all my heart! I would be digging snow for years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 I think it is high time for a snow yarn. This one will be in segments because I am extremely busy where I live now. We are in the Spring cycle in Texas and have 234 decillion, 489 quadrillion tasks to do here. This is not like my life used to be back in N VA 6 years ago. I don't know jack shit about meteorology. I do know I am morbid about terminal snows and severe storms that have no mercy at all, with absolutely no regard at all for consequences to populations. I am evil and uncaring enough to happily write this and sleep like a baby at night with not a care in this world. **************************** January 15, 2025 was a very cold day in the DMV. Everyone knew it was going to snow. The forecasters were calling for 2 to 4 inches. A storm had formed in the GoM, was a southern slider and would bring the snow then move out to sea. Highs even in DC were only in the 0 to 8 degree range. Cross polar flow was established. A refreshing 23 mph northerly breeze was blowing. Clouds were moving in from the southwest and thickening. Dewpoints were around ~ 10 below zero. Jeb was happily jebwalking along in Dale City, with a grin on his face. This was because he knew a lot of snow was coming to the DC Region. In fact it would be way too much of a good thing. Jebs grin broadened at that thought. He worshiped snow, and lots of it! He kicked back on a park bench and happily drew a polar front cross section on a notebook, just like he used to do in high school in lieu of actually doing assigned work. Then he savored the AmWx forums on his tablet. SNE was grumping about the ma getting the snow while they whiffed cirrus. The Mid Atlantic sub was tracking the models to death. The NAM was indicating 3 feet of snow but was an outlier. The model consensus was 3 to 6 inches. Many posters were calling for WSW's. PSU was having to field a ton of questions about the new base state. Jeb daydreamed about trying to shovel out the entire Potomac Mills parking lot using a Jebman Shovel, and piling the snow super high! Altostratus was moving in from the ESE. Was that a flurry? Naah the dews were way too low, about -13. The breeze was refreshing though. Jeb read the NWS LWX AFD for the 79th time. Forecasters insisted the southern slider would move out to sea. This would hold accums to 2 to 4 inches. Many in the Mid Atlantic sub were hopeful the storm would overachieve and dump warning level amounts of snow. Bob Chill said the slider had upside, especially because the ratios were favorable. Jed happily walked the Potomac Mills lot, admiring the milquetoast small piles of snow here and there. The skies grew darker and more foreboding and the cool north wind gusted suddenly to 37 mph out of the NE! A flurry of snow began, leaving Jeb wondering how precip could be already reaching the ground with low negative teen dewpoints! The wind blew the snow right along the lot pavement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Jan 15 2025 was a Wednesday. That day the southern slider continued its slow march NE'ward. NNE winds averaged about 12-20 mph with occasional gusts around 34mph. The snow fell as flurries, although the skies became very very dark. Forecasters predicted a slow movement of the slider, which would feature very light but steady snows. The ratios were good because of the frigid air as well as profound surface frigidization. What that meant, was that all the snow would stick, from flake 1, and that roads, sidewalks, driveways, would INSTANTLY cave! The official forecast was for light snow to continue into the evening. N to NE winds were expected to blow 12-20 mph with some gusts to 34. Dews would gradually come up, but air temps would remain in the mid to upper single digits with wind chills generally minus 15 to minus 20. Aviation was already becoming challenging because of low scudding cloud decks and snow. That damn wind was blowing the snow all over the runways in spite of attempts to clear it. The storm was expected to generally move slowly NE and off the North Carolina coast with time, ending the snow from SW to NE on Thursday. Accumulations were expected to range from 2 to 4 inches in much of Virginia, Maryland with lesser amounts in West Virginia. The Appalachians would see more snow due to upsloping on the east side of the hills. Posters on AmWx were clamoring for Winter Storm Warnings, especially within the Mid Atlantic sub. Everyone else northeast along the coast was upset as fook about the storm and whiffing cirrus while the MA got in on a climo magnitude snow. PSU had three inches in his back yard already, even as most locations had only barely a quarter inch. Forecasters weren't clear on why. Many were very happy to see snow, but chafed at the light rates! Where on earth were the heavier snow bands? The NAM was a crazy outlier with over three feet of snow. Many were hugging it. The rest of the models showed a 3-6 inch consensus. This was why there was so much clamor for Winter Storm Warnings. So many snow weenies cried to get NAM'med lmao! Jeb was out on another jebwalk. He loved to jebwalk the so-called Outer Rim, the outer part of the 1.75 mile Potomac Mills parking lot. The flurries were blowing around all over the lot! It was really fascinating watching the flurries get blown all along the roads by the 20 mph NNE winds! At times, the snow became light, not just flurries. Where was the heavier snow? It was fun to watch the wind blow the flurries sideways! The snow was dry and blew around so easily! It was drifted by curbs and various obstructions. Jeb eagerly walked on all the drifts! A brief moderate snow band blew like crazy in the wind! Everything was instantly white! Jeb looked at the radar on his tablet, but all it showed was light green returns. No yellow or red, just a big huge light green blob! There was a thin line of darker green that was dumping some moderate snow for a brief time then it went back to flurries/light snow that just blew and blew in the NNE winds! Wind gusted to about 35, Jeb yelled WOOOOOOOO----HOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!! with sheer delight because of the brief whiteout-like conditions! This was starting to get very enjoyable! Jeb ducked into the mall because it was starting to get slightly cold. That wind was getting in his jacket and thru his gloves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 6 games and this Os season has been wild already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 8 hours ago, snowfan said: 6 games and this Os season has been wild already. Norfolk has been more wild. 26-11 last night. Look at the box score. The Orioles are going to have to