40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Just now, DomNH said: It's not an isothermal paste bomb sounding though during the overnight hours once the H7 warmth washes out. It's pretty damn cold right about down to the surface. Yea, its really a mid level warmth issue and I usually do well with those...its the low levels that normally get me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 RAP is toasty aloft now too. Not that it's worth a ton at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 They were warned and taunted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 3 minutes ago, DomNH said: It's not an isothermal paste bomb sounding though during the overnight hours once the H7 warmth washes out. It's pretty damn cold right about down to the surface. Yes. It’s pretty cold in the 925 layer around -3ish Heres the sounding at 06z tomorrow night near you while GFS is pounding…you can see how once off the immediate surface, you’re comfortably below freezing so this isn’t going to be a scenario where you have slush balls falling through an isothermal layer 3000 feet thick and not sticking well. If the rate are good, accumulations will easily be 10:1 on that type of sounding…you might even pull 15:1 for a while with that cross hair sig, but I’d want to see all the models agree on that before taking it too seriously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 at some point the cold is just going to overwhelm the soundings and the edgy models that are IP/cat pawing may bust ... it's like venturing too close to the 'thermal event horizon' and the phase change physics pulls you down. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: NAM bufkit for PWM early Thursday morning. This is a true blizzard. Blizzard for the ages My biggest concern is the near surface freezing temps. Is that enough to change the character of the snow, because otherwise it should be pretty dry stuff. There's also a real chance we can dynamically cool the surface even more when we toss a bunch of precip into the column given how cold it is just off the deck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 I can't wait to see what actually happens. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: at some point the cold is just going to overwhelm the soundings and the edgy models that are IP/cat pawing may bust ... it's like venturing too close to the 'thermal event horizon' and the phase change physics pulls you down. I think omega/lift will have a lot to do with it too. If we get a very good area of consolidated strong lift, the soundings are going to want to flash colder. But if we keep things a little more banded and slightly less organized or the lift just isn’t quite as intense, it’s prob a lot more sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: My biggest concern is the near surface freezing temps. Is that enough to change the character of the snow, because otherwise it should be pretty dry stuff. There's also a real chance we can dynamically cool the surface even more when we toss a bunch of precip into the column given how cold it is just off the deck. given the steep lapse rate you would think the neat sfc freezing temp is probably a very shallow layer and then quickly cooling but yeah there certainly is room to cool the column further. Can you recall seeing a winter storm potential where bufkit was spitting out 65-70 knots atop the mixed layer? I'm sure it's happened but that seems quite anomalous for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: at some point the cold is just going to overwhelm the soundings and the edgy models that are IP/cat pawing may bust ... it's like venturing too close to the 'thermal event horizon' and the phase change physics pulls you down. You still not feeling this one? You seemed pessimistic due to the decaying dynamics on approach.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think omega/lift will have a lot to do with it too. If we get a very good area of consolidated strong lift, the soundings are going to want to flash colder. But if we keep things a little more banded and slightly less organized or the lift just isn’t quite as intense, it’s prob a lot more sleet. yeah I mean I was thinking along the lines of UVM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: My biggest concern is the near surface freezing temps. Is that enough to change the character of the snow, because otherwise it should be pretty dry stuff. There's also a real chance we can dynamically cool the surface even more when we toss a bunch of precip into the column given how cold it is just off the deck. That sounding honestly looks like it would be in the upper 20s range at the sfc if you have heavy lift. You’re pulling -5C not very far off the deck there. But the million dollar question remains is how organized can we keep the heavy lift? Given the relatively late nature of the secondary development and the ULL remaining very strong to our west, I worry about conveyor mechanics getting out of sync. But this subtle trend of “bulging” out the H5 low to the east and lowering heights there is helping over the past few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 EURO looks warmer than 06z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 12z euro looks a bit warmer than 06z. Took a step back. Gonna have to sweat it out apparently in the N MA/S NH zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z euro looks a bit warmer than 06z. Took a step back. Gonna have to sweat it out apparently in the N MA/S NH zone. Its even a hair worse than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EURO looks warmer than 06z. As soon as I looped H5 (I usually do that first) I knew it was going to be slightly worse since it wasn’t bulging out the H5 heights quite as well to the east as 