April 8 Great American Eclipse forecast

[Stebo]

15 minutes ago, buckeye said:

1200 feet inside line of totality.   Still debating whether to head a few miles nw or just get drunk in my backyard.

I hope all you people in ohio in the path stay at home so I can get home in a reasonable manner.

[buckeye]

20 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

With razor thin margins like that you may want to reconsider. The exact borders of the eclipse path are hard to ascertain for sure. This article may interest you, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2024/03/30/why-your-total-solar-eclipse-map-is-suddenly-wrong/?sh=a1b40e43d7d4

Also here is the map by John Irwin with the slightly altered eclipse path parameters. Whether he's correct, who knows.
https://www.besselianelements.com/path-of-the-2024-april-8th-total-solar-eclips/

awesome info....thank you.

So according to my exact gps location, I'll have 100% totality for 48.4 seconds.      That's good enough for me.    Cooler in the back yard it is!

[csnavywx]

21 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

I'm honing in on somewhere in the corridor from SE IL, near the IL/IN border, into C IN. Guidance seems to be in best agreement in keeping this corridor out of the expected high clouds, or at least keeping them minimal until after the eclipse. 

TX/OK/AR/MO all seem to be a lock to have high clouds of higher coverage and significance. While it may still be visible through the higher clouds in some areas in this corridor, the experience will be far from the same.

I never really considered the Northeast as a possibility, as it's going to be cooler (Would rather view in quality weather conditions), and there will likely be a higher density of viewers/travelers there due to the proximity to the higher population centers along the East Coast... And plus, I'm just not really interested in heading up that way anyway.

In 2017, I was down in Southwestern Illinois, just outside of the STL metro. I was right just inside the range of totality, so I got to experience brief totality and the effects of riding the edge. This go around, I plan on setting up in full/max totality.

I think I'd avoid IL altogether at this point. 250mb jet position and shared energy area is a dead ringer for getting washed out by thicker jet cirrus. Guidance has just started picking up on it and now dprog/dt is starting to trend the wrong way. That shit will come in fast and you won't have time to reposition adequately. It'll look fine in the morning and by lunch, you'll be screwed. 

[Powerball]

If you had told me Maine would have Texas beat for sky cover with this Eclipse several months or even several weeks ago, I would have called you crazy.

And yet, here we are...

[Spartman]

 

 

[cyclone77]

Will be fishing in MO north of the track in the Ozarks.  Saw totality back in 2017 though so I'm good.

[nrgjeff]

Cirrus does form in a hurry, and it moves fast on jet stream level winds. It will be a forecast challenge. However it's not stopping us!

Anything other than thick overcast will offer a show. We saw Totality in 2017 so the pressure is off, playing with house money. Obviously we want to see it again.

One thing high clouds give that clear does not, is the sharp shadow in the sky like a B-movie alien arrival. 360 sunset colors are accented even more; think sunrise/set with high clouds. Sounds interesting but Hell No I'm not chasing that!

Our goal is to sniff out some clear skies. Even broken cirrus moving along could give 1-2 minutes of full show in close to 4 minutes of totality. I think getting deep into the total path is important in case one loses time to passing clouds.

Cirrus forecast looks like ribbons under an otherwise very thin (and broken) veil. Compare visible satellite earlier today with model output. Euro is definitely broad brushing high clouds and it shouldn't be that bad. Said jet stream and subtle lift could easily produce that much cirrus (a risk) but the NAM and Canadian try to get more granular - and the result is broken cirrus and/or ribbons of cirrus.

This may be my last post. Saturday will be preparations, packing, and of course the higher resolutions models. Everyone can look at the hi-res stuff by then. Sunday is travel day.

Example: Indiana and Ohio have workable real estate in this prog. Little patch in the Missouri Bootheel is obviously not reliable this far out, but it gives the idea of coverage. Illinois probably won't be as bad as shown. So this is not a forecast. It's just an idea of somewhat more granular presentation than the coarse Euro. High-res stuff will have even more detail.

[CheeselandSkies]

Eclipse forecast seems to have improved for my area. Now looking at "mostly sunny" according to MKX.

[Brian D]

It'll being a rainy day for me, so when the eclipse hits it's peak for my area, a little added darkening to the gloomy day is all I get. Might be enough to get the street lights to come on.

