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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


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14 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Been right at 40 years, the last time I drove to BOS.  They write tickets now, but I brought about 4 inches of snow from Saratoga Springs to Boston in 1984 on my 1976 Chrysler Cordoba.  I don't see that many metro Boston posters, perhaps because it has been seasons of consecutive disappointment.

 

The NNE posters remind me of something I heard when I lived in the NYC area, snow in the Big Cities was good for ski country, it got some people thinking about skiing.  It'll be almost another hour before 2m temps from Euro are available on the free sites.  I myself am very curious about surface temps inside Route 128 and down to Marshfield.

Did your Cordoba have Corinthian leather?

https://youtu.be/tfKHBB4vt4c

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Individual EPS. You can see how slow-moving it is. There’s also still some spread with some members trying to escape the low to the northeast before it gets captured. 
 

 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Individual EPS. You can see how slow-moving it is. There’s also still some spread with some members trying to escape the low to the northeast before it gets captured. 
 

 

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Some heavy hitters in there

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Hopefully it doesn't end up at the glue factory.

Always a fear this winter. At least there’s pretty good agreement right now compared to other guidance plus that’s a pig NAO block that develops which should help hold the goalposts a little firmer. The GFS suite is kind of the outlier right now being more disjointed (though some of the GEFS did look like the foreign models, just not as many of them). 
 

If this was 3 weeks earlier, we’d have enough wiggle room that you can probably honk away right now. But this is gonna need to get closer before having any confidence. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Always a fear this winter. At least there’s pretty good agreement right now compared to other guidance plus that’s a pig NAO block that develops which should help hold the goalposts a little firmer. The GFS suite is kind of the outlier right now being more disjointed (though some of the GEFS did look like the foreign models, just not as many of them). 
 

If this was 3 weeks earlier, we’d have enough wiggle room that you can probably honk away right now. But this is gonna need to get closer before having any confidence. 

I'm probably not going to escape it unless it went off the NJ coast ENE up here, I am looking for this to tic a bit colder here rather then a wet blue bomb similar to last weekend's event.

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43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Don't buy it as depicted.  Maybe typical April quick melt , but in storm??? . Bufkit will be better like the two footer you had

To me it depends on rates.  12-15” of 10:1 snow maps over 36-48 hours of “periods of snow” probably verifies as 4-6 inches on the ground when it ends.

If it’s 12-15” in 12-18 hours, it’s probably closer to that 10-12” on ground.

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

To me it depends on rates.  12-15” of 10:1 snow maps over 36-48 hours of “periods of snow” probably verifies as 4-6 inches on the ground when it ends.

If it’s 12-15” in 12-18 hours, it’s probably closer to that 10-12” on ground.

This is why consolidation matters. Keeping the system disjointed is going to make sure there’s a much stronger elevation gradient and also just lower rates in general. Even OP Euro wasn’t quite there despite the decent CCB late in the game but the EPS was better. 

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