4/1-4/2 severe threat (southern portion of subforum)

[Crowbar]

 

6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

yea, it was frustrating.   When we got that clearing around 11:30 I thought it's game on.   Then that garbage rolled in around 2  and I think that was the nail in the coffin.   

One cool thing, the sky has been a show this evening.   Strange cloud formations, colors, and the most amazing rainbow I've ever seen.   I'll upload a pic when I get a chance.

 

 

You'd think that could have been predicted - everyone was saying that the morning convection would suck out the energy, but NWS continued to say that the paramaters were in place for a major severe event.   Realize that some are getting severe weather, but up this way it was a lot worse last night and this monring.  Should have known it would be a bust up here when they let school out 90 minutes early. 

[Chinook]

Possible tornado Buckeye Lake- Gratiot Ohio

 

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Still don’t understand how there’s no tornado warning for this storm passing by Campbellsville, KY. 

[buckeye]

On 4/1/2024 at 7:35 PM, buckeye said:

So I'll have to see if my anecdotal theory holds.   I've always said the most hyped events around here tend to fall apart while the most significant events, (ie the one a couple weeks back) come out of nowhere.

Yep, it held 

[Crowbar]

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Yep, it held 

Yep - as I said above, when I got the call that school was letting out early, knew that it was game over.  Certainly don't fault the school district with all of the hype, as there was some chatter about a Xenia-like event. 

[Floydbuster]

14 minutes ago, Crowbar said:

 

You'd think that could have been predicted - everyone was saying that the morning convection would suck out the energy, but NWS continued to say that the paramaters were in place for a major severe event.   Realize that some are getting severe weather, but up this way it was a lot worse last night and this monring.  Should have known it would be a bust up here when they let school out 90 minutes early. 

Well other than the early Monday morning HRRR and NAM nightmares showing a possible big outbreak *perhaps* getting to Central Ohio, there was always the likelihood that it would be worse down near the Ohio River and Kentucky.

When the moderate risk was held over that area, there was a massive social media twitter meltdown among the amateur storm chaser nerds. They were attacking some forecaster named Broyles or something and going nuts. Then you had the long discussions and a tardy issuance of the moderate risk Mon afternoon smack dab over Central Ohio, way too far north without more model run indicators. By Monday evening, it was obvious that should be moved southwest, which it eventually was.

I know this seems unlikely, but is there a chance that the moderate risk was issued out of pressure from the social media freakout and the overperformance of the March Western Ohio tornado event?

[Crowbar]

3 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Well other than the early Monday morning HRRR and NAM nightmares showing a possible big outbreak *perhaps* getting to Central Ohio, there was always the likelihood that it would be worse down near the Ohio River and Kentucky.

When the moderate risk was held over that area, there was a massive social media twitter meltdown among the amateur storm chaser nerds. They were attacking some forecaster named Broyles or something and going nuts. Then you had the long discussions and a tardy issuance of the moderate risk Mon afternoon smack dab over Central Ohio, way too far north without more model run indicators. By Monday evening, it was obvious that should be moved southwest, which it eventually was.

I know this seems unlikely, but is there a chance that the moderate risk was issued out of pressure from the social media freakout and the overperformance of the March Western Ohio tornado event?

Certainly hope it was more due to the overperformance from a couple weeks ago, as it's a pretty sad state of affairs if they caved to pressure from social media.  I was wondering why we stayed in a moderate risk after all of the rain that we had overnight and this morning, then the one early this afternoon.  The TV mets who were on the radio were still saying that we were in a moderate risk this afternoon, but the sun wasn't out that long today for any destabilizing to occur.  Totally understand that it's not an exact science, but never saw where the necessary factors would be in play up here.  

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[Floydbuster]

1 minute ago, Crowbar said:

Certainly hope it was more due to the overperformance from a couple weeks ago, as it's a pretty sad state of affairs if they caved to pressure from social media.  I was wondering why we stayed in a moderate risk after all of the rain that we had overnight and this morning, then the one early this afternoon.  The TV mets who were on the radio were still saying that we were in a moderate risk this afternoon, but the sun wasn't out that long today for any destabilizing to occur.  Totally understand that it's not an exact science, but never saw where the necessary factors would be in play up here.  

It's hard to find objectivity on social media when a meteorologist says, "Looks like a slow recovery time, looking less intense" and someone responds "Sun is out now! LOOK OUT! Recovery incoming!" Or when they say "I think Zanesville, OH will be ground zero" and then look at their account and find out they live near Zanesville.

That's what is nice about living in Ohio and being a hurricane guy. I have no vested interest in hurricanes. When I live in Cleveland/Akron, what the hell do I care if a hurricane makes landfall in Tampico, MX vs Veracruz, MX? I am able to be objective. 

[buckeye]

8 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I know this seems unlikely, but is there a chance that the moderate risk was issued out of pressure from the social media freakout and the overperformance of the March Western Ohio tornado event?