Monday

Rain. High near 43. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

[nrgjeff]

Had a thought this morning about making it work through thin cirrus. First, the chart below is solar flux. I feel like it offers a better picture than cloud forecast, which is straight coverage. Even high cloud model forecasts NAM hardly differentiates between thick and thin. Canadian does somewhat. This is from the NAM and it's similar to RRFS output. Still too many hours out for HRRR (which doesn't present high clouds well anyway) and the ARW/NSSL which will be valuable. ARW/NSSL is more precise than the NAM, but none promise accuracy. 

18Z Edit this section (and other strikes italics): We'd thought about central Arkansas south of the high clouds, and hoping the increasing mid-level clouds from the south don't make it. Well that's a hell of an all-or-nothing gamble. Mid-level clouds thickening would block the show and be an utter disappointment. We are going to hedge our bets with the thin cirrus. I figure everyone reading has seen WPC and the Mid-South thread the needle chart. We concur. Chart below is different, again it's downward radiation flux. It's an hour after Totality because 19Z the high clouds didn't contrast well. New: Arkansas is looking better; we'll see how it goes, but keep met discussion to this region below..

Northeast Arkansas, Missouri Bootheel, Southern Illinois and Indiana are doable. I'm more optimistic than WPC about Western Ohio, but no promises. Note the lower values in central Indiana and western Ohio, by gentle gradient, are sun angle not cirrus. The smaller lighter areas are cirrus from Mizzou through southern Illinois to southern Indiana. Eastern Ohio of course has the departing morning wave too. Trying to dodge cirrus streaks is futile. We will lean south, but not much farther southwest than northeast Arkansas. Could be Bootheel or IL/IN.

Thin cirrus would still show most of the eclipse. Think full moon at dusk, it shows through cirrus. The high clouds Monday midday will be darkened by the shadow, which helps greatly. Near a solar max the bold corona will be visible through thin cirrus. Longer delicate filaments are in question thru cirrus; however, they might be anyway near a solar max. 2017 gorgeous streamers were partly compliments of the solar minimum, though they can happen anytime.

Finally the moon shadow would be a visible sharp line rapidly moving on the high clouds, like a flying saucer in a B-movie. I’d much rather the majestic navy-blue purple curtain shadow approach associated with clear skies, but the more marked shadow would actually be quite interesting. Obviously we don’t want to experiment with cirrus clouds. Hoping for clear skies.

Last post before travel Sunday. By 00Z additional high-resolution products come out, and they are fairly self-explanatory.
We eagerly await 18Z data and especially 00Z when the ARW and NSSL products will go through Monday afternoon. We will base from Western TN/KY Memphis. Totality destination will be firmed up Monday morning. Probably can't wait for 12Z as we need to get going early. Plan is to set up with hours to spare. In 2017 we arrived about an hour before partial phases started, but that was a layup 45 minutes from home. Looking for more cushion this time. Here in 2024 we will start south of Totality to save some bucks, and to hedge final destination in Totality.

[Chinook]

this might be getting worse for north central OH, better for Toledo. Last couple of NAM runs have varying cloud cover for NW Ohio. It's possible there could be a decrease in surface-based clouds(cumulus clouds) closer to totality due to lack of heating. I think this could make a difference for Indiana/Ohio and down to Arkansas but not for thicker cloud areas.

 

45 % humidity at the lower levels (OH/IN border) may help some cumulus clouds to form. The models have some upper level moisture, so that could be some cirrus clouds

[bdgwx]

0Z HRRR is forecasting the largest weather effects to be in Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois. The temperature drop in this region is 7 F and wind speeds get cut almost in half with directions changing from SSE to more S. It's short lived though. By 20Z everything reverts back to the state it was in at 18Z. 19Z is the eclipse peak.

[sbnwx85]

Glad we have a thread for this event. My plans with friends fell through so I’m just going to chase this by myself which is kind of exciting since I’m not tied to being stuck in one place. At this point I’ll be targeting Daleville, IN, an interstate town near Muncie. They also have a White Castle! 
 

For anyone on the fence about whether to go see totality or not: do it. It’s an incredible experience. Totality is like something out of a movie. To look up and see a “black hole” where the sun should be is awe inspiring. I had perfect, clear conditions in Missouri in 2017 and it was incredible. I was immediately hooked. I’m considering going overseas in a couple years to see another one in Spain.

[TheNiño]

Targeting New Castle, IN. Will make adjustments by tomorrow morning but that’s my spot as of now. 

