Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:09 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The colder solutions recently have had the primary maxing out over Lake Michigan or far western Michigan instead of the thumb of Michigan or Lake Huron. That is enough to make a difference and allow the coastal to consolidate a bit better without primary interference. 
 

Note that the 12z NAM was a “thumb of Michigan/Lake Huron” solution unlike the RGEM/GFS

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Yeah... Kevin was mentioning this earlier this morning

 

  

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:59 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... Kevin was mentioning this earlier this morning

 

  

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Thanks for noticing 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/1/2024 at 5:01 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Thanks for noticing 

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Good observation 

[Cyclone-68]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:31 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

I hate this event in every way possible

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This winter has been the equivalent of putting sharp toothpicks under fingernails 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:59 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... Kevin was mentioning this earlier this morning

 

  

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I honestly didn’t read that far back. Was busy with work. 
 

But it’s been a theme I’ve noticed since last night’s runs. We already knew a primary into Huron was bad for snow south of NNE but we were kind of hoping it would be over CLE instead previously…but that isn’t happening…however, an alternative version of getting more snow in SNE (or at least down into the SNE/CNE gray area) is to have the primary nuke out much further west over Lake Michigan. 

[ineedsnow]

12Z CMC looks good

[ineedsnow]

Looks good for.most of SNE actually

[ma blizzard]

  On 4/1/2024 at 5:06 PM, ineedsnow said:

12Z CMC looks good

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SNE getting crushed at 78h

[DavisStraight]

  On 4/1/2024 at 5:06 PM, ineedsnow said:

12Z CMC looks good

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You're in the game, I'm out, too far south.

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 4/1/2024 at 5:06 PM, ineedsnow said:

12Z CMC looks good

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When hasn't it looked good.

If this pos model scores a coup, I will switch to Molsen Golden for all of April

[ma blizzard]

  On 4/1/2024 at 5:08 PM, DavisStraight said:

You're in the game, I'm out, too far south.

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It might be a tough pull, but we have a chance if any reliable guidance starts coming in like the CMC / RGEM

[ORH_wxman]

Canadian bombs the primary over southern Lake Michigan. SNE will have a shot if that happens. 

[weatherwiz]

  On 4/1/2024 at 5:11 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Canadian bombs the primary over southern Lake Michigan. SNE will have a shot if that happens. 

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I hardly ever look at the Canadian but this would be pretty sweet if that verified. That would be a nuking for some

[Weathernoob335]

Not really seeing a scenario where my region doesnt score anymore, damn 

[ariof]

  On 4/1/2024 at 5:08 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

When hasn't it looked good.

If this pos model scores a coup, I will switch to Molsen Golden for all of April

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Was it the CMC that had sniffed out the whiff for basically all of Mass for the Valentine's Day storm?

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 4/1/2024 at 5:15 PM, ariof said:

Was it the CMC that had sniffed out the whiff for basically all of Mass for the Valentine's Day storm?

It was

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 4/1/2024 at 5:15 PM, ariof said:

Was it the CMC that had sniffed out the whiff for basically all of Mass for the Valentine's Day storm?

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UK did

[dryslot]

  On 4/1/2024 at 5:15 PM, weatherwiz said:

I hardly ever look at the Canadian but this would be pretty sweet if that verified. That would be a nuking for some

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Its probably not a bad thing.

[ariof]

  On 4/1/2024 at 5:16 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

It was

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

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I had forgotten after getting some ECT with my toaster in the bathtub.

[Weathernoob335]

Yeah that time was ukie

[George001]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:52 PM, WinterWolf said:

Start of the south trend at 12z….by 18z everybody will be high fiving…

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It would be nice if we get the stronger lows like Fridays runs too.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 4/1/2024 at 5:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

UK did

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Yeah both GGEM and Ukie were the flattest in that one. Ukie may have been a touch flatter but both were ugly. 

[Chrisrotary12]

[Weathernoob335]

Waiting on euro I guess 

[dryslot]

12z Euro pretty similar to the 06z run taking a quick look.

[ORH_wxman]

Not much change on euro. Maybe slightly better with primary as it drifts SE from Lake Michigan instead of east into Lake Huron. But gonna need more help than that though. 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Yeah climo is working against us this time of year in SNE. Very rare for us to score in the coastal plain.

[MJO812]

Huge Blizzard for DC northward next week. Get ready. 

I'm buying a shovel and salt 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 4/1/2024 at 5:22 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah both GGEM and Ukie were the flattest in that one. Ukie may have been a touch flatter but both were ugly. 

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UK def did it first...I remember the GEM originally had a huge phased blizzard in Maine, then it was the first to jump in with the UK well south.

[CoastalWx]

Canadian H5 is funny. It's nice and concentric with the ULL in the Midwest and then it's like the PV lobe NE of Maine is the brick that's thrown into a washer machine on spin cycle. Gets all wonky and shoots out a sharp s/w that rips it ENE at hr 84.