Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I have to get one of those for my genny, that's a good idea, was going to make something but with limited time lately buying one of those solves the problem.

I got really creative with mine, It works great.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The NAM may be the way to go with this. It's doing a damn good job I think with the handling of the convection and evolution of the convection across the Ohio Valley. The NAM is quite scary today with the extent of the potential for severe weather and strong tornadoes. If the convection today becomes as robust as the NAM indicates that is good news for the interior and maybe for areas that are borderline currently. 

Then why does the NAM solution blow?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I got really creative with mine, It works great.

Was that a gas that you converted to propane? 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Was that a gas that you converted to propane? 

No, Its dual fuel, Runs on both, Just flip a switch to run on gas, Propane puts out 9500w and gas is 12500w, Electric start with a key fob.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Then why does the NAM solution blow?

Well I guess it depends on perspective/expectations  

Someone somewhere is going to get whacked pretty good, unfortunately it's probably a small amount of people and a very small percent of the forum so I can understand the excitement may not be high. 

But at least from a meteorological perspective, this is going to be a blast to watch unfold. Storms like this though are a phenomenal learning tool. I wish in school there was a class or course (maybe there is in grad school) then was dedicated to studying historical storms. Just watching how everything evolves, interacts, and how all the processes involved lead to the evolution...anyone interested in forecasting could substantially boost their knowledge from these systems. 

[Prismshine Productions]

NWS said 1-3 for me... oof

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

The precip rates will be impressive with the initial push Wednesday evening. But radar echoes will progressively weaken after 0-6z Thursday. Lots of “holes” developing in the echoes. 
 

For the big totals you’ll need to be stacking Wednesday, and that’s when temps are most marginal in eastern sections.

I think you pulled out an important aspect about this system's evolution on your previous post there.  It's something I also noticed a couple of days ago but I haven't been able to engage

Anyway, this system bottoms out aloft way west over Indiana/Ohio ... More typically, bigger kahuna event's parental trough bottoms out closer to the EC ..  over the Del Marva to NY Bite region of the M/A...  This one limps to the east coast over the next day.  Heights have in fact shallowed by some 6 to 10 dm in the core by the time it's over LI at 500 mb.

There's definitely a less than ideal mechanical timing with the total synoptic story of this thing. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The NAM may be the way to go with this. It's doing a damn good job I think with the handling of the convection and evolution of the convection across the Ohio Valley. The NAM is quite scary today with the extent of the potential for severe weather and strong tornadoes. If the convection today becomes as robust as the NAM indicates that is good news for the interior and maybe for areas that are borderline currently. 

 

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Well I guess it depends on perspective/expectations  

Someone somewhere is going to get whacked pretty good, unfortunately it's probably a small amount of people and a very small percent of the forum so I can understand the excitement may not be high. 

But at least from a meteorological perspective, this is going to be a blast to watch unfold. Storms like this though are a phenomenal learning tool. I wish in school there was a class or course (maybe there is in grad school) then was dedicated to studying historical storms. Just watching how everything evolves, interacts, and how all the processes involved lead to the evolution...anyone interested in forecasting could substantially boost their knowledge from these systems. 

You aren't making any sense....you are implying that the NAM has the best handle and it would be good news for those riding the line if it is right, but its the most northern and lame solution for those on the line....then when asked, you admit that it would only be good for the moose.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

You aren't making any sense....you are implying that the NAM has the best handle and it would be good news for those riding the line if it is right, but its the most northern and lame solution for those on the line....then when asked, you admit that it would only be good for the moose.

gotcha...should have been more clear. Meant it could be good for those riding the line as it at least keeps them in the game, it doesn't completely end hope (accounting for the possibility of more favorable ticks). 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

You aren't making any sense....you are implying that the NAM has the best handle and it would be good news for those riding the line if it is right, but its the most northern and lame solution for those on the line....then when asked, you admit that it would only be good for the moose.