make some decisions soon. https://www.milb.com/gameday/tides-vs-knights/2024/04/03/753540/final/box 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 6 hours ago, Interstate said: Norfolk has been more wild. 26-11 last night. Look at the box score. The Orioles are going to have to make some decisions soon. https://www.milb.com/gameday/tides-vs-knights/2024/04/03/753540/final/box That was playing MLB The Show on Rookie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 10 hours ago, Interstate said: Norfolk has been more wild. 26-11 last night. Look at the box score. The Orioles are going to have to make some decisions soon. https://www.milb.com/gameday/tides-vs-knights/2024/04/03/753540/final/box More like a football score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Important signing imo, especially after losing Clowney. Maybe Oweh and/or Ojabo develop into a legit pass rusher, but can't count on it at this point, and Van Noy is also a great teammate and mentor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Mammoth is getting obliterated by HUGE HUGE aggregates right now! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam One thing is as sure as death and taxes. It's going to be Socked In in Austin Monday. Multiple cloud decks associated with efficient moisture transport. No eclipse for me and that's too bad. But the Sierra, NEVER LETS ME DOWN. Mammoth is getting destroyed by gargantuan aggregates right now and the wind is blowing the snow all over the place, filling my dark heart with sublime joy!!!!! The forecast was for two inches of snow. Guess what? Mammoth is getting 13 inches of freshies today! Maybe even more free refills tonight! Those winds are gusting to 65mph but the aggregates are STILL 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER!!!!!! IT doesn't get better than this!!!!!! Temperature is down to a refreshing 16 degrees and the visibility is shot straight to heck! I wub this type of weather! This is how skiers get disorientated and stumble around, finally ending up like Luke Skywalker on Hoth falling over in a nice deep refreshing snowdrift, mumbling dagobah! The Sierras know how to party when it comes to major winter snows, making the Northeast snows look like flurries in a passing arctic front in Florida in January! It just fell to 14 degrees! The Sierra don't know how to fail! Mammoth has now cooled down to a refreshing 13 degrees! Now it is 12 degrees. I see why al the skiers went in the damn lodge. It is getting pretty chilly outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Big game tonight... let's go Penguins! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Caps crapping the bed down the stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Just got back from a trip to arctic Norway. Absolute weenie paradise! 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: Just got back from a trip to arctic Norway. Absolute weenie paradise! CONGRATS, excellent weenie pic but you need to check out the Mammoth!! It is just pouring and pouring heavy heavy heavy snow! THE LIGHTS ARE ON at the Main Lodge!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That place is absolutely getting demolished!!! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge The way that super torrential snow is coming down, it is easily the most beautiful thing I have ever seen! Tomorrow is gonnabe snorkel day! They are gonna have SO MUCH DEEP POW! This is officially a MC HAMMER Blizzard! Can't touch this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 It is hammering Mammoth so damn hard, that plow blade guy just started plowing by the Mammoth, and you can see they have already gotten obliterated by 12-16 inches of new blower pow!!!!!!!!!!! And, it is STILL POURING DOWN!!!!!!!! Radar shows a low just slamming wave, after wave, after massive wave of Pacific moisture against the Mammoth Cordillera! The waves keep on smashing HARD right into Mammoth, getting forced 11000 feet straight up into 10 degree air, and falling as absolutely TORRENTIAL snows!!!!!! If this keeps up like this, Mammoth may have ~20 inches by 9am Friday! Or even more!!!! TORRENTIAL snow has been obliterating Mammoth since early Thursday afternoon!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Just on a teams call with some of my development team in NYC area...It was wild seeing the effects of the earthquake as it hit. 4.7 is large for this part of the country and I'm Hoping that there isn't a lot of unseen damage since a lot of the buildings up there are a lot older and were built probably without considerations of earthquakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Wow NYC got a 4.7 mag quake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 This is a Special Jebman Bulletin. Heavy snow, outright torrential at times, has been obliterating Mammoth since early Thursday afternoon about 1pm local time. Mammoth got destroyed by 21 inches of fresh pow OVERNIGHT and possibly more yesterday afternoon as the maelstrom dragged on at inches per hour at times overnight!. The ambient temperature is 10 degrees. Pow is abundant today and you are advised to strap on a snorkel, avalung and avalanche beacon for safety as well as bring along a buddy. Snow Immersion accidents can and do occur in these conditions especially off-piste! WATCH OUT FOR TREE WELLS! People often end up upside down in a tree well and panic, bringing more snow down with them and they suffocate to death in the snow in as little as fifteen minutes! BRING A POWDER BUDDY, KEEP AN EYE ON EACH OTHER WHILE SKIING! Heavy snow is still pouring and a lot more is on the way. These are truly EPIC, but also extremely HAZARDOUS ski conditions, especially for novices. The chairs are actually SCRAPING THE SNOWPACK on the lower part of the Unbound lift! Be CAREFUL getting on! Heavy snow will continue throughout the day, piling up even more fresh pow! Stashes are gonnabe EPIC today! Pow is super abundant so get out there are enjoy the freshies! Very heavy snow is again obliterating Mammoth! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge This has been a special Jebman Bulletin. The Jeb Report is YOUR one-stop shop for all things snow, skiing, and Sierra! Enjoy the deep fresh pow and stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 I wonder if a +PNA would have prevented the earthquake. /s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I wonder if a +PNA would have prevented the earthquake. /s LOL ........ LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: I wonder if a +PNA would have prevented the earthquake. /s If it was an anomalous strong +PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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