Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th

[PowderBeard]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Croaked 

 

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What is wind?

 

 

Blizzard watch/warnings for coastal Maine?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

 

 

You have a genny i presume?

[Ski Patroller]

https://www.mountwashingtonavalanchecenter.org/forecasts/#/presidential-range

Avalanche Watch
ISSUED Tuesday, April 2, 2024 - 4:00PM EXPIRES Friday, April 5, 2024 - 4:00PM
What

A significant winter storm, bringing the possibility of 30+ inches of snow and strong wind to the higher summits in the Presidential Range, will create dangerous avalanche conditions.
When

In effect from Tuesday, April 2, 2024 - 4:00PM to Friday, April 5, 2024 - 4:00PM
Where

The Presidential Range avalanche forecast area, including but not limited to Tuckerman Ravine, Huntington Ravine, Gulf of Slides, Great Gulf, King Ravine, Burt Ravine, Ammonoosuc Ravine, Oakes Gulf and steep, open terrain in the mountains that are bounded by US Rt 2, US Rt 302, and NH Rt 16. This includes hiking trails that traverse across steep terrain like Summer Lion Head trail. Similar avalanche danger may exist at locations outside the coverage area where steep, open terrain exists that has collected wind drifted snow.
Impacts

Large, destructive avalanches are likely to occur naturally and spontaneously and will exist throughout steep terrain including hiking trails.These avalanches may be large enough to bury multiple people, do significant damage to trees or buildings, and will likely run far down in paths or to areas that are normally considered safe zones. Precipitation rates are forecast to be heavy, with 1-2 inches of snow falling per hour at times and visibility limited.
Precautionary/Preparedness Actions

As the storm develops, expect rapidly changing and dangerous conditions. Strong winds and heavy snow will limit visibility with white out conditions expected. Avoid traveling in or near avalanche terrain.

[ariof]

2 minutes ago, Ski Patroller said:

https://www.mountwashingtonavalanchecenter.org/forecasts/#/presidential-range

Avalanche Watch
ISSUED Tuesday, April 2, 2024 - 4:00PM EXPIRES Friday, April 5, 2024 - 4:00PM
What

A significant winter storm, bringing the possibility of 30+ inches of snow and strong wind to the higher summits in the Presidential Range, will create dangerous avalanche conditions.
When

In effect from Tuesday, April 2, 2024 - 4:00PM to Friday, April 5, 2024 - 4:00PM
Where

The Presidential Range avalanche forecast area, including but not limited to Tuckerman Ravine, Huntington Ravine, Gulf of Slides, Great Gulf, King Ravine, Burt Ravine, Ammonoosuc Ravine, Oakes Gulf and steep, open terrain in the mountains that are bounded by US Rt 2, US Rt 302, and NH Rt 16. This includes hiking trails that traverse across steep terrain like Summer Lion Head trail. Similar avalanche danger may exist at locations outside the coverage area where steep, open terrain exists that has collected wind drifted snow.
Impacts

Large, destructive avalanches are likely to occur naturally and spontaneously and will exist throughout steep terrain including hiking trails.These avalanches may be large enough to bury multiple people, do significant damage to trees or buildings, and will likely run far down in paths or to areas that are normally considered safe zones. Precipitation rates are forecast to be heavy, with 1-2 inches of snow falling per hour at times and visibility limited.
Precautionary/Preparedness Actions

As the storm develops, expect rapidly changing and dangerous conditions. Strong winds and heavy snow will limit visibility with white out conditions expected. Avoid traveling in or near avalanche terrain.

Basically a reminder that while it might say April, Tux isn't spring skiing this week or probably weekend. (The Sherbie should be in, though!)

[powderfreak]

The Reggie version of the HRRR seems super warm tomorrow evening.

Edit, but recovers nicely lol.

[PowderBeard]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The Reggie version of the HRRR seems super warm tomorrow evening.

I've been paying attention to it the past few storms and it seems to really over-does thermals.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

More realistic too…

This is ALY’s latest. 

