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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dendrite
dendrite

I had a 1/2” of sleet in between 15” of snow while you were installing. Keep that in the back of your mind. 

Ginx snewx
Ginx snewx

Yea north while you are under blizzard conditions.  At least try to let the runs finish before you add your depressive takes.

dendrite
dendrite

All SNE needed was for Ray to cancel his model subscription 

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Ski Patroller

Ski Patroller

Posted
Posted

https://www.mountwashingtonavalanchecenter.org/forecasts/#/presidential-range

Avalanche Watch
ISSUED Tuesday, April 2, 2024 - 4:00PM EXPIRES Friday, April 5, 2024 - 4:00PM
What

A significant winter storm, bringing the possibility of 30+ inches of snow and strong wind to the higher summits in the Presidential Range, will create dangerous avalanche conditions.
When

In effect from Tuesday, April 2, 2024 - 4:00PM to Friday, April 5, 2024 - 4:00PM
Where

The Presidential Range avalanche forecast area, including but not limited to Tuckerman Ravine, Huntington Ravine, Gulf of Slides, Great Gulf, King Ravine, Burt Ravine, Ammonoosuc Ravine, Oakes Gulf and steep, open terrain in the mountains that are bounded by US Rt 2, US Rt 302, and NH Rt 16. This includes hiking trails that traverse across steep terrain like Summer Lion Head trail. Similar avalanche danger may exist at locations outside the coverage area where steep, open terrain exists that has collected wind drifted snow.
Impacts

Large, destructive avalanches are likely to occur naturally and spontaneously and will exist throughout steep terrain including hiking trails.These avalanches may be large enough to bury multiple people, do significant damage to trees or buildings, and will likely run far down in paths or to areas that are normally considered safe zones. Precipitation rates are forecast to be heavy, with 1-2 inches of snow falling per hour at times and visibility limited.
Precautionary/Preparedness Actions

As the storm develops, expect rapidly changing and dangerous conditions. Strong winds and heavy snow will limit visibility with white out conditions expected. Avoid traveling in or near avalanche terrain.

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ariof

ariof

Posted
Posted
  On 4/2/2024 at 9:58 PM, Ski Patroller said:

https://www.mountwashingtonavalanchecenter.org/forecasts/#/presidential-range

Avalanche Watch
ISSUED Tuesday, April 2, 2024 - 4:00PM EXPIRES Friday, April 5, 2024 - 4:00PM
What

A significant winter storm, bringing the possibility of 30+ inches of snow and strong wind to the higher summits in the Presidential Range, will create dangerous avalanche conditions.
When

In effect from Tuesday, April 2, 2024 - 4:00PM to Friday, April 5, 2024 - 4:00PM
Where

The Presidential Range avalanche forecast area, including but not limited to Tuckerman Ravine, Huntington Ravine, Gulf of Slides, Great Gulf, King Ravine, Burt Ravine, Ammonoosuc Ravine, Oakes Gulf and steep, open terrain in the mountains that are bounded by US Rt 2, US Rt 302, and NH Rt 16. This includes hiking trails that traverse across steep terrain like Summer Lion Head trail. Similar avalanche danger may exist at locations outside the coverage area where steep, open terrain exists that has collected wind drifted snow.
Impacts

Large, destructive avalanches are likely to occur naturally and spontaneously and will exist throughout steep terrain including hiking trails.These avalanches may be large enough to bury multiple people, do significant damage to trees or buildings, and will likely run far down in paths or to areas that are normally considered safe zones. Precipitation rates are forecast to be heavy, with 1-2 inches of snow falling per hour at times and visibility limited.
Precautionary/Preparedness Actions

As the storm develops, expect rapidly changing and dangerous conditions. Strong winds and heavy snow will limit visibility with white out conditions expected. Avoid traveling in or near avalanche terrain.

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Basically a reminder that while it might say April, Tux isn't spring skiing this week or probably weekend. (The Sherbie should be in, though!)

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

18z GFS is just bonkers between 06z and 12z for extreme NE MA and SE NH. Like 3 hourly QPF of around an inch between 06z and 09z in Essex county and Rockingham county. That’s one way to overcome elevation deficiency. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 4/2/2024 at 10:17 PM, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS is just bonkers between 06z and 12z for extreme NE MA and SE NH. Like 3 hourly QPF of around an inch between 06z and 09z in Essex county and Rockingham county. That’s one way to overcome elevation deficiency. 

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It's like Jan 7...I am staying up for that. If it looks like it will bust, then I'll just bail and pass out.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 4/2/2024 at 10:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's like Jan 7...I am staying up for that. If it looks like it will bust, then I'll just bail and pass out.

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Yeah and I think we’ll have a decent idea by tomorrow afternoon if it’s likely or not. I am assuming the differences in model guidance right now will try to converge a little more…or we’ll either see one last bump south or north in these next couple cycles. If it bumps south, then it’s easily game-on for you, if it bumps north, game over. Status quo? You might be nowcasting. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 4/2/2024 at 10:48 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and I think we’ll have a decent idea by tomorrow afternoon if it’s likely or not. I am assuming the differences in model guidance right now will try to converge a little more…or we’ll either see one last bump south or north in these next couple cycles. If it bumps south, then it’s easily game-on for you, if it bumps north, game over. Status quo? You might be nowcasting. 

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This is nuts...literally razor's edge here.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
  On 4/2/2024 at 7:28 PM, Jebman said:

Tip, I apologize for messing with your post earlier. I won't do it ever again.

I really enjoy when you recognize a pattern then get into serious, energetic, enthusiastic analysis mode! That's when you start making those trillion dollar posts like the one at the beginning of this thread, and when I read it I feel like I just won 50 billion dollars on the mega millions. I really truly seriously love those posts you make where you analyze a promising pattern, setup to a decent blizzard for the SNE.

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It was funny friend. ha... I really don't care - seriously.  :)

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