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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


Typhoon Tip
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7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

But with which parameters?  

NAM is the go to for mid level warmth surge in these set ups. 

I’ll second what someone else said. The NAM blew the mid level warmth surge forecast last storm. Had sleet/freezing rain up into the white mountains. In reality, only got as far north as knocking on the door of Plymouth. Was off by 25-50 miles up to game time.

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7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

But with which parameters?  

NAM is the go to for mid level warmth surge in these set ups. 

The weenie ones really. Within 48 hours the HRRR has been just about perfect in terms of forecasted snowfall over my head since the start of the year. It has been stable whereas the 3K NAM has spit out nonsense from run to run. 

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17 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

I’ll second what someone else said. The NAM blew the mid level warmth surge forecast last storm. Had sleet/freezing rain up into the white mountains. In reality, only got as far north as knocking on the door of Plymouth. Was off by 25-50 miles up to game time.

Of course, we know it missed that storm but it has done pretty well over the years, sniffing out the warm mid level surge,  

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love this time of year when I get to have one eye on the blog and one on the waiver wire.

Baseball season epitomizes spring and warmth to me.  It’s the major spring/summer sport.  NFL has fall, NBA/NHL in the winter, and MLB in late-spring/summer/early-fall… for some reason baseball season hits me hard as the arrival and anticipation of the warm season.

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19 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

I’ll second what someone else said. The NAM blew the mid level warmth surge forecast last storm. Had sleet/freezing rain up into the white mountains. In reality, only got as far north as knocking on the door of Plymouth. Was off by 25-50 miles up to game time.

The NAM busts on the 850-925 warmth more often than 700. I wasn’t surprised it blew the last event. 

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2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

once the low gets really going maybe we flip in the hills?  the warm layer looks just above freezing and might be able to mix it out?

Primary was way west too. I think it would have been a decent look beyond 48hrs

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