[ORH_wxman]

18z GFS is just bonkers between 06z and 12z for extreme NE MA and SE NH. Like 3 hourly QPF of around an inch between 06z and 09z in Essex county and Rockingham county. That’s one way to overcome elevation deficiency. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The Reggie version of the HRRR seems super warm tomorrow evening.

Edit, but recovers nicely lol.

Look at that gradient from the N shore to my house...that would be nice payback for 12 5 2003 lol

[dryslot]

23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The Reggie version of the HRRR seems super warm tomorrow evening.

Edit, but recovers nicely lol.

The column collapses quickly by the time it gets up here, That's been well modeled over all guidance several days here.

[NorEastermass128]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The Reggie version of the HRRR seems super warm tomorrow evening.

Edit, but recovers nicely lol.

Razors edge. Like you couldn’t draw it up better to be more of a tease for here. Haha

[dryslot]

GFS has remained steadfast for this area as i mentioned earlier for several cycles.

[Prismshine Productions]

Albany raised my totals to match the Burlington map, 8.6 for me with a high end of 15 and floor of 6

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS is just bonkers between 06z and 12z for extreme NE MA and SE NH. Like 3 hourly QPF of around an inch between 06z and 09z in Essex county and Rockingham county. That’s one way to overcome elevation deficiency. 

It's like Jan 7...I am staying up for that. If it looks like it will bust, then I'll just bail and pass out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I remember I posted earlier today that I was surprised we hadn't seen any runs take on a SWFE appeal as of yet...18z GFS just took care of that.

 

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's like Jan 7...I am staying up for that. If it looks like it will bust, then I'll just bail and pass out.

Yeah and I think we’ll have a decent idea by tomorrow afternoon if it’s likely or not. I am assuming the differences in model guidance right now will try to converge a little more…or we’ll either see one last bump south or north in these next couple cycles. If it bumps south, then it’s easily game-on for you, if it bumps north, game over. Status quo? You might be nowcasting. 

[RDRY]

Berks look cooked. Why ruin a perfect skunked season?

[TalcottWx]

10 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Berks look cooked. Why ruin a perfect skunked season?

Where, exactly? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and I think we’ll have a decent idea by tomorrow afternoon if it’s likely or not. I am assuming the differences in model guidance right now will try to converge a little more…or we’ll either see one last bump south or north in these next couple cycles. If it bumps south, then it’s easily game-on for you, if it bumps north, game over. Status quo? You might be nowcasting. 

This is nuts...literally razor's edge here.

[HoarfrostHubb]

36 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GFS has remained steadfast for this area as i mentioned earlier for several cycles.

Yeah. Your area has been a lock for a while

[Weathernoob335]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is nuts...literally razor's edge here.

Likewise, bit less so but a few ticks N and we are screwed aswell

 

Edit: atleast in my particular region of N ORH

[HoarfrostHubb]

That Wxbell map looks a bit skewed East.  Look at the CT river valley

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Weathernoob335 said:

Likewise, bit less so but a few ticks N and we are screwed aswell

 

Edit: atleast in my particular region of N ORH

I apologize for asking again... what town?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I apologize for asking again... what town?

Apology not accepted.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Apology not accepted.

Biggest storm of the season incoming for you?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Biggest storm of the season incoming for you?

Decent shot at second....which is Jan 16 at........ 3.5"

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

18Z GFS Positive Depth Change looking really healthy IMBY.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, Jebman said:

Tip, I apologize for messing with your post earlier. I won't do it ever again.

I really enjoy when you recognize a pattern then get into serious, energetic, enthusiastic analysis mode! That's when you start making those trillion dollar posts like the one at the beginning of this thread, and when I read it I feel like I just won 50 billion dollars on the mega millions. I really truly seriously love those posts you make where you analyze a promising pattern, setup to a decent blizzard for the SNE.

It was funny friend. ha... I really don't care - seriously. 

[Weathernoob335]

15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I apologize for asking again... what town?

Ah if you asked and I didn't say I'm sorry, Royalston

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Weathernoob335 said:

Ah if you asked and I didn't say I'm sorry, Royalston

Now there be dragons.