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April Medium/ Long Range Discussion


Weather Will
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On 4/16/2024 at 7:23 AM, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EPS shows drier but still averaging on the cool side for the last half of April.

IMG_3496.png

IMG_3497.png

Interesting. So on March 31, it's wet and cool. On April 16, still cool but drier. Meanwhile, it's been a very warm April. This forum is hilarious.

5th warmest [of 64 years] at IAD.

image.png.955d340f97b6285c4fe8f8502f68d9ee.png

13th warmest [of 153 years] at DCA.

image.png.1c10b7227a748136427d7272f9424abe.png

While only beaten out by 12 years since records began in 1871, the DCA ranking is misleading as heck as well. Prior to 2006, there are only four warmer Aprils to date (1941, 1945, 1980, and 1981). And one of those four (1980) is a negligible 0.1F warmer. This would have been considered an exceptionally warm April in the 1990s or early 2000s when I started observing the weather. That's only 20-ish years ago.

In one generation, what would have been considered a near record warm start to April is now considered "cool." How did we let this become normalized?

 

 

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12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. So on March 31, it's wet and cool. On April 16, still cool but drier. Meanwhile, it's been a very warm April. This forum is hilarious.

5th warmest [of 64 years] at IAD.

image.png.955d340f97b6285c4fe8f8502f68d9ee.png

13th warmest [of 153 years] at DCA.

image.png.1c10b7227a748136427d7272f9424abe.png

While only beaten out by 12 years since records began in 1871, the DCA ranking is misleading as heck as well. Prior to 2006, there are only four warmer Aprils to date (1941, 1945, 1980, and 1981). And one of those four (1980) is a negligible 0.1F warmer. This would have been considered an exceptionally warm April in the 1990s or early 2000s when I started observing the weather. That's only 20-ish years ago.

In one generation, what would have been considered a near record warm start to April is now considered "cool." How did we let this become normalized?

 

 

You crunching those numbers in Excel or is there a webpage that let's you create those tables?

 

Two thoughts:

1. Recency Bias. Yeah this would be a warm April pre turn of the century, but look at how many of the last 25 years are ahead of this year at DCA. #1, #2, and #7 are all in the last 7 years! That's what people remember, especially last year.

2. I'd be interested to see the average High / Low for the montth compared to normal. Avg temp only tells part of the story. A gloomy, cloudier than normal spring may have near average temperatures because of lower highs and higher lows. That doesn't mean it'll feel "warm"

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On 4/10/2024 at 6:43 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Signs of a +EPO pattern around Apr 23-24. Above average temperature pattern if that verifies. It could occur +days

Not much of a +EPO warm pattern in verification

 

First signs of a La Nina-dominated -PNA pattern in the Pacific throughout the run in the medium/long range on today's 18z GEFS

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