RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Tips JMA to save the day for SoP… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Tips JMA to save the day for SoP… That’s the 12z run yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 How are the 6z EPS ensembles? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there will be a lot of white rain lingering as the ULL takes its time to move out but I don’t expect much of that stuff to stick. Maybe briefly in heavier snow showers. The key for siggy accums is getting into the meat of the CCB on the coastal. And nothing really has that here . I’m not ruling out a wet inch of slop on mulch and grass or something. But what good is that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s the 12z run yesterday. It was ... but the point was that it hasn't deviated. I hunch that it'll be the same at 12z today - but we'll see. I don't particularly trust that guidance source ( lol ). It is what it is. I really just posted that as a tongue-in-cheeker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 23 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I'm hoping.. no power for days? That’s what everyone here that’s into extreme weather is here for . Extreme weather that equates to damage . There’s absolutely nothing wrong with that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 How are the 6z EPS ensembles?Tick north tick lessSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How are the 6z EPS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 I think ideally for non-ORH hills/Berks interior SNE (and I’ll loosely define this as 495 belt from Ray right down to near Kevin on 84 NE of HFD) we want to see that primary die a little quicker instead of getting wrapped up into the thumb of Michigan. If you can can keep it more toward CLE instead then it’s balls to wall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 I'm surprised nobody posted it, but this was the end of the 6z NAM (12z is running now, out to hr15 so gonna be a bit)Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's interesting ...that's not the same as the 06z source I've seen, that places that cluster a little E of that toward the arm of the Cape. This above suggests the low probably stalling for 6 hrs over Providence. ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Lots of amped members there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I think ideally for non-ORH hills/Berks interior SNE (and I’ll loosely define this as 495 belt from Ray right down to near Kevin on 84 NE of HFD) we want to see that primary die a little quicker instead of getting wrapped up into the thumb of Michigan. If you can can keep it more toward CLE instead then it’s balls to wall. Gfs has been wrapping the primary further nw into MI each run. NoP folks need that to cease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 6z EPS looks like it has a lot of members like 00z op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think ideally for non-ORH hills/Berks interior SNE (and I’ll loosely define this as 495 belt from Ray right down to near Kevin on 84 NE of HFD) we want to see that primary die a little quicker instead of getting wrapped up into the thumb of Michigan. If you can can keep it more toward CLE instead then it’s balls to wall. and I'll add ... the position 'over the thumb' is stressing this type of -NAO correlation, too. I'm not sure if seasonality may somehow transitively allow that? It's stressing but I suppose not impossible. I kind of like mid range 'path of least resistance' to correct things. The "correction vector" is pointing toward less penetration to those latitudes, though. The other thing that makes that odd is that this block, albeit in the process of breaking down as this event is unfolding ...is retrograding S-SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Wow, LE of what's that....a 165knot jet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think ideally for non-ORH hills/Berks interior SNE (and I’ll loosely define this as 495 belt from Ray right down to near Kevin on 84 NE of HFD) we want to see that primary die a little quicker instead of getting wrapped up into the thumb of Michigan. If you can can keep it more toward CLE instead then it’s balls to wall. This 50-100 mile shift south we need of the coastal is plenty doable at 3-4 day lead as we know…that’s a small shift at this range. Can we do it. Let’s go NAO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs has been wrapping the primary further nw into MI each run. NoP folks need that to cease. I think the GFS is wrong on this..but that’s just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: This 50-100 mile shift south we need of the coastal is plenty doable at 3-4 day lead as we know…that’s a small shift at this range. Can we do it. Let’s go NAO. Yep we have seen bigger shifts even inside of 2 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 37 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I know Dave is really hoping for that… Can’t even ski Wachusett. Today is their last day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think ideally for non-ORH hills/Berks interior SNE (and I’ll loosely define this as 495 belt from Ray right down to near Kevin on 84 NE of HFD) we want to see that primary die a little quicker instead of getting wrapped up into the thumb of Michigan. If you can can keep it more toward CLE instead then it’s balls to wall. Yes exactly and the last few runs have trended in the wrong direction with stronger primary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I think the GFS is wrong on this..but that’s just me. I am not buying the GFS. But not sold on the Euro either. And def not the CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yes exactly and the last few runs have trended in the wrong direction with stronger primary Longer that primary holds on the more it seems able to flood BL warmth in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Longer that primary holds on the more it seems able to flood BL warmth in too. Yup and the more hugged the coastal becomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Track wise 12z nam is nice, but it needs to get much more meaty with the CCB. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Track wise 12z nam is nice, but it needs to get much more meaty with the CCB. Not even to bomb level yet, picture that run out 24 hrs with a 975 at the BM. Getting more interesting by the day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not even to bomb level yet, picture that run out 24 hrs with a 975 at the BM. Getting more interesting by the day. Yup…surprises are coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Track wise 12z nam is nice, but it needs to get much more meaty with the CCB. CCB prob wouldn’t get cranking for another few frames as the ULL is still back west. It’s quite cold though so NAM would prob work in a lot of spots even if 10 to 1 is overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 NAM is actually sub-freezing over high terrain of SNE and 925s are between -3 and -4 so you’d get good accumulations that way. But you want to see more global models trend that cold before you consider it realistically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Lots of amped members there. But what about the messenger shuffle? We're still pretty far out TBH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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