Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th

[dryslot]

BECS

[MaineJayhawk]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:04 PM, dryslot said:

I was waiting to post the clown map but it was still snowing @ 03z sunday...............

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I doubt anything that falls after sunrise Friday is snow - pretty light rates - but before that is certainly a hoot

[dryslot]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:07 PM, MaineJayhawk said:

I doubt anything that falls after sunrise Friday is snow - pretty light rates - but before that is certainly a hoot

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Yeah, The higher sun angle above prevents it this time of year but there is a pounding in there before hand.

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 4/1/2024 at 2:47 PM, Weathernoob335 said:

Hope it gets even warmer and we get plain rain

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That was my hope

[ORH_wxman]

The colder solutions recently have had the primary maxing out over Lake Michigan or far western Michigan instead of the thumb of Michigan or Lake Huron. That is enough to make a difference and allow the coastal to consolidate a bit better without primary interference. 
 

Note that the 12z NAM was a “thumb of Michigan/Lake Huron” solution unlike the RGEM/GFS

[CoastalWx]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:09 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The colder solutions recently have had the primary maxing out over Lake Michigan or far western Michigan instead of the thumb of Michigan or Lake Huron. That is enough to make a difference and allow the coastal to consolidate a bit better without primary interference. 
 

Note that the 12z NAM was a “thumb of Michigan/Lake Huron” solution unlike the RGEM/GFS

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I noticed that earlier when Kevin made that comment. I still don't have a good feel for SNE...maybe nrn ORH could get lucky I guess...perhaps to Ray. It's too bad we lost the synoptic look for a biggie like some of the runs had 2 days ago with the mid levels under us.

[ineedsnow]

Some of the 12z GEFS. Members are wild

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:16 PM, CoastalWx said:

I noticed that earlier when Kevin made that comment. I still don't have a good feel for SNE...maybe nrn ORH could get lucky I guess...perhaps to Ray. It's too bad we lost the synoptic look for a biggie like some of the runs had 2 days ago with the mid levels under us.

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It would have been nice, but how much can we actually expect this time of the year? Especially. On top of that, this whole year sucked moose dong anyway. I wasn't expecting anything out of this.

[dryslot]

Looks like the CMC stayed home today.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:19 PM, ineedsnow said:

Some of the 12z GEFS. Members are wild

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Still pretty much a non-event for SNE in the mean though. Too many eastern Michigan/Lake Huron primaries which causes the secondary to rip up through interior SNE. 

[wxeyeNH]

Let's get to 40"!! 

[CoastalWx]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:20 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

It would have been nice, but how much can we actually expect this time of the year? Especially. On top of that, this whole year sucked moose dong anyway. I wasn't expecting anything out of this.

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If the setup happened like some models had a few days ago it certainly would have done it. 

[CoastalWx]

GEFS stall it over Moosup. Just sitting there smiling.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I hate this event in every way possible

[40/70 Benchmark]

[NW_of_GYX]

Wow GFS. That's like a NVT bread and butter pattern transplanted 100 miles SW. Toss the clowns and the 40 spot over my head but it's amazing how consistent the GFS has been with this signal. Just days and days of this without backing down. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/1/2024 at 3:49 PM, powderfreak said:

Ginxy is here for none of it.  This forum is hilarious sometimes.

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I have watched enough waffles here to open an IHOP. People checked out should just not post. Once you say you out then  you out.  The peanut gallery is large

[weatherwiz]

  On 4/1/2024 at 3:57 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's a shame that ULL is such a beast in the MW.

 

The other thing is convection. There is some severe wx progged. Not sure how the globals will handle that..but it's part of the reason why the NAM warm tongue may not be so far fetched...even if off a little.

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There is a big of divergence between the models with this convection in the Ohio Valley. 

The NAM/GFS shifted north with where the bulk of the convection occurs while the HRRR is further south. 

This is why I think its important to closely assess where the warm front ends up today because that's where the convection will be focused. South of the warm front there may be capping issues. The NAM warm tongue would make sense if the convective solution pans out as advertised. 

There isn't a whole lot going on right now which could help with a farther north warm front into the Ohio Valley. 

[dryslot]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:35 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

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[40/70 Benchmark]

@512highJust go by this

[dryslot]

Congrats Dendrite?   

[WinterWolf]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:20 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

It would have been nice, but how much can we actually expect this time of the year? Especially. On top of that, this whole year sucked moose dong anyway. I wasn't expecting anything out of this.

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Yea as Scott said…if this was showing the solutions from Friday…we’d all be giddy because that would have gotten it done easily, and we’d all be buried. It can happen at this time of the year…but you need the right set up, and everything to go perfectly.  We can’t even catch one break this year for the most part(correction: actually CT did 2/13).  But it’s been a crap two years for the most part. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Uh, wow. Maybe I really will hit 100" on the season.

[CoastalWx]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:36 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I have watched enough waffles here to open an IHOP. People checked out should just not post. Once you say you out then  you out.  The peanut gallery is large

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It's gonna be white grasshoppers?

[WxWatcher007]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:36 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I have watched enough waffles here to open an IHOP. People checked out should just not post. Once you say you out then  you out.  The peanut gallery is large

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Been out. Still out. Nothing to say other than best of luck to the northerners. I mean that sincerely. This is a heck of a run for them.

[dryslot]

Even the models are onto april fools day.

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:46 PM, dryslot said:

Congrats Dendrite?   

No way in hell I get the 36" on that map but if I do I would freaking cry tears of absolute joy

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[NW_of_GYX]

foot+ on positive depth change is no joke. Think it's safe to say the Whites into the Mahoosucs about to get wrecked PNW style. Next Monday Eclipse chasers trying to find a place to park off the road in NNH NW Maine should be interesting. 

[WinterWolf]

Start of the south trend at 12z….by 18z everybody will be high fiving…

[Weathernoob335]

  On 4/1/2024 at 4:08 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

That was my hope

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Guess we're getting snow after all