[Powerball]

North Texas (including DFW) is looking a lot better on the lateat model runs skycover-wise. HRRR is even picking up on the temp drop during totality.

Hopefully, this trends continues and holds.

[bdgwx]

The penumbra begins sweeping over the CONUS with umbra off the Mexican coast at 18Z.

The umbra is over the central CONUS (near Cape Girardeau MO) at 19Z.

The penumbra is exiting the CONUS at 20Z.

[bdgwx]

It's just one model, but the 12Z HRRR is iffy everywhere except Maine. Based on the Incoming Direct Radiation cirrus are going to be thick enough to block some of the Sun through most of the path. Notice the reduction in direct insolation through southern MO and IL. Outside Maine it looks like Bloomington, IN and Cleveland, OH are the most favored areas, but it is a thread the needle situation. For reference Bloomington and Cleveland should be receiving about 800 W/m2 and 850 W/m2 respectively under clear skies at 18Z. See my post above with the Incoming Solar Radiation at 18Z for the baseline radiation. And note that Direct = Solar - Diffuse.  Diffuse is the amount scattered by the atmosphere and clouds. Direct is the amount that makes it through unscattered.

[Chicago Storm]

I'm honing in on somewhere in the corridor from SE IL, near the IL/IN border, into C IN. Guidance seems to be in best agreement in keeping this corridor out of the expected high clouds, or at least keeping them minimal until after the eclipse. 
TX/OK/AR/MO all seem to be a lock to have high clouds of higher coverage and significance. While it may still be visible through the higher clouds in some areas in this corridor, the experience will be far from the same.
I never really considered the Northeast as a possibility, as it's going to be cooler (Would rather view in quality weather conditions), and there will likely be a higher density of viewers/travelers there due to the proximity to the higher population centers along the East Coast... And plus, I'm just not really interested in heading up that way anyway.
In 2017, I was down in Southwestern Illinois, just outside of the STL metro. I was right just inside the range of totality, so I got to experience brief totality and the effects of riding the edge. This go around, I plan on setting up in full/max totality.

I think I'd avoid IL altogether at this point. 250mb jet position and shared energy area is a dead ringer for getting washed out by thicker jet cirrus. Guidance has just started picking up on it and now dprog/dt is starting to trend the wrong way. That shit will come in fast and you won't have time to reposition adequately. It'll look fine in the morning and by lunch, you'll be screwed. 

Have decided to focus on the IN portion of the corridor I had mentioned. Heading down to Indy later today, and will monitor trends tonight/Monday morning to adjust as needed.

For that MO/IL/IN/OH corridor, it seems like the better chance to avoid the worst of the cloud situation is there…possibly.

[bdgwx]

@Chicago Storm Yep. If I had to make a decision right now. It would be the IN/IL border near Vincennes. For me it is the best balance of low driving time and low odds of thicker cirrostratus.

[csnavywx]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

 

 

 

Have decided to focus on the IN portion of the corridor I had mentioned. Heading down to Indy later today, and will monitor trends tonight/Monday morning to adjust as needed.

For that MO/IL/IN/OH corridor, it seems like the better chance to avoid the worst of the cloud situation is there…possibly.

 

 

 

Sweet. Best of luck to ya and send us pics, man!

[Chinook]

HRRR says the temperature will decrease from 66 to 63 for me during the eclipse.

[BuffaloWeather]

I'll be heading for Sandusky, checking satellite tomorrow morning and adjusting for final location.

[King James]

Enjoy all the occult rituals today boys

[A-L-E-K]

will do

[A-L-E-K]

visible looks good, shame about the miss south, should have made plans

[ChiTownSnow]

19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

visible looks good, shame about the miss south, should have made plans

I'm still riding the NAM.. last min bump north and colder 

[bowtie`]

1 hour ago, King James said:

Enjoy all the occult rituals today boys

I plan on it. Giddy with excitement here. Let's Go!

[hoosierwx]

Looking good down here in Southern Indiana so far.  A little high cirrus but lots of blue sky peeking through. Fingers crossed.  

[bowtie`]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

visible looks good, shame about the miss south, should have made plans

Should have. Already the north side park is inundated with Illinois plated cars. I am being invaded. But that is OK. Anything in the name of looking to the heavens!

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Hopefully the weather is better for us in 2099. Good luck and enjoy the celestial event today everyone.