 In June of 1990 a flash flood from a thunderstorm killed 26 people in shadyside ohio.  The nws was ravaged for not having any kind of watch up.   For what seemed like the rest of that summer…every time storms were in the forecast they issued flood watches.   It was definitely cya.  Maybe a little of that today as well?

[Floydbuster]

8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

 In June of 1990 a flash flood from a thunderstorm killed 26 people in shadyside ohio.  The nws was ravaged for not having any kind of watch up.   For what seemed like the rest of that summer…every time storms were in the forecast they issued flood watches.   It was definitely cya.  Maybe a little of that today as well?

I'm not trying to cast any aspersions. I felt kind of bad for the relentless ripping the NWS took on social media. 

This was always more of an event for Kentucky and only extreme SW Ohio. To be honest, West Virginia seems to have been hit harder than any other place, and there was little focus. Was it because all the "storm chasers" live in Central Ohio? They didn't want to "chase" into rougher Appalachian terrain?

Other than a few scary model runs on Mon morning, there shouldn't have been such cause for alarm in Central Ohio.

I'm not downplaying the damage that we've seen and the tornados that have occurred, but I'm being honest, the twitter feed acted like the tornadoes would be F4 stovepipes ripping through Central Ohio in a 1974-type outbreak. I think Monday April 1st was some of the most insane weather/storm chaser hype I've ever seen on social media. Maybe these kids were just so overeager to chase they inflated it in their own mind? 

 

[SnowGator]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

One cool thing, the sky has been a show this evening.   Strange cloud formations, colors, and the most amazing rainbow I've ever seen.   I'll upload a pic when I get a chance.

 

 

This one? (neighbor needs to paint his house)

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeah, even on another weather forum I suggested that some people throttle back the hype train a couple days ago, mainly due to the consistently progged steep positive tilt of the main trough and had them jump down my throat because "p0siTivELy tilteD TROughS can STIlL pr0duCe MajoR TOrNaDO events."

Well, yeah...BUT it is a lot less likely than with neutral to negatively tilted troughs. I can't confidently say that the mitigating factors we saw with today (and yesterday's) events were direct results of the positively tilted trough, but some (such as boundary-parallel flow promoting junk convection, and the best forcing and cold air aloft lagging behind the warm sector), seem to be common to them.

[Floydbuster]

6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah, even on another weather forum I suggested that some people throttle back the hype train a couple days ago, mainly due to the consistently progged steep positive tilt of the main trough and had them jump down my throat because "p0siTivELy tilteD TROughS can STIlL pr0duCe MajoR TOrNaDO events."

Well, yeah...BUT it is a lot less likely than with neutral to negatively tilted troughs. I can't confidently say that the mitigating factors we saw with today (and yesterday's) events were direct results of the positively tilted trough, but some (such as boundary-parallel flow promoting junk convection, and the best forcing and cold air aloft lagging behind the warm sector, seem to be common to them.

Do you think there was any particular reason why weather twitter went so crazy hype with this event? What made this one so insanely hyped? Was it the 50th anniversary of Xenia? Was it that these kids have gone so long without chasing they were wishing? 

[CheeselandSkies]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Do you think there was any particular reason why weather twitter went so crazy hype with this event? What made this one so insanely hyped? Was it the 50th anniversary of Xenia? Was it that these kids have gone so long without chasing they were wishing? 

Probably a little of both. The comparisons to 1974 and other ultra high-end outbreaks were ridiculous. This had nothing in common with those other than the general area at risk. Vastly different mid-upper level setup than that which has historically produced the top-tier outbreaks.

[Floydbuster]

1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Probably a little of both. The comparisons to 1974 and other ultra high-end outbreaks were ridiculous. This had nothing in common with those other than the general area at risk. Vastly different mid-upper level setup than that which has historically produced the top-tier outbreaks.

I literally saw "pray for Columbus" and "Central Ohio needs underground shelters ready" type stuff. It even scared me a little and I live near Cleveland/Akron!

[CheeselandSkies]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I literally saw "pray for Columbus" and "Central Ohio needs underground shelters ready" type stuff. It even scared me a little and I live near Cleveland/Akron!

 

[Floydbuster]

2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

 

 

 

When you see "absurdly dangerous" for Ohio, the general public gets terrified and expects nothing less than several F5 twisters roaring across Columbus. 

 

[Chinook]

I'm glad this wasn't a major disaster. Models/SPC also had quite a few chances for big storms down to Mississippi, but that didn't work out much.

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeah, some of that hype was just stupid. I'm glad I'm not on Twattle-X or the Reeking Muskverse or whatever it is.

To be fair to SPC, they have a pretty unenviable task conveying the type of threat that exists on a day like today. Today certainly could have produced a lot more than it did if a few ingredients had lined up better; but the chances of them lining up were pretty slim, if non-zero.

