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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


Typhoon Tip
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9 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

I’m pretty hopeful for Southern Vermont on this one. Let it rip! No sleet! 
image.thumb.png.a01bc27981a52bf5dc050d53c6b59ae8.png

My concern in SVT is definitely sleet or mixed.  Their best QPF looks to happen on the front end with the strong ESE 850mb jet.  If some of the front end heavy precip falls as sleet, it lowers the ceiling quickly IMO.

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1 hour ago, Ski Patroller said:

Assuming that the forecast for the Presidential Range holds, any opinions on the expected quality of the snow? Any chance of dry powder? Thanks.

Given the recent weather and now feet of snow avy risk will be pretty high. 

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM def is the warmest and sometimes it’s right. But other times it can be on crack when it’s the warm outlier. I think it was pretty horrific in the March 23rd event up north. 
 

If the warmth is being caused by convection on the NAM, then it all depends on whether it sees that convection better than other guidance and that’s where the NAM can sometimes have an advantage. I did think it was strange that the RGEM wasn’t biting and instead has been on the colder side of guidance. 

Yeah, guess unfortunately we'll just have to wait and see

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1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

Given the recent weather and now feet of snow avy risk will be pretty high. 

I’d like to see the snowfall numbers for Washington and Katahdin this winter.  Not that much can be measured up high.

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5 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Given the recent weather and now feet of snow avy risk will be pretty high. 

Yeah huge recipe for big slides and increased visitation due to storm hype.  Add in eclipse on Monday… lots of people wandering around to summits.  Another avalanche event somewhere not impossible.

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1 minute ago, GCWarrior said:

I’d like to see the snowfall numbers for Washington and Katahdin this winter.  Not that much can be measured up high.

I wish more of it blew over to Wildcat. The Sherb has been loaded all year. 

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah huge recipe for big slides and increased visitation due to storm hype.  Add in eclipse on Monday… lots of people wandering around to summits.  Another avalanche event somewhere not impossible.

Oh jeez, I forgot about the eclipse. As if this year wasn't bad enough with people hiking up in sneakers and needing a rescue.  

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't expect that...just fun to gawk at and chat about.

I think you and I definitely see 3-5” of snow/sleet.  Pain in the ass hitting midweek but you know what, it’s the last hurrah of a shitty winter and I’ll take it.

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7 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Anecdotal (for my location), but he RAP and little RAP (HRRR) have absolutely wrecked the 12K and 3K NAM in terms of accuracy this winter.

But with which parameters?  

NAM is the go to for mid level warmth surge in these set ups. 

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think you and I definitely see 3-5” of snow/sleet.  Pain in the ass hitting midweek but you know what, it’s the last hurrah of a shitty winter and I’ll take it.

Yea. Just enjoy the anomalous event even if it isn’t an all out snower. 

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