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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Yeah, 2m temp avg cooled off by a full degree Celsius vs 12z

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I think you will see this continue as we get closer,Most of the time, These trend colder in the end.

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2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Yeah, which benefits everybody overall with a colder column

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Whether its rain or snow, It will by high impact, Wind and storm surge from the east just enhances things too.

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26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

See I agree with you. I’d still stay climo that you want to be from you to ORH hills, Berks, and north in the usual interior elevations.

Of course a CCB like that is going to crush heavy wet snow to the surface but just go climo right now.

Unless it trends south .. south of ORH won’t see anything significant . And I fully expect to wake up tomorrow to moves north . Of course I hope that’s not the case, but these don’t typically trend south as you get closer in 

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31 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I know it’s been a historically warm winter but it didn’t start that way in November and has ended that way in March/early April…so ya I’m running out of firewood, burned a ton of it this year 

Well, after this storm you'll have plenty of blowdowns around town to cut split stack

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38 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Ya it’s a much different system than last weekends. If I had to guess I’d say the winners will be further south than the last one 

 

36 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I agree.

Oh how we pray. 

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It looks like a big coastal storm is in the cards. Obviously a long way to go, dialing in Wintery outcomes for parts of SNE.  
Easter Sunday will be my make or break day,  to figure out if this has a chance,  of being a special spring storm for New England. 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Significant Miller B Nor'easter potential is signaled across Apr 3rd-4th ...

A chilly 850 mb anomaly is in position over SE Canada  ...infiltrated throughout the eastern GL and NE England regions, prior to a strong -NAO maxing over the western limb of the domain.

image.thumb.png.faa5d833ac8693335c903b8d55a83df1.png

This aspect is situated while there is an undercutting trough of significant amplitude. Any kind of emergent trough is highly statistically correlated with this particular kind of -NAO expression, but below we see what really amounts to a phenomenally exquisite expression of that.  Given to the high correlation,  notwithstanding the "stable look" to this synoptic evolution ... confidence is quite high for at least the general set up.

image.thumb.png.ed75513f0ee8d8aef50c7166361d8a97.png

Anomalously high baroclinic instability in situ despite the lateness of the date/spring season.  As the above mid and upper level events unfold over top that lower level temperature gradient ( see the 850 mb charts from the operational Euro/GFS/GGEM further above) ...  strong cyclogenesis is well within the realm of possibilities, and the only limitation on this as far as I can see given these rather elegantly, yet glaringly obvious precursor metrics is the fact that this above is about 144 to 156 hours away.  

Unfortunately ... confidence is only very high for an event. What that event's particulars will mean as far as specific impacts is still pending.  But sufficed it is to say ...this is a classic leading layout for late season snow impact.   What is also interesting about this - from a personal anecdotal/experience perspective, these spring storms tend to actually be modeled more marginal/warmer than this, at this sort of time range - only to tick colder as the time nears to a 'blue timber bender' storm.  This already has the look from all sources, and has been a recurrent theme over the past week. Dynamic height falls and just wholesale evolution of common winter metrics that are involved, snow would be a slam dunk.  It's worth it to follow this ...lest the new April thread has 900 pages by the 5th of the month...

I also am aware that interest in winter -related subject matter may be diminishing at this point. Seasonal awareness, along with just issue fatigue for having been abused so mercilessly over the last 4 months ( LOL )... but it is what it.  It is noted that the 00z Euro CCB's the hell out of interior and eastern SNE out of this ordeal.  It is also something that we haven't seen much of in recent years, a slower moving event.

 

 

 

 

Fixed.

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Tonight and tomorrow will be pretty big for the confidence of this storm track. Typically if you’re gonna see a big move, it’s that period from 120ish to getting inside of 100 hours. 

The biggest threat zone right now is prob something like western Maine foothills (like Bridgton and lakes regions there) down through dendrite-land into Monads, N ORH hills and Berks/S VT. 

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