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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


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In the reverse jinx category, I am having my winter tires switched off of my daily driver on Monday (not my choice as a bent strut lead to two first-season Nokian snows getting 6" slashes in them since Wed night.  Good times)

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

That is a pretty damn near textbook evolution of the 500mb pattern and how H5 closes off and where it tracks. 

What may bode well too is there isn't a cluster cluck of shortwave mess. There's plenty of shortwave energy around but only a few distinct major pieces. 

If you're outside of the far interior and don't have elevation, dynamics are going to be critical but there is plenty of cold air available not far away. 

1046590719_9-kmECMWFGlobalPressureUnitedStates500hPaHeightAnom.gif.74b3863e2ce7579beccce1ec43cdd934.gif

Not shocked at all if this happens given the way the season has gone; we are about to turn the table spring warmth and big dog like this would usher in the  the pattern change.

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4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

nao.gefs.sprd2.png

 - This 3/29 0Z GEFS run’s mean NAO prediction of ~-1.75 for 3/31 is ~tied for the daily record low NAO for all of March (records go back to 1950)! The current March record is -1.75 (3/22/1980). It will also easily beat the current record low for March 31 of -1.3 (1975).

- This run is predicting the lowest NAO to be ~-1.95 to -2.00 (on 4/1). Should that verify closely, it would be a record low NAO (back to 1950) for the entire period covering Feb 15th through April 7th! It will also obliterate the current record low for April 1 of -1.2 (1975).

 - This run implies there will be daily record low NAOs March 31-April 2nd and possible daily record lows April 3rd-5th.

 

 Daily NAO back to 1950:

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.cdas.z500.19500101_current.csv

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11 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Not shocked at all if this happens given the way the season has gone; we are about to turn the table spring warmth and big dog like this would usher in the change the pattern change.

yeah they may certainly help propel us to some more consistent warmth...at least for a time anyways. I'm sure we're still going to have to deal with some crappy periods.

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We watch for now but certainly seems like there is potential for a juggernaut. Who is white and who is wet is very much unresolved.

Whatever happens, we want this to be a beast of low pressure to give folks in SNE a chance at one last accumulating snow

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6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We watch for now but certainly seems like there is potential for a juggernaut. Who is white and who is wet is very much unresolved.

Whatever happens, we want this to be a beast of low pressure to give folks in SNE a chance at one last accumulating snow

I will be wet. You can take that to the bank.

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