RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sold on that. Theoretically at d5 no you can’t lock that in, especially as a forecaster, but there is a very high ceiling with a high probability of 18+ elevated CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Just now, powderfreak said: Is that the same as positive depth change? That’s just snow depth. I feel like it almost shows what would fall and compact at 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 I still got a good feeling here still want to wait a day or 2 though before getting excited for it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Your elevation will help. I on the other hand need lots of help. And not just this storm lol. I’m planning on the storm bombing NE of my latitude . If that happens I have to hope the five finger discount reach around happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Go back to the pre-clown map era when you have marginal temp profile….esp under 800-1000 feet 1. Look for 6 hourly QPF greater than 0.50”…preferably 0.75”+. The heavier the better, but 0.25 or 0.37 over 6 hours isn’t gonna cut it. That’s mostly white rain. 2. Look at 925 temps. Typically want -2ish or colder to avoid total slop though -1 will work if youre pounding with good snow growth aloft. If you aren’t satisfying both of those criteria, then you’re looking at something significantly under 10:1 ratios. Nocturnal timing for max precip can help a bit too, but it’s less significant than the two factors above. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s just snow depth. I feel like it almost shows what would fall and compact at 10:1. To be honest it doesn’t matter lol. Just think it’s a marginal air mass, the 10:1 maps are over-selling it. In some cases pretty solidly over-selling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/03/major-spring-storm-to-supply.html First Call tomorrow night. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 What percentage would you guys say this has of developing into a historic blizzard for all of eastern mass, similar to April 1997, March 2013, March 2018 etc? I don’t think it is likely at all (I’m leaning towards rain here) but do believe that upside exists if everything breaks right due to the strength of the low on the models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/03/major-spring-storm-to-supply.html First Call tomorrow night. Just great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 5 minutes ago, George001 said: What percentage would you guys say this has of developing into a historic blizzard for all of eastern mass, similar to April 1997, March 2013, March 2018 etc? I don’t think it is likely at all (I’m leaning towards rain here) but do believe that upside exists if everything breaks right due to the strength of the low on the models. % 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 22 minutes ago, powderfreak said: To be honest it doesn’t matter lol. Just think it’s a marginal air mass, the 10:1 maps are over-selling it. In some cases pretty solidly over-selling it. The last two winters here should be a major reminder of that lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m planning on the storm bombing NE of my latitude . If that happens I have to hope the five finger discount reach around happens You must not get enough at home.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Gfs is a tick north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Just now, dryslot said: Pounded 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Go back to the pre-clown map era when you have marginal temp profile….esp under 800-1000 feet 1. Look for 6 hourly QPF greater than 0.50”…preferably 0.75”+. The heavier the better, but 0.25 or 0.37 over 6 hours isn’t gonna cut it. That’s mostly white rain. 2. Look at 925 temps. Typically want -2ish or colder to avoid total slop though -1 will work if youre pounding with good snow growth aloft. If you aren’t satisfying both of those criteria, then you’re looking at something significantly under 10:1 ratios. Nocturnal timing for max precip can help a bit too, but it’s less significant than the two factors above. Agree completely with your caveats; I think you can survive the marginally cold at 925 with modest rates in mid-winter, but not in early April... Some of the past monsters being thrown around either excessive dynamics or much colder profiles. And 1982 had both with pure Arctic cold... I will get more interested if the consolation process appears likely to be perfect... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Pounded 3 feet for Pinkham Notch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Similar to last weekends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 That’s a big event for a lot of NNE mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 That’s a big event for a lot of NNE mtns.YepSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 that's one ugly gfs run, wow. concerns 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That’s a big event for a lot of NNE mtns. 2-3' at elevation in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 19 minutes ago, dryslot said: Similar to last weekends At this point, unless we can trend a more dynamic system a little more south, I am rooting for plain rain here, rather than an inch or two of glop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Disjointed crap still on 18z GFS until it gets W Maine/White mountains. Not consolidated like some other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 At this point, unless we can trend a more dynamic system a little more south, I am rooting for plain rain here, rather than an inch or two of glop. You are literally a 20 minute drive from me, why settle for rain? Besides, GEFS still gives you 10"Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Everyone wants to keep bringing up 04/01/97 and 04/06/82, and yeah 1996-97 was a ratter until April 1st just like this season but this one just doesn't have the same dynamics as that one did, and April 1982 had a very cold airmass to work with. In terms of overall synoptics this one actually looks more similar to 03/29/70, but even that one had better dynamics to work with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 3 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: Everyone wants to keep bringing up 04/01/97 and 04/06/82, and yeah 1996-97 was a ratter until April 1st just like this season but this one just doesn't have the same dynamics as that one did, and April 1982 had a very cold airmass to work with. In terms of overall synoptics this one actually looks more similar to 03/29/70, but even that one had better dynamics to work with. The more consolidated solutions have incredible dynamics. But something like the GFS is less intriguing until you are into high terrain of NNE. You have the low trying to escape northeast too quickly early before it finally gets tugged back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Is that the same as positive depth change? Depth at that time . There is no snow south of the Dendy area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 10 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: Everyone wants to keep bringing up 04/01/97 and 04/06/82, and yeah 1996-97 was a ratter until April 1st just like this season but this one just doesn't have the same dynamics as that one did, and April 1982 had a very cold airmass to work with. In terms of overall synoptics this one actually looks more similar to 03/29/70, but even that one had better dynamics to work with. This is a bomb. Zero doubt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 I will decide by tomorrow evening if I'm going to drive up to Jackson for this. Looks like it might be a good spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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