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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That storm was colder. That had low-mid 20’s and 16” of powder here during midday 

82 was awesome here…18-20, plus big wind....true spring blizzard.  But This has some good cold to work with if this thing bombs in the right spot…I don’t think that will be an issue if that trough goes bunkers, and lites this bitch up in the right spot. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

82 was awesome here…18-20, plus big wind....true spring blizzard.  But This has some good cold to work with if this thing bombs in the right spot…I don’t think that will be an issue if that trough goes bunkers, and lites this bitch up in the right spot. 

I was referencing more in the way of total snow for that April.

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The whole evolution of this is an absolute beauty. With how anomalous the pattern and evolution is you can't just run to climo. Certainly the favor is going to be elevation/interior but it is cold in the low-levels. We'll see how this continues to evolve over the next few days. Lots of convection expected too within the warm sector so this may have a significant influence on exactly how the key features evolve. 

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Just now, MJO812 said:

This seems like a NNE threat unless the primary dies quicker .

If that pig -NAO gives us some help it’ll be a whole New England threat. We’ll see how this evolves over the weekend.  But the big players are there..can we have them dance is the question? 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

If that pig -NAO gives us some help it’ll be a whole New England threat. We’ll see how this evolves over the weekend.  But the big players are there..can we have them dance is the question? 

I agree

Let's all go out with a bang. My area will be tough but hey why not track it. 

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I agree

Let's all go out with a bang. My area will be tough but hey why not track it. 

Yup. The -NAO hasn’t done Jack for us the last two seasons….maybe this one time it can do it’s dirty work, and bring this bitch home this go around. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Yup. The -NAO hasn’t done Jack for us the just two seasons….maybe this one time it can do it’s dirty work, and bring this bitch home this go around. 

Yep it's all about the Pacific. We still have seen cutters with a negative NAO.

This storm might be similiar. 

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9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep it's all about the Pacific. We still have seen cutters with a negative NAO.

This storm might be similiar. 

I didn’t mean it that way…what I meant was we need the NAO to press now…that would help alot of us.  It hasn’t been much help when we’ve seen it the past two years…let it help us now. 

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

No clue.

LEW co-op shows 7.5" for mid-April 1933, and 25.5" for the 1982 blizzard.  Only CAR's 26.3" was greater, at least any I've found in Maine.  Farmington measured a mere 10", the lowest that I've found in Maine for the 1982 event.  I "measured" 17.0" in the Violette Settlement, the quotes because - what do you do when a major blizzard ends with 2" lower pack than pre-storm and most of the snow fell with temps low-mid teens?  Guesstimate is an understatement.  The drifts within 20 feet of the stake - on both sides - looked to be 5' or higher.  Fort Kent co-op recorded 12" but they seem to record snowfall by how much the pack has changed.

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That is a pretty damn near textbook evolution of the 500mb pattern and how H5 closes off and where it tracks. 

What may bode well too is there isn't a cluster cluck of shortwave mess. There's plenty of shortwave energy around but only a few distinct major pieces. 

If you're outside of the far interior and don't have elevation, dynamics are going to be critical but there is plenty of cold air available not far away. 

1046590719_9-kmECMWFGlobalPressureUnitedStates500hPaHeightAnom.gif.74b3863e2ce7579beccce1ec43cdd934.gif

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

That is a pretty damn near textbook evolution of the 500mb pattern and how H5 closes off and where it tracks. 

What may bode well too is there isn't a cluster cluck of shortwave mess. There's plenty of shortwave energy around but only a few distinct major pieces. 

If you're outside of the far interior and don't have elevation, dynamics are going to be critical but there is plenty of cold air available not far away. 

1046590719_9-kmECMWFGlobalPressureUnitedStates500hPaHeightAnom.gif.74b3863e2ce7579beccce1ec43cdd934.gif

"What may bode well too is there isn't a cluster cluck of shortwave mess"

For the first time in like forever.

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is a pretty damn near textbook evolution of the 500mb pattern and how H5 closes off and where it tracks. 

What may bode well too is there isn't a cluster cluck of shortwave mess. There's plenty of shortwave energy around but only a few distinct major pieces. 

If you're outside of the far interior and don't have elevation, dynamics are going to be critical but there is plenty of cold air available not far away. 

1046590719_9-kmECMWFGlobalPressureUnitedStates500hPaHeightAnom.gif.74b3863e2ce7579beccce1ec43cdd934.gif

A thing of beauty.

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