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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


Typhoon Tip
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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Steve ... I don't really care to get involved in that hair pullin' match but just for morbid curiosity ..

why do you care so much what Scott's attitude is?   LOL 

 

 

John it's just us busting balls. 

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5 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

WSW hoisted for my area

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
Issued by National Weather Service Caribou ME
351 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024

MEZ007-008-012-013-018>021-024>026-033-020800-
/O.NEW.KGYX.WS.A.0008.240403T1800Z-240405T1000Z/
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Southern Oxford-Southern
Franklin-Interior York-Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-
Kennebec-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Interior Cumberland
Highlands-
Including the cities of Gray, Bethel, North Windham, Oquossoc,
Windsor, Berwick, Gorham, Boothbay Harbor, Milton, Alna,
Farmington, Hanover, Alfred, Wilton, Bowdoinham, Sidney, Roxbury,
Goodwins Mills, Coburn Gore, Bridgton, New Vineyard, Greene,
Wiscasset, Phillips, South Portland, Limington, Newcastle,
Vassalboro, Norway, New Gloucester, Middle Dam, Fryeburg, Avon,
Harrison, Rangeley, China, Westbrook, Upton, Bristol, Bath,
Naples, Sabattus, Dresden, Davis, Newry, Lebanon, Temple, Buxton,
Kingfield, Waterville, Whitefield, Topsham, Damariscotta,
Yarmouth, Waldoboro, Turner, Sanford, Lewiston, Hollis, Livermore
Falls, Oxford, Portland, Bryant Pond, South Arm, Bowdoin,
Chesterville, Wales, Jay, Augusta, Phippsburg, Byron, Palermo,
Locke Mills, Minot, Cape Elizabeth, Bremen, Wilsons Mills,
Andover, New Sharon, Rumford, Brunswick, Auburn, and Arrowsic
351 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than
  18 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, and western Maine.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and
  blowing snow. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs
  may down power lines and could cause scattered to numerous power
  outages. Significant snowfall and periods of heavy snowfall rates
  will combine with low visibility to create very dangerous driving
  conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday
  evening and Thursday morning commutes. Gusty winds could bring
  down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&
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Just now, dryslot said:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
Issued by National Weather Service Caribou ME
351 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024

MEZ007-008-012-013-018>021-024>026-033-020800-
/O.NEW.KGYX.WS.A.0008.240403T1800Z-240405T1000Z/
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Southern Oxford-Southern
Franklin-Interior York-Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-
Kennebec-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Interior Cumberland
Highlands-
Including the cities of Gray, Bethel, North Windham, Oquossoc,
Windsor, Berwick, Gorham, Boothbay Harbor, Milton, Alna,
Farmington, Hanover, Alfred, Wilton, Bowdoinham, Sidney, Roxbury,
Goodwins Mills, Coburn Gore, Bridgton, New Vineyard, Greene,
Wiscasset, Phillips, South Portland, Limington, Newcastle,
Vassalboro, Norway, New Gloucester, Middle Dam, Fryeburg, Avon,
Harrison, Rangeley, China, Westbrook, Upton, Bristol, Bath,
Naples, Sabattus, Dresden, Davis, Newry, Lebanon, Temple, Buxton,
Kingfield, Waterville, Whitefield, Topsham, Damariscotta,
Yarmouth, Waldoboro, Turner, Sanford, Lewiston, Hollis, Livermore
Falls, Oxford, Portland, Bryant Pond, South Arm, Bowdoin,
Chesterville, Wales, Jay, Augusta, Phippsburg, Byron, Palermo,
Locke Mills, Minot, Cape Elizabeth, Bremen, Wilsons Mills,
Andover, New Sharon, Rumford, Brunswick, Auburn, and Arrowsic
351 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than
  18 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, and western Maine.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and
  blowing snow. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs
  may down power lines and could cause scattered to numerous power
  outages. Significant snowfall and periods of heavy snowfall rates
  will combine with low visibility to create very dangerous driving
  conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday
  evening and Thursday morning commutes. Gusty winds could bring
  down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