06z was. That, in turn, pushes the midlevel warmth and dryslot further north. It’s crucial we keep the H7 front south of us through 12z Thursday if we want warning criteria snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 The models can't even get winter right in the spring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The models can't even get winter right in the spring. No point looking at them past 5 days but we still do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You still not feeling this one? You seemed pessimistic due to the decaying dynamics on approach.... Yeeeah first and foremost I'm trying to be objective..heh. I'm not sure I was being pessimistic just noting stuff. In the same vein, the models are trying to give some mechanic back here in the short range. The deep layer trough closes off too soon ( still ) for liking. It reaches a rather potent depth for April 3 climo all the way down to 520 dm centered ~ SW lower Michigan. It then fills over the next 12 hours back up to 532 dm or so, centered over N PA... But then a new center carves down to 526 dm openning up over Albany, after which it moves E across SNE as a height fall region in the midst of the ongoing CCB hosing SE NH. That interval is coincident with the overnight stuff 03 to 12z Wed nigh into dawn on Thur. It may have been more or less hinted prior runs, but its more obvious now. These "edgy" spring systems are sensy to nuances like that and can make or break the sensible profile of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Next! Folks on the razor’s edge are set up for disappointment. Positive busts are tough to achieve in mid winter, let alone early April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Euro blows. Bunch of sleet to a crusty inch before it dries out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 Of course ... no sooner do I post that and the Euro comes out to directly point out those differences. I don't like the fact that this thing "might" be too closed off too soon. It really deepened aloft unusually quickly and coiled up around itself too early. They become donked tired pos after doing that. A run like this Euro decides to make the system more annular looking like that .. It's like the Euro wants to ride the line between typical April climate 500 mb lows, versus the GFS that says there's just enough to get something more interesting done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeeeah first and foremost I'm trying to be objective..heh. I'm not sure I was being pessimistic just noting stuff. In the same vein, the models are trying to give some mechanic back here in the short range. The deep layer trough closes off too soon ( still ) for liking. It reaches a rather potent depth for April 3 climo all the way down to 520 dm centered ~ SW lower Michigan. It then fills over the next 12 hours back up to 532 dm or so, centered over N PA... But then a new center carves down to 526 dm openning up over Albany, after which it moves E across SNE as a height fall region in the midst of the ongoing CCB hosing SE NH. That interval is coincident with the overnight stuff 03 to 12z Wed nigh into dawn on Thur. It may have been more or less hinted prior runs, but its more obvious now. These "edgy" spring systems are sensy to nuances like that and can make or break the sensible profile of storms. Poor choice of words perhaps...maybe measured or conservative would have been better, as I didn't intend to imply that there was any type of conscious effort or that the sentiment was emotionally driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Of course ... no sooner do I post that and the Euro comes out to directly point out those differences. I don't like the fact that this thing "might" be too closed off too soon. It really deepened aloft unusually quickly so and coiled up around itself so early that it's kind of donked pos when a run like this Euro one decides to make the system more annular looking like that. Yes. It’s subtle but we really need the height field to try and “open up” south of New England. That trend started yesterday after most guidance had relegated the system pretty much a total non-event south of monadnocks from the tempest they showed 2-3 days prior…but it’s a precarious trend that could easily snap back. And it’s possible we may not even know the fate of that idea until very close to go-time. As both of us know, convection can wreak havoc on those subtle height field differences and cause the mid-level warm front to stay further south than modeled. Or the reverse might happen and it goes further north than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 The models have like a g-wave or maybe more like a lee mtn wave feature over wrn ORH county. Might get some weird winds out of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 14 minutes ago, DomNH said: Euro blows. Bunch of sleet to a crusty inch before it dries out. I’m planning on 1-3” of mush which I do not plan on even cleaning of the driveway. This could easily trend to all sleet and rain 20mi into NH & VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Where has pickles been? You would figure he would chase somewhere in the Monadnocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Too bad. Wolfie was really howling the south trends would rage on… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 For SNE…pick the tamest solution on any one model at any given time and there’s your forecast. Sloppy inch or two in the hills. Maybe some pellets for the low landers N of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 31 minutes ago, DomNH said: Euro blows. Bunch of sleet to a crusty inch before it dries out. Looks reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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