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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


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6 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

0z GFS big jump west with the primary

 

6 hours ago, dryslot said:

0z GFS looks very similar to the 18z run.

 

6 hours ago, George001 said:

Gfs looks more north unfortunately

3 post made in a 4 post string.

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I think Powderfreak has been writing the BTV discussion:https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

The biggest change as we enter into the
temporal realm of higher-resolution mesoscale and Convection-
Allowing Models (CAMs) time range has been a delayed onset of
winter precipitation as well as snowfall accumulation. While it
is tempting to use straight 10:1 SLRs or kuchera snowfall
amounts, the fact that we are two weeks after the start of
astronomical spring warrants a closer look at the thermal
profiles. While it is not impossible to accumulate snow at 34
degrees with mesoscale banding, the snow does have to come down
fast and furious in the valley locales. Besides the sun angle,
there is also the potential for a prolonged duration of sleet,
which will significantly cut down snowfall amounts in the
valleys. All things considered, a better proxy for this upcoming
late season winter storm is the positive snow depth change.
While far from perfect, it should provide better context on what
would most likely occur compared to low probability worst case
scenarios depicted by straight 10:1 or kuchera snowfall outputs.
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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think it will be as bad as you think. With a lot of sleet well north that will cut down snow amounts and the strong winds will prevent it from stacking before it flips to sleet. Would not be tossing the NAM.

The NAM is mostly snow here and in ME. lol

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just remember you guys were shocked last week when you to Maine had 3” of sleet and were thinking all snow. Keep it in back of mind 

I had a 1/2” of sleet in between 15” of snow while you were installing. Keep that in the back of your mind. 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just remember you guys were shocked last week when you to Maine had 3” of sleet and were thinking all snow. Keep it in back of mind 

Nam had 3.7" of snow here, We got 9.2"snow, 3" of sleet, It sucked.

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19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…that’s what ya get in April when big snow hits.  We’d be glad to take it off your hands, but unfortunately it doesn’t work like that. 

I could care less about padding stats.

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Problem with those GFS clown maps in this area is that most of what falls after 12z Thursday, if it’s even snow, probably isn’t accumulating much, especially on pavement. Heaviest rates are Wednesday night into Thursday which could bring a few sloppy inches but anything after that I’m skeptical. The snow depth maps aren’t all that impressive outside of the elevated areas. 

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2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Problem with those GFS clown maps in this area is that most of what falls after 12z Thursday, if it’s even snow, probably isn’t accumulating much, especially on pavement. Heaviest rates are Wednesday night into Thursday which could bring a few sloppy inches but anything after that I’m skeptical. The snow depth maps aren’t all that impressive outside of the elevated areas. 

East winds are ripping in eastern SNE up to PWM. SST’s are low 40’s in gulf of Maine. It’s not until after 12z Thurs that those areas gain a more northerly component and by then our ULL has really filled in and dynamics therefore significantly weaker.

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Euro looks like RA/IP to MHT Wednesday night into Thursday before flipping to some slop/non-accumulating crap during the day on Thursday. Idk…not that impressed for the lowlands south of like CON.

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The depth of the ULL peaks 6z Thursday near *Indiana*. It’s weakening from there on out.
 

I think what we’re missing more than anything with this is another UL vort to phase in as it makes closest approach to us. 
 

Decaying low isn’t gonna get us the consistent mod+ rates to stack in the marginal areas in SNE and SE NH.

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9 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Euro looks like RA/IP to MHT Wednesday night into Thursday before flipping to some slop/non-accumulating crap during the day on Thursday. Idk…not that impressed for the lowlands south of like CON.

So Dom, wondering if a waste to pre-salt fear of just washing away, wondering about surface temps around midnight Wednesday..... will continue to watch.

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