DLMKA Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Wanting to see some cloud cover and other weather for the April 8 eclipse that affects sub forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Added mine in the Holiday Forecast thread a few weeks ago. Front moving into the region. Will it move through in time, or hang out long enough to create possible cloudy conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Way too early 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 39 minutes ago, Chargers09 said: Way too early The precise weather conditions at the exact time of the eclipse for any specific location remain unknown this far out, but we're now close enough to April 8th to discuss large scale pattern trends as well as ensemble data, which is what FWD has been doing for the past several AFDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 From my location MO/IL/IN are my preferred eclipse targets. All are about tied for shortest distance for me. I have backup and tertiary rooms booked to cover Texas to Ohio. I agree that we can discuss the broad wx pattern, even if it'll be several days before pinning down locations. We do not want a system like April 1-2. That sucker gets positively tilted with fronts parallel to the Totality path. We just can't have that April 8. Current models have the April 7-8 system neutral, but the risk is that changes. Sometimes these things trend to positive tilt. A negative tilt would be easiest to manage, with the main moisture feed perpendicular to the Totality path. WF could be a painful exception, but still probably not the whole path.Trough orientation is all I care about right now. Neutral and negative could be managed by picking a better spot on the Path. Positive tilt could cause much longer drives, heartburn, and gnashing of teeth. I really don't even care about timing as much as tilt. Timing can be managed by changing location. A positive tilt could be heartbreaking. If one thinks it's too early, scroll on. We don't need another noise post (comment with no discussion) in an important thread. If anything, it's been time for a couple weeks now. Finally, perhaps we get lucky and at least short-wave ridging covers large parts of the path. Ten days out the forecast has as good a chance of improving as otherwise. If TX-OH is socked in, at about the 5-day mark I'll hit the panic button and think about the Northeast US. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Just noticed Pivotal has a dedicated section for the Eclipse. You can toggle states, models and view precipitation or cloud cover %. It's still early , but fun to look at. https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/?m=epsens&p=cloudcover_tle_4-mean&r=us_state_oh 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 NWS IND: .CLIMATE... Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024 The eclipse is now 10 days away, and we`re starting to pick up on a few long range signals. At 10 days out, there is still a lot of ambiguity and uncertainty in the forecast, but given a few consistent signals, a few assertions can be made. Let`s start off with the 2-4 day outlook and how it will impact April 8th. As mentioned previously, a deep trough is developing over the Eastern Pacific, and will pass through the Midwest early next week. The associated low pressure system is expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic region late next week, and should subsequently rapidly deepen as it interacts with increased coastal moisture. A upper level system over Canada is also expected to merge, further amplifying the East Coast trough/low. Given a strongly negative NAO and PNA, synoptic scale influence should dictate the pattern, and the rapidly deepening low pressure system should "bottle-up" the upstream waves. This can be visualized by a relatively tight Mountain-West ridge in the GEFS 500mb height spaghetti plot around 140-200 hours from initialization. Many ensembles are subsequently picking up on a Rex block type pattern over the CONUS next weekend as we approach eclipse day. As stated, there is still some uncertainty on where this blocking pattern will be positioned, but typically, long range models are too progressive with Rex blocks, leading to the current belief that downstream ridging will be present over the Ohio Valley by eclipse day. It`s difficult to downscale this synoptic pattern into a specific cloud forecast for April 8th, but we will continue to monitor pattern signals/consistency and update as needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 We live just about .5 miles inside the path of totality. I have read that the closer you are to the center the longer it lasts. I’ve also read that being right on the edge has advantages because of some unique effects can be witnessed that you don’t get in the center. What would you do? Drive further northwest towards center or stay put on the edge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Excited for the serpent rockets and CERN stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Same dilemma here in Bellbrook. Don't have an answer yet in my mind. Watching the forecast and optimistic we might have a fairly sunny day. Whatever is decided on the drive or not drive, stay away from the Interstates. They will be a mess. I have plotted a back country route into eastern Indiana if that's what I decide. My sister lives in Nashville Indiana, She is near the middle of the cone, thus a long duration period of totality. She told me retailers in town are selling parking spots for up to $150, with no refunds it ifs overcast. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 00z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Go near the center if this is your first total solar eclipse. Or second or third, haha! On 3/31/2024 at 5:23 AM, buckeye said: We live just about .5 miles inside the path of totality. I have read that the closer you are to the center the longer it lasts. I’ve also read that being right on the edge has advantages because of some unique effects can be witnessed that you don’t get in the center. What would you do? Drive further northwest towards center or stay put on the edge? Edge gives a longer diamond ring and I imagine just wild colors if thin high clouds. Still one can't safely look at even the diamond ring naked eye. I don't see myself playing the edge unless I'm lucky enough to see 10-12 of these (not likely). Totality is safe naked eye. In totality one can safely observe the smaller orange prominences. Also the wider corona is safe to view and one of the most - if not thee most - spectacular things in nature. I love storm chasing, and Totality blows the doors off most tornadoes. It's even better than a long-track cyclical. Northern Lights from the Arctic might be the only thing that rivals Totality, but I give totality the edge. Time charts you'll notice the length of totality quickly drops off toward the edges. But the center third one loses only a few seconds off the center-line. We got just off-center in 2017 and might have avoided traffic with the head start out. Same plan 2024. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Accuweather: https://www.accuweather.com/en/solar-eclipse-2024/total-solar-eclipse-cloud-forecast-where-will-clouds-spoil-the-show/1636042 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 On 3/31/2024 at 5:23 AM, buckeye said: We live just about .5 miles inside the path of totality. I have read that the closer you are to the center the longer it lasts. I’ve also read that being right on the edge has advantages because of some unique effects can be witnessed that you don’t get in the center. What would you do? Drive further northwest towards center or stay put on the edge? https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/map/2024-april-8 This is a pretty cool map you can see totality times for any point and click location. Thinking of doing the midway between outer edge and centrrline of totality, you still get 2+ minutes, but likely avoid traffic nightmare closer to the centerline. Close to the edge you only get a few seconds so Id probably drive a little further to get more time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 On 3/31/2024 at 5:23 AM, buckeye said: We live just about .5 miles inside the path of totality. I have read that the closer you are to the center the longer it lasts. I’ve also read that being right on the edge has advantages because of some unique effects can be witnessed that you don’t get in the center. What would you do? Drive further northwest towards center or stay put on the edge? I'm in the same boat, but about 5 miles from totality. I'm staying put, the back yard is good enough for me. I've told everyone that will listen that it's gonna be cloudy anyway, just because that's the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 22 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I'm in the same boat, but about 5 miles from totality. I'm staying put, the back yard is good enough for me. I've told everyone that will listen that it's gonna be cloudy anyway, just because that's the odds. with my luck the damn thing will defy all laws of astro-physics and trend NW. That's how we roll in central Ohio 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 minute ago, buckeye said: with my luck the damn thing will defy all laws of astro-physics and trend NW. That's how we roll in central Ohio I said earlier in the banter thread that I was fearing the northwest trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 I recommend the short drive to Totality. It's not hard if 30 minutes or less. Remember 99% partial is like losing the National Championship by a point. On 4/3/2024 at 9:59 AM, IWXwx said: I'm in the same boat, but about 5 miles from totality. I'm staying put, the back yard is good enough for me. I've told everyone that will listen that it's gonna be cloudy anyway, just because that's the odds. Even if the forecast is a mess, a 30 minute drive is absolutely worth the try for a once in a lifetime awe inspiring phenomenon. Even at 99.9% no corona or prominences are visible. No 360 degree sunset. The shadow would be evident to your side, and you'd see shadow bands on a white surface for several minutes. Animals will react. However the difference between that and Totality is the difference between kissing and getting married (and you know). Take side roads, especially back. We did in 2017 from 45 minutes away. We were relaxing back in town over steak dinner, not caught in traffic. This applies local/close. Long distance travel will be a whip Monday afternoon/eve. We'll stay over another night there in 2024. Bottom line: If you can get to totality in 30 minutes, even with a crappy forecast, try it. Totality hype is one of the few things in our hobbies that's not over-hyped. In fact it's under-hyped. No words or photos capture the incredible everything(s) about Totality! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 I'm 7 miles from the dead center line, but only 500 feet from Lake Erie. Might the lake impact local viewing conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Back in Feb 1979, when I was in school, we had a total eclipse nearby here. I remember the teacher had us poke a hole in a piece of construction paper, and aim it at the Sun during the eclipse. And had us lay a piece of paper flat behind it. You could watch the shadow of the moon on that flat paper slowly cover part of the Sun. No eclipse glasses back then, at least not for us. Got about as dark as when a strong storm complex moves in, and the street lights come on. Here's the path of that eclipse from NASA files. https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhistory/SEplot/SE1979Feb26T.pdf Jan of 1925 was the last time a total eclipse went over the Great Lakes. Started right over N MN. https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhistory/SEplot/SE1925Jan24T.pdf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 I have never clung to the Canadian more in my entire life lol 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 I'm honing in on somewhere in the corridor from SE IL, near the IL/IN border, into C IN. Guidance seems to be in best agreement in keeping this corridor out of the expected high clouds, or at least keeping them minimal until after the eclipse. TX/OK/AR/MO all seem to be a lock to have high clouds of higher coverage and significance. While it may still be visible through the higher clouds in some areas in this corridor, the experience will be far from the same. I never really considered the Northeast as a possibility, as it's going to be cooler (Would rather view in quality weather conditions), and there will likely be a higher density of viewers/travelers there due to the proximity to the higher population centers along the East Coast... And plus, I'm just not really interested in heading up that way anyway. In 2017, I was down in Southwestern Illinois, just outside of the STL metro. I was right just inside the range of totality, so I got to experience brief totality and the effects of riding the edge. This go around, I plan on setting up in full/max totality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I'm honing in on somewhere in the corridor from SE IL, near the IL/IN border, into C IN. Guidance seems to be in best agreement in keeping this corridor out of the expected high clouds, or at least keeping them minimal until after the eclipse. TX/OK/AR/MO all seem to be a lock to have high clouds of higher coverage and significance. While it may still be visible through the higher clouds in some areas in this corridor, the experience will be far from the same. I never really considered the Northeast as a possibility, as it's going to be cooler (Would rather view in quality weather conditions), and there will likely be a higher density of viewers/travelers there due to the proximity to the higher population centers along the East Coast... And plus, I'm just not really interested in heading up that way anyway. In 2017, I was down in Southwestern Illinois, just outside of the STL metro. I was right just inside the range of totality, so I got to experience brief totality and the effects of riding the edge. This go around, I plan on setting up in full/max totality. My Aunt lives in Mt.Carmel will tell her your coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 September 14, 2099 there will be a Solar eclipse with the totality passing right through Minneapolis and Madison. Too bad I’ll be 109 or more likely dead. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_eclipse_of_September_14,_2099 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 glad to see the forecast showing a decent amount of clearing in SE IN. I remember the 2017 eclipse, I was in 6th grade and not able to see it, but set my sights on this one lol. about seven years in the making for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 14 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: September 14, 2099 there will be a Solar eclipse with the totality passing right through Minneapolis and Madison. Too bad I’ll be 109 or more likely dead. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_eclipse_of_September_14,_2099 128 for me ; if I am around ...... ohhh forget it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 I will more than likely be in Ohio for this unless something dramatically changes, then I will be in Indiana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 I've narrowed it down with my family to 2 remaining reservations. Either I'll be in southern Illinois/Missouri (Carbondale/Cape Girardeau) or I'll be in Indiana (Shelbyville/Bloomington). The former looks marginally better than the latter but at the expense of added drive time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 1200 feet inside line of totality. Still debating whether to head a few miles nw or just get drunk in my backyard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 6 minutes ago, buckeye said: 1200 feet inside line of totality. Still debating whether to head a few miles nw or just get drunk in my backyard. With razor thin margins like that you may want to reconsider. The exact borders of the eclipse path are hard to ascertain for sure. This article may interest you, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2024/03/30/why-your-total-solar-eclipse-map-is-suddenly-wrong/?sh=a1b40e43d7d4 Also here is the map by John Irwin with the slightly altered eclipse path parameters. Whether he's correct, who knows.https://www.besselianelements.com/path-of-the-2024-april-8th-total-solar-eclips/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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