Might as well add BTV's

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Burlington VT
329 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024

NYZ029>031-034-VTZ003-006-008-010-016>021-020900-
/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0005.240403T1200Z-240405T1000Z/
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Orleans-Lamoille-Washington-Orange-Eastern Franklin-
Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-
Western Windsor-Eastern Windsor-
Including the cities of South Colton, Star Lake, Saranac Lake,
Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Ellenburg, Lake Placid, Newcomb, Derby,
Newport, Johnson, Stowe, Montpelier, Waitsfield, Bradford,
Randolph, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Richmond, Underhill, Bristol,
Ripton, East Wallingford, Killington, Bethel, Ludlow,
Springfield, and White River Junction
329 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible and mixed precipitation. Total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 14 inches possible and a hundredth of flat
  ice. Easterly winds could gust as high as 50 mph along west
  slopes of the Green Mountains.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New York and central, northeast,
  northwest and southern Vermont.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute and
  Thursday morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree
  branches. Scattered power outages are possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is likely to be wet in nature. The
  potential for snowloading may increase the risk for power
  outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/btv/winter
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Under a Gale Watch. Look dangerous.

 

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
328 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024

ANZ230-236-020830-
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0014.240403T1500Z-240404T1800Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
328 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...East winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and waves
  4 to 6 feet possible.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Boston Harbor. In
  Rhode Island coastal waters, Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.
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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

The increase in severe weather potential and quite a bit northward shift in severe weather potential for tomorrow is wrecking some havoc. This could be a sign for a stronger primary into western Michigan at least as that would favor the warm front lifting this far north to warrant these severe probs. It will be fun later today, tonight, and tomorrow to watch in real time how the convection is influencing the upper levels

image.thumb.png.0605d87a62cb379da442c20bdcc800ae.png

Centered over Ohio just a day before the 50th anniversary of the Xenia storm 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So obvious NAM has lost it completely 

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I dunno there is also going to be a lot of convection too. 

Well, That's the thing, Not sure how well its handling it but that does reek havoc on the models.

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Just now, dryslot said:

 

Well, That's the thing, Not sure how well its handling it but that does reek havoc on the models.

I mean globals in general don't handle it well. So that's something to think about. NAM and hi res models handle it better...but we know the NAM can be....well the NAM.  Not being negative, just something to think about. It was too warm in the last event too.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

 

Well, That's the thing, Not sure how well its handling it but that does reek havoc on the models.

The NAM has trended significantly robust with the convective tomorrow. Going to be interesting to see what impact that has, does it rob moisture? Does it influence main low/secondary development? This is going to be a heck of an evolution to watch

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

The NAM has trended significantly robust with the convective tomorrow. Going to be interesting to see what impact that has, does it rob moisture? Does it influence main low/secondary development? This is going to be a heck of an evolution to watch

Half the storm is starting out from a cluster of supercells lol. Good luck modeling that.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean globals in general don't handle it well. So that's something to think about. NAM and hi res models handle it better...but we know the NAM can be....well the NAM.  Not being negative, just something to think about. It was too warm in the last event too.

Still looks quite cold here as the secondary just starts to get going those H85 temps are going SE with it.

660b172fa72ce.png

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

The increase in severe weather potential and quite a bit northward shift in severe weather potential for tomorrow is wrecking some havoc. This could be a sign for a stronger primary into western Michigan at least as that would favor the warm front lifting this far north to warrant these severe probs. It will be fun later today, tonight, and tomorrow to watch in real time how the convection is influencing the upper levels

image.thumb.png.0605d87a62cb379da442c20bdcc800ae.png

Would more convection help or hurt our snow amounts? Sorry, first winter I've paid any attention to what actually affects the weather, this is loads more engaging than watching the TV forecasts :lol:

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The next layer i can see is 925mb, I cant see south of either of those

That ULL in the Midwest is a bit more WSW and weaker vs 12z. So despite initial warm push, lets see if secondary can get going and move towards the globals.

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