He's hitting the high gravity scuba tanks early today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

He's hitting the high gravity scuba tanks early today.

I think he is just excited about the convection in the midwest and knows that no one in this thread would care (the severe thread is undoubtedly a morgue), so he's obfuscating.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think he is just excited about he convection in the midwest and knows that no one in this thread would care, so he's obfuscating.

His laptop has risen like the lord on easter.

[OceanStWx]

I'll say, there is really good lift in the snow growth zone around midnight Wednesday night. But the DGZ is also at like 500 mb. That always gives me pause.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

gotcha...should have been more clear. Meant it could be good for those riding the line as it at least keeps them in the game, it doesn't completely end hope (accounting for the possibility of more favorable ticks). 

But if the NAM has the best handle on the convection....and it is furthest north and warmest, why does the keep me in the game???

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I'll say, there is really good lift in the snow growth zone around midnight Wednesday night. But the DGZ is also at like 500 mb. That always gives me pause.

Where no one lives.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think he is just excited about the convection in the midwest and knows that no one in this thread would care (the severe thread is undoubtedly a morgue), so he's obfuscating.

The UCONN fans call into Felger and Mazz and do this....they know that no one here gives a rat's ass, so they try to inconspicuously find a way to link it to one of the major 4 sports teams and Felger roasts them

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

But if the NAM has the best handle on the convection....and it is furtheest north and warmest, why does the keep me in the game???

Because it's not the final solution. Certainly it doesn't bode well for borderline areas but subtle changes (in either direction) could be huge. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Because it's not the final solution. Certainly it doesn't bode well for borderline areas but subtle changes (in either direction) could be huge. 

Yea, to me relying on convection for a positive break when the model that supposedly has the best handle on it has the shittiest solution doesn't inspire much hope.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, to me relying on convection for a positive break when the model that supposedly has the best handle on it has the shittiest solution doesn't inspire much hope.

Fair

[tamarack]

GYX is bullish this morning, especially for the foothills along the Maine/NH boundary.

