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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


Typhoon Tip
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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Clocks change we go to 8pm for 0z in the spring plus having the models come out 1hr later blows this time of year.

Correct. But climo data doesn’t change. Everything still runs 5z-5z (1am-1am EDT)

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So I only waste .30" of QPF as IP at the onset...according to the GFS.

1712203200-b26bLWsl6OY.png

This is total QPF by dawn...lets assume no accumulation during the day given inconsistent rates and solar irradiance...around a foot of cement minus the .3 wasted. Maybe even assume less than 10:1...say 10" or so.

1712228400-sMkOfrRGPDo.png

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is total QPF by dawn...lets assume no accumulation during the day given inconsistent rates and solar irradiance...around a foot of cement minus the .3 wasted. Maybe even assume less than 10:1...say 10" or so.

1712228400-sMkOfrRGPDo.png

Verbatim it's a textbook snow sounding from like 03z to 09z then it starts to rapidly dry out up top. Can't rule out 1''+/hr poundage during that window though. Razor thin.

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Sleet sucks.  Give me plain rain or snow

Huh? Sleet is a great pack builder and road disasterer. This time of year, kind of useless except for a day off. 

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1 minute ago, DomNH said:

Verbatim it's a textbook snow sounding from like 03z to 09z then it starts to rapidly dry out up top. Can't rule out 1''+/hr poundage during that window though. Razor thin.

Could be more....I did 2"/hr for severla hours during that time frame back in January. That coming in predawn helps, too.

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1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Don’t! Sleet and slot will make for a let down. Stay the course. 1-3” of slop/cement. 

It's not an isothermal paste bomb sounding though during the overnight hours once the H7 warmth washes out. It's pretty damn cold right about down to the surface.

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