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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


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Little leery of that -NAO perhaps showing up to a party where everyone's more than less gotten lost in cutter thinking.

We're in a kind of fun-house modeling era. NW should really be less favored.  Yet, our canonical storm is plagued with nuances to press the statistics... squeezing harder and harder NW into statistical domain that is lesser and lesser correlated with these western -NAOs.  Mm, some part of my inner voice keeps whispering red flag ...but I also acknowledge the lateness of the year.  Its taking on a bowling ball structure so early. 

We could actually correct some of this south closing in, while also weakening the total storm profile - both aspects would satisfy these oddities.

It's a bit ironic... the NAO handling has been the most consistently immutable presence on the charts going back over a week. The NAO is  traditionally a lower performance skill beyond short range, regardless of guidance source.   I guess even the runt on the team hits the game winning shot some time.

I tell you, the RGEM beat out all the guidance in the storm in early January.  Granted there is a big fat 0 analog to this, but in so far as behavior ... it just reminds us to be cautious.  

I've always been more impressed with the Canadian suite during stronger blocking eras. 

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3 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

This is laughable27cf813653e6cd40804dfe9488d24a00.jpg

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

As one of the Maine folks who got about 3" of sleet last weekend, my snowblower and I assure you it can happen. 

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9 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

As one of the Maine folks who got about 3" of sleet last weekend, my snowblower and I assure you it can happen. 

Worst i had ever seen actually, 9.2" snow, 3" of sleet, I would be much wiser this time around if its looking like that again and not remove the snow until its done.

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3 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Same here lol. Lesson learned. 

Driveway that normally takes an hr or so took 4hrs, It was like cement, Made the first pass down and thought i was doing real good until i figured out i only got about 1/2" off and i was riding on top of it...................... :facepalm:

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Driveway that normally takes an hr or so took 4hrs, It was like cement, Made the first pass down ad thought i was doing real good until i figured out i only got about 1/2" off and i was riding on top of it...................... :facepalm:

Yup! At least it will be pushing 50* afterwards. My concern now is the boat ramps, first bass tournament of the year is in two weeks in the Belgrade area.

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Just now, PowderBeard said:

Yup! At least it will be pushing 50* afterwards. My concern now is the boat ramps. My first bass tournament of the year is in two weeks. 

Ha, Well my plans were to be on the lake next weekend, My boats in Alfred at my brothers, He just unwrapped it but he had a branch off a 200 yr old maple fall all across his yard and missed the boat by 3' from that last storm where they got ice when we had the sleet, So he's cutting that up today so i wont go down to get it until next week now but i'm ready to fish.

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25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM would argue thunder sleet. That's funny.

I had that once when living in Peacham.  It was in the upper 20s.  It was rather annoying thinking what could have been,

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ha, Well my plans were to be on the lake next weekend, My boats in Alfred at my brothers, He just unwrapped it but he had a branch off a 200 yr old maple fall all across his yard and missed the boat by 3' from that last storm where they got ice when we had the sleet, So he's cutting that up today so i wont go down to get it until next week now but i'm ready to fish.

Ouch, that could have ruined the season. Ill be happy just getting mine loaded and fired up on muffs next weekend. It is currently in the garage buried under all about 20 Plano cases, 40 lbs of plastic baits,  and a couple dozen rods. Guess it is time to start the annual fishing thread.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not sure? I don’t recall that event.

maybe early jan 2020? Big ULL went south of us but in the dryslot there was thunderstorms with close to severe criteria hail in western ma / ct. IIRC it was sleeting at the time too. 

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1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

Ouch, that could have ruined the season. Ill be happy just getting mine loaded and fired up on muffs next weekend. It is currently in the garage buried under all about 20 Plano cases, 40 lbs of plastic baits,  and a couple dozen rods. Guess it is time to start the annual fishing thread.

Brothers in the marine repair business, Ours is all ready to go, Both motors have been summarized.

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Looking at the NWS point and click for NNE, it looks like my area is either the jackpot or the worst place to be, depending on how you look at it.  My problem is that I help lead one of 96 robotics teams of high school students that are going to be loading into the Big E on Wednesday afternoon. The competition runs through Saturday.

The joy we have: heavy trailers full of equipment being driven through Wednesday's snow / sleet fest and then unloaded in Wednesday's rain in MA while our power lines come down at home. We all received the email that we'd qualified for this yesterday and today at 5pm is the registration payment deadline.

So while it's truly an IMBY question, how bad is it going to be for the Monadnocks?

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Just now, tamarack said:

The spreads in the GYX snowfall predictions are huge - 90%/expected/10% for Farmington are 4/8/20.  MHT <1/4/13.  Lots of uncertainty still.

Yes, And i mentioned that earlier when i posted that map and reading the AFD, I gathered the same.

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44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM would argue thunder sleet. That's funny.

The NAM is quite unstable in the mid-levels. Some of the most robust elevated instability I recall seeing around these parts with wintry precipitation potential. Reminds me a bit of some of those setups you see in the Great Plains where they get thunder sleet/freezing rain.

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39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My record is 8" snow/sleet combo in VD Day 2007.

Wow!  I've never seen more than 3", twice in NNJ.  The 2nd time was in Jan 1964 and it was topped by 1/2" ZR.  Kids were skating in their back yards on the impenetrable stuff.

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12 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The spreads in the GYX snowfall predictions are huge - 90%/expected/10% for Farmington are 4/8/20.  MHT <1/4/13.  Lots of uncertainty still.

For Jaffrey, it's 4/12/16 so we likely to be in the power outage world again.

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