ocation	Snow Amount Potential	Chance of Seeing More Snow Than
	Low End Snowfall	Expected Snowfall	High End Snowfall	>=0.1"	>=1"	>=2"	>=4"	>=6"	>=8"	>=12"	>=18"
Portland, ME	0	3	14	87%	83%	77%	65%	53%	42%	23%	7%
Brunswick, ME	2	9	17	93%	91%	88%	80%	70%	58%	34%	10%
Cumberland Center, ME	4	11	20	95%	94%	91%	86%	78%	69%	47%	19%
Gray, ME	9	15	24	99%	99%	99%	97%	94%	90%	73%	38%
Bridgton, ME	13	19	27	100%	100%	100%	100%	99%	97%	90%	60%
Lewiston, ME	10	16	23	100%	100%	99%	99%	97%	93%	78%	40%
Augusta, ME	8	14	19	100%	99%	99%	97%	94%	87%	62%	18%
Waterville, ME	7	12	18	100%	99%	99%	96%	91%	81%	51%	12%
Fryeburg, ME	13	19	28	100%	100%	100%	100%	99%	98%	92%	66%
Rumford, ME	11	17	26	100%	100%	100%	99%	98%	95%	84%	52%
Farmington, ME	10	17	25	100%	99%	99%	98%	96%	92%	79%	46%
Rangeley, ME	8	14	23	99%	99%	99%	97%	93%	88%	70%	35%
Kingfield, ME	9	16	25	99%	99%	98%	97%	94%	90%	75%	44%
Eustis, ME	7	13	23	99%	99%	98%	95%	91%	85%	65%	32%
Jackman, ME	5	10	19	98%	97%	95%	90%	82%	71%	46%	16%
Skowhegan, ME	7	12	19	99%	99%	98%	95%	90%	82%	57%	18%
Belfast, ME	6	11	17	99%	99%	98%	94%	87%	75%	43%	9%
Unity, ME	7	12	18	99%	99%	98%	95%	90%	80%	50%	11%
Sanford, ME	7	10	21	100%	100%	99%	98%	94%	86%	61%	28%
Kennebunk, ME	0	4	14	86%	82%	76%	64%	52%	41%	22%	7%
Bath, ME	0	6	14	88%	84%	79%	68%	56%	43%	21%	5%
Wiscasset, ME	4	10	17	98%	96%	94%	89%	79%	67%	40%	11%
Rockland, ME	<1	8	13	89%	86%	81%	71%	58%	44%	19%	2%
Hope, ME	7	13	19	100%	99%	99%	96%	92%	84%	57%	16%
Manchester, NH	<1	2	13	91%	86%	79%	65%	52%	40%	21%	6%
Nashua, NH	0	<1	11	77%	71%	65%	52%	40%	30%	15%	4%
Concord, NH	3	4	14	100%	99%	97%	84%	67%	51%	26%	6%
New London, NH	9	12	19	100%	100%	100%	99%	97%	91%	62%	18%
Portsmouth, NH	0	<1	9	67%	60%	53%	39%	28%	18%	7%	1%
Hampton, NH	0	<1	9	66%	59%	52%	38%	26%	17%	6%	1%
Keene, NH	2	3	11	98%	94%	87%	68%	50%	35%	13%	2%
Rochester, NH	4	6	18	100%	99%	97%	90%	78%	65%	41%	16%
North Conway, NH	14	20	29	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99%	95%	71%
Laconia, NH	8	11	19	100%	100%	100%	100%	98%	91%	61%	20%
Claremont, NH	6	6	14	100%	100%	100%	99%	85%	64%	29%	5%
Lebanon, NH	6	7	14	100%	100%	100%	98%	86%	64%	27%	4%
Plymouth, NH	9	10	17	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	95%	55%	11%
Pittsburg, NH	4	7	14	99%	98%	96%	88%	73%	55%	23%	3%
Berlin, NH	9	15	22	100%	100%	100%	99%	97%	92%	74%	32%
Lancaster, NH	5	7	13	100%	100%	100%	96%	83%	61%	24%	2%

 

[Chrisrotary12]

Have to appreciate the NWS forecast for ASH: 

Low: 0

Expected < 1

High: 11

[CoastalWx]

HRRR is a peltfest. Tries to flip to snow, but gets a little slotty and sleety south of CON.

[UnitedWx]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The UCONN fans call into Felger and Mazz and do this....they know that no one here gives a rat's ass, so they try to inconspicuously find a way to link it to one of the major 4 sports teams and Felger roasts them

They're still on air?? Didn't even know the former Ms Nomar Garciapara (Mazz) was still around

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Have to appreciate the NWS forecast for ASH: 

Low: 0

Expected < 1

High: 11

Pretty good proxy for my area.

[CoastalWx]

This is such a bizarre system lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is a peltfest. Tries to flip to snow, but gets a little slotty and sleety south of CON.

Looks exactly like my First Call.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

This is such a bizarre system lol. 

Bizzarre is not the way to get it done in April.

[Prismshine Productions]

This is such a bizarre system lol. 

This storm is the textbook definition of Nowcasting, and also why a vast majority of us probably got into the hobby. Weird systems are fun systems

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Chrisrotary12]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

This storm is the textbook definition of Nowcasting, and also why a vast majority of us probably got into the hobby. Weird systems are fun systems

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

These are the type of systems where 9 times out of 10 you leave them underwhelmed because the models printed out 12”+ and you ended up with 3” because sleet, crappy rates, etc. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

These are the type of systems where 9 times out of 10 you leave them underwhelmed because the models printed out 12”+ and you ended up with 3” because sleet, crappy rates, etc. 

Exactly...."complicated" and "bizzarre" imply ambiguity and that doesn't bode well at a time of year when you need everything just about perfect. I think this is why you can't find a single pro, including the NWS, forecsting much of any accumulation anywhere in SNE/CNE.

Last March is fresh in my mind.