Contrast that to a day like March 31 of last year, which had some of the best model agreement I've ever seen in all the years I've been following weather (I wasn't looking at models much in advance of April 27, 2011, and anyway would have known a lot less about what I was looking at). Globals, mesoscale, CAMs all screamed a significant event, differing only in relatively small details of placement and ceiling.

[OHweather]

A few comments on this event, focused on the Ohio Valley...

1. An enhanced risk (for winds and possibly tornadoes too, pending surveys) was warranted across the Ohio Valley. From a verification stand point I do not think the Moderate Risk panned out anywhere (especially for tornadoes). The northern extent of the threat was significantly less than outlooked. 

2. The main reasons this busted were due to repeated rounds of convection that were ongoing both along and north of the warm front and in parts of the warm sector from last night through all of today. This chewed up the EML and limited destabilization farther north and east. You can tell that convection that tried firing along the cold front and a pre-frontal trough in the late afternoon and early evening was struggling due to limited spacing between it and pre-frontal convection that was already ongoing. The storm mode was also messy, probably because junk developed quickly in the warm sector and it was impossible to come back from that. 

3. I was concerned about some of the uncertainty and was surprised to see the Day 2 moderate (at least as far north/east as it was). I felt the 12z HRRR and NAM on Monday did depict outbreak scenarios and that the outlook needed to ramp up from the morning outlook on Monday...but there were enough CAMs with less exciting solutions for multiple reasons that the moderate risk was certainly an aggressive forecast. However, I thought something significant still had a decent chance to play out somewhere (likely in the Ohio Valley). With such a large warm sector, deepening low pressure and insane wind fields, it felt like it would be hard to avoid somewhere destabilizing and having a supercell or two take advantage of that locally more favorable environment. It's possible there were a couple of strong tornadoes today and there were probably more than a few weak tornadoes, including with the morning QLCS into WV. However, I would say I definitely expected more to happen even if certain parts of the threat/outlook didn't sit great with me. 

4. The Tennessee Valley generally busted too, due to junky convection firing too early in the warm sector down there. This whole event was cursed apparently. 

5. Given a fairly legitimate potential for a significant tornado or two somewhere this threat certainly required stronger than normal messaging. However, I feel like the way severe weather outlooks are often presented does not always do a good job of advertising uncertainty or bust potential. It's just "strong to severe storms possible between 3 and 8 PM, here's the outlook showing a slight risk". While I saw a couple of people in OH on Monday mention potential for ongoing clouds/rain earlier in the day to mess with the threat that generally was not mentioned until today when it was in fact raining. Instead, the messaging was focused on what is pretty much an unprecedented severe weather outlook, a Day 2 moderate risk driven by tornadoes. That was messaged as a very rare outlook for Ohio (which is not incorrect) and took on a life of its own. The event couldn't bust without meteorologists looking bad, so of course it busted for most of OH. 

Overall, severe weather risks that have a ceiling of a regional tornado outbreak but legitimate bust potential are a challenge to message and there's room to get better at it. 

[Chinook]

tornado at Conyers Georgia, by Atlanta. Also, tornado by Clanton Alabama (0403z). Thankfully I don't believe there's been a lot of storm reports down south. But these could be as dangerous as any night time tornado!

Quote

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN ROCKDALE COUNTY...

At 1202 AM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Milstead, or
near Conyers, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

 

[buckeye]

5 hours ago, OHweather said:

Overall, severe weather risks that have a ceiling of a regional tornado outbreak but legitimate bust potential are a challenge to message and there's room to get better at it. 

Kind of damned if you do…damned if you don’t.    I thought ILN did a good job with balancing everything,  their discussions were very matter of fact and included the mention of what could impede the threat.

[SolidIcewx]

6 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

I literally saw "pray for Columbus" and "Central Ohio needs underground shelters ready" type stuff. It even scared me a little and I live near Cleveland/Akron!

I was getting into it a bit with people on the Columbus subreddit. Just lots of people freaking out and worrying not understanding the basics of what’s going on upstairs so to speak. 

[Spartman]

9 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm not trying to cast any aspersions. I felt kind of bad for the relentless ripping the NWS took on social media. 

This was always more of an event for Kentucky and only extreme SW Ohio. To be honest, West Virginia seems to have been hit harder than any other place, and there was little focus. Was it because all the "storm chasers" live in Central Ohio? They didn't want to "chase" into rougher Appalachian terrain?

Other than a few scary model runs on Mon morning, there shouldn't have been such cause for alarm in Central Ohio.

I'm not downplaying the damage that we've seen and the tornados that have occurred, but I'm being honest, the twitter feed acted like the tornadoes would be F4 stovepipes ripping through Central Ohio in a 1974-type outbreak. I think Monday April 1st was some of the most insane weather/storm chaser hype I've ever seen on social media. Maybe these kids were just so overeager to chase they inflated it in their own mind? 

 

NWS really got hijacked by trolls on social media over that.