Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

36.9/28  That roaring sound is starting in the forest trees.  Davis high gust last hour  E 27

Might get interesting there on the west side of the ridge. Maybe we can get a 2017 blowdown in Moultonboro.

[butterfish55]

Pelting sleet in Mansfield. Unexpected

[George001]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We tried desperately to tell em yesterday . Over and over and six ways to Sunday and they insisted on all heavy wet snow , and tossed the NAM. 

Yep, never ever toss the NAM in these setups. That’s one of the things it’s very good it, sniffing out mid level warm layers. 

[dryslot]

The Nam sucked ass in the 3/23 storm up here and its already wrong in areas that are pelting now that showed rain..............lol

[CoastalWx]

H7 will continue to warm further N and NE today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Maybe when it’s 34F glop. 

I'll take them over maps that count sleet as snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Will is gone...all you need to know.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Not in napril.

I would be if my local ski hill was still open...but they closed this past weekend

[dryslot]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would be if my local ski hill was still open...but they closed this past weekend

If i was still riding i would be very giddy about another couple trips, But that shipped sailed in late march.

[Bryan63]

Still having sleet coming down intermittently.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The Nam sucked ass in the 3/23 storm up here and its already wrong in areas that are pelting now that showed rain..............lol

This is why the P-type maps can suck too and not great to use. Given how cold it is aloft, combined with some dry air, it isn't surprising many are seeing sleet or sleet mixing in. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is why the P-type maps can suck too and not great to use. Given how cold it is aloft, combined with some dry air, it isn't surprising many are seeing sleet or sleet mixing in. 

You have to look at soundings to get a clearer picture of whats going on aloft, This is a good candidate for a nowcasting event.

[LSC97wxnut]

After seeing the reports, I had to check myself here in Needham. There are a few pellets mixed in.

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, Bryan63 said:

Must be pretty cold aloft, have sleet falling. Currently 43.

It's more that it is dry aloft in the mid levels. Wet bulb cooling the column is doing the bulk of the work there even with torchy surface temps.

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m going to guess soil temps are factored into those depth maps. 4”/8” here is 40F and I tend to run cool locally. So the model probably isn’t liking snow falling onto 40-50F soils. 

Surprised there haven't been a ton of AFDs crapping on the event because of warm ground. 

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might get interesting there on the west side of the ridge. Maybe we can get a 2017 blowdown in Moultonboro.

That was a great WTF event.

[Damage In Tolland]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might get interesting there on the west side of the ridge. Maybe we can get a 2017 blowdown in Moultonboro.

May happen here too

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

May happen here too

More west of you.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

More west of you.

The valley ? They don’t do well on east wind . They do well on NW or SW winds 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The valley ? They don’t do well on east wind . They do well on NW or SW winds 

Downslope

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That was a great WTF event.

Are we talking the Mar snow event? I gusted big in that one with downslope assist. 50+

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Are we talking the Mar snow event? I gusted big in that one with downslope assist. 50+

Yep. A big bag of WTF in that one. 

[CoastalWx]

FWIW HRRR has trended colder overall since 6z. Most noticeable borderline areas and just over the MA/NH/VT border.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. A big bag of WTF in that one. 

I’d argue those were my strongest prolonged winds since moving here. Coop door almost blew off. Blizzard conditions with the lgt/mod snow and BLSN. 

[Ginx snewx]

What's the track record of the  experimental Rapid Refresh. That biatich is cold

[FXWX]

Sleeting in Burlington, CT

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I’d argue those were my strongest prolonged winds since moving here. Coop door almost blew off. Blizzard conditions with the lgt/mod snow and BLSN. 

I still can't wrap my head around that. Maybe Legro can man up and do a case study. I mean I understand on a high level, but that area off rt 109 near Castle in the Clouds was leveled. There is a golf course there that was gone.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We tried desperately to tell em yesterday . Over and over and six ways to Sunday and they insisted on all heavy wet snow , and tossed the NAM. 

You were pumping the NAM when it tracked to Montreal and said it would never come south 

[weathafella]

Sleeting moderately here.

[amarshall]

Pinging duxbury

[OceanStWx]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Are we talking the Mar snow event? I gusted big in that one with downslope assist. 50+

 

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. A big bag of WTF in that one. 

Yeah, when the reports started coming in of a possible microburst...

But we did dig into the mesonets nearby and you could see the localized strong gusts. IIRC the inversion height was perfect for ranges like the Ossipees. 

[Patfan1987]

Sleet in Dorchester. Wasn’t expecting that