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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro looked like not much of anything in SNE. 

with a strong primary into the lakes and no cold air shouldn't be a surprise...people should stop looking at the garbage models like the CMC

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

with a strong primary into the lakes and no cold air shouldn't be a surprise...people should stop looking at the garbage models like the CMC

Careful, Steve will have none of this.

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Both the 12z GGEM and GFS show a significant snowfall (6"+) across most of southern New England, including the Greater Boston area. The 0z GGEM had shown March 31-April 1997-type amounts for Boston. More likely significant snowfall will be confined to interior sections, as well as higher elevations rather than the Greater Boston area, as readings in Boston are forecast to remain above freezing on both the GFS and GGEM. A somewhat colder air mass would change things.

Here's how Boston has fared for the 225 days during which measurable snow was reported and the low temperature was 33° or above.

The highest 1-day totals were:
33°F or above: 9.2", December 12, 1992
34°F or above: 4.0", February 23, 1919

The highest 2-day totals were:
33°F or above: 9.3", December 12-13, 1992
34°F or above: 4.0", February 23, 1919

A significant portion of the March 31-April 1997 snowstorm occurred with temperatures at or below freezing.

image.thumb.png.c272d9de9a63e22a48fb7e0c1a0f284b.png

 

 

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I mean, euro has been glue factory material on more than one storm this season. So as long as there are some half-respectable models disagreeing with it, it’s worth watching this threat. But it’s going to be tough regardless once you are south of the pike at low elevation. Even rt 2 crowd could still get skunked mostly if this primary goes too zonked in Michigan/Huron. 

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9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Both the 12z GGEM and GFS show a significant snowfall (6"+) across most of southern New England, including the Greater Boston area. The 0z GGEM had shown March 31-April 1997-type amounts for Boston. More likely significant snowfall will be confined to interior sections, as well as higher elevations rather than the Greater Boston area, as readings in Boston are forecast to remain above freezing on both the GFS and GGEM. A somewhat colder air mass would change things.

Here's how Boston has fared for the 225 days during which measurable snow was reported and the low temperature was 33° or above.

The highest 1-day totals were:
33°F or above: 9.2", December 12, 1992
34°F or above: 4.0", February 23, 1919

The highest 2-day totals were:
33°F or above: 9.3", December 12-13, 1992
34°F or above: 4.0", February 23, 1919

A significant portion of the March 31-April 1997 snowstorm occurred with temperatures at or below freezing.

image.thumb.png.c272d9de9a63e22a48fb7e0c1a0f284b.png

 

 

The GFS does? Still a little Easter whiskey in the glass?

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1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

"Euro isn't the king it was" is just fodder for when the Euro doesn't show what you want. If Euro were printing out the GGEM right now, y'all would love it.

I would give it more respect vs the Canadian showing it.

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would give it more respect vs the Canadian showing it.

And even if it showed an BECS a fair amount of folks would wave caution flags given its propensity to be way too aggressive/amped even at shorter leads.

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24 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

"Euro isn't the king it was" is just fodder for when the Euro doesn't show what you want. If Euro were printing out the GGEM right now, y'all would love it.

Not really Chris …the model is mediocre at best now.  Anybody who is a regular here knows this. If it was by itself and showing what the CMC is showing, I’d be skeptical of it for sure, cuz it’s a mere shadow of itself now. 

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

And even if it showed an BECS a fair amount of folks would wave caution flags given its propensity to be way too aggressive/amped even at shorter leads.

Oh yeah, I agree. There would def be more excitement if euro came on board but I guarantee almost nobody would be spiking footballs like they would 8-10 years ago if it showed that inside of 84 hours. 
 

Despite a little bit of a trend cooler at 12z overall in model guidance, my guess is 90% of SNE posters are expecting almost all rain and that is what the expectation should be. Exceptions are prob from Rays area over to N ORH county and Berkshires…and even those areas are likely a lot of mixed crap too. If we can get a decent move at 00z, then it might get more interesting, but we’re running out of time. 

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40 mph gusts plus a foot+ of 8:1 snow is concerning. Gonna be some outages if those winds verify. Probably some outages even without the winds with those ratios. Not really sure about chasing this to SR on Thursday - unfortunately the local hill is now closed midweek. Lifts go down at SR when a moose farts. 

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The increase in severe weather potential and quite a bit northward shift in severe weather potential for tomorrow is wrecking some havoc. This could be a sign for a stronger primary into western Michigan at least as that would favor the warm front lifting this far north to warrant these severe probs. It will be fun later today, tonight, and tomorrow to watch in real time how the convection is influencing the upper levels

image.thumb.png.0605d87a62cb379da442c20bdcc800ae.png

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Careful, Steve will have none of this.

KMA just because you waffle like Dennys no need to take it out on me. Its North it's South ots no North wait South again. Its a torch oh no colder again. Doubt anyone South of the Mohads see snow accumulation.  Sleet to Stowe. Sleet up t o Rt 2 its a 6 hr thing with you

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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

KMA just because you waffle like Dennys no need to take it out on me. Its North it's South ots no North wait South again. Its a torch oh no colder again. Doubt anyone South of the Mohads see snow accumulation.  Sleet to Stowe. Sleet up t o Rt 2 its a 6 hr thing with you

When did I waffle on a call? Yummy Gummies?

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24 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

40 mph gusts plus a foot+ of 8:1 snow is concerning. Gonna be some outages if those winds verify. Probably some outages even without the winds with those ratios. Not really sure about chasing this to SR on Thursday - unfortunately the local hill is now closed midweek. Lifts go down at SR when a moose farts. 

There's going to almost certainly be outages in my area. I will be getting more gas tomorrow.

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