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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


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  On 3/31/2024 at 1:21 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there will be a lot of white rain lingering as the ULL takes its time to move out but I don’t expect much of that stuff to stick. Maybe briefly in heavier snow showers. 
 

The key for siggy accums is getting into the meat of the CCB on the coastal. 

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And nothing really has that here . I’m not ruling out a wet inch of slop on mulch and grass or something. But what good is that ?

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I think ideally for non-ORH hills/Berks interior SNE (and I’ll loosely define this as 495 belt from Ray right down to near Kevin on 84 NE of HFD) we want to see that primary die a little quicker instead of getting wrapped up into the thumb of Michigan. If you can can keep it more toward CLE instead then it’s balls to wall. 

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  On 3/31/2024 at 1:54 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I think ideally for non-ORH hills/Berks interior SNE (and I’ll loosely define this as 495 belt from Ray right down to near Kevin on 84 NE of HFD) we want to see that primary die a little quicker instead of getting wrapped up into the thumb of Michigan. If you can can keep it more toward CLE instead then it’s balls to wall. 

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Gfs has been wrapping the primary further nw into MI each run. NoP folks need that to cease. 

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  On 3/31/2024 at 1:54 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I think ideally for non-ORH hills/Berks interior SNE (and I’ll loosely define this as 495 belt from Ray right down to near Kevin on 84 NE of HFD) we want to see that primary die a little quicker instead of getting wrapped up into the thumb of Michigan. If you can can keep it more toward CLE instead then it’s balls to wall. 

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and I'll add ... the position 'over the thumb' is stressing this type of -NAO correlation, too.  

I'm not sure if seasonality may somehow transitively allow that?   

It's stressing but I suppose not impossible.  I kind of like mid range 'path of least resistance' to correct things.  The "correction vector" is pointing toward less penetration to those latitudes, though.   The other thing that makes that odd is that this block, albeit in the process of breaking down as this event is unfolding ...is retrograding S-SW. 

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  On 3/31/2024 at 1:54 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I think ideally for non-ORH hills/Berks interior SNE (and I’ll loosely define this as 495 belt from Ray right down to near Kevin on 84 NE of HFD) we want to see that primary die a little quicker instead of getting wrapped up into the thumb of Michigan. If you can can keep it more toward CLE instead then it’s balls to wall. 

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This 50-100 mile shift south we need of the coastal is plenty doable at 3-4 day lead as we know…that’s a small shift at this range. Can we do it.  Let’s go NAO.

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  On 3/31/2024 at 1:54 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I think ideally for non-ORH hills/Berks interior SNE (and I’ll loosely define this as 495 belt from Ray right down to near Kevin on 84 NE of HFD) we want to see that primary die a little quicker instead of getting wrapped up into the thumb of Michigan. If you can can keep it more toward CLE instead then it’s balls to wall. 

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Yes exactly and the last few runs have trended in the wrong direction with stronger primary 

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NAM is actually sub-freezing over high terrain of SNE and 925s are between -3 and -4 so you’d get good accumulations that way. But you want to see more global models trend that cold before you consider it realistically. 

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