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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


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  On 4/3/2024 at 2:10 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

We tried desperately to tell em yesterday . Over and over and six ways to Sunday and they insisted on all heavy wet snow , and tossed the NAM. 

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Yep, never ever toss the NAM in these setups. That’s one of the things it’s very good it, sniffing out mid level warm layers. 

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  On 4/3/2024 at 2:56 PM, dryslot said:

The Nam sucked ass in the 3/23 storm up here and its already wrong in areas that are pelting now that showed rain..............lol

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This is why the P-type maps can suck too and not great to use. Given how cold it is aloft, combined with some dry air, it isn't surprising many are seeing sleet or sleet mixing in. 

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  On 4/3/2024 at 3:04 PM, weatherwiz said:

This is why the P-type maps can suck too and not great to use. Given how cold it is aloft, combined with some dry air, it isn't surprising many are seeing sleet or sleet mixing in. 

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You have to look at soundings to get a clearer picture of whats going on aloft, This is a good candidate for a nowcasting event.

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  On 4/3/2024 at 1:53 PM, Bryan63 said:

Must be pretty cold aloft, have sleet falling. Currently 43.

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It's more that it is dry aloft in the mid levels. Wet bulb cooling the column is doing the bulk of the work there even with torchy surface temps.

  On 4/3/2024 at 2:41 PM, dendrite said:

I’m going to guess soil temps are factored into those depth maps. 4”/8” here is 40F and I tend to run cool locally. So the model probably isn’t liking snow falling onto 40-50F soils. 

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Surprised there haven't been a ton of AFDs crapping on the event because of warm ground. 

  On 4/3/2024 at 2:46 PM, CoastalWx said:

Might get interesting there on the west side of the ridge. Maybe we can get a 2017 blowdown in Moultonboro.

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That was a great WTF event.

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  On 4/3/2024 at 3:30 PM, dendrite said:

I’d argue those were my strongest prolonged winds since moving here. Coop door almost blew off. Blizzard conditions with the lgt/mod snow and BLSN. 

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I still can't wrap my head around that. Maybe Legro can man up and do a case study. I mean I understand on a high level, but that area off rt 109 near Castle in the Clouds was leveled. There is a golf course there that was gone.

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  On 4/3/2024 at 3:26 PM, dendrite said:

Are we talking the Mar snow event? I gusted big in that one with downslope assist. 50+

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  On 4/3/2024 at 3:27 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yep. A big bag of WTF in that one. 

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Yeah, when the reports started coming in of a possible microburst...

But we did dig into the mesonets nearby and you could see the localized strong gusts. IIRC the inversion height was perfect for ranges like the Ossipees. 

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