Modfan2 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs over Moosup and into NH. Sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Euro op pretty mild at 925 into srn NH. You need this thing much further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro op pretty mild at 925 into srn NH. You need this thing much further south. It was fun for a couple days. But we’re prob cooked unless we sink this back south 50-100mi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It was fun for a couple days. But we’re prob cooked unless we sink this back south 50-100mi We put our eggs in the Canadian eastern basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was fun for a couple days. But we’re prob cooked unless we sink this back south 50-100mi Good. It’s golf season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was fun for a couple days. But we’re prob cooked unless we sink this back south 50-100mi At least Providence will get some relief from their drought. there is high confidence that this storm will produce significant precipitation in southern New England. NBM probs of 48 hour rainfall exceeding 2 inches ranges from 30 to 50 percent across the forecast area with the bull eye centered roughly over Providence RI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, kdxken said: At least Providence will get some relief from their drought. there is high confidence that this storm will produce significant precipitation in southern New England. NBM probs of 48 hour rainfall exceeding 2 inches ranges from 30 to 50 percent across the forecast area with the bull eye centered roughly over Providence RI. I mean 2” in 48 hrs is a drop in the bucket considering we have been getting 2-4” in 12 hrs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Just now, Modfan2 said: I mean 2” in 48 hrs is a drop in the bucket considering we have been getting 2-4” in 12 hrs For an ensemble mean that far out that’s impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was fun for a couple days. But we’re prob cooked unless we sink this back south 50-100mi Ya hoping for a trend south today but like my spot for atleast something here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 The Icon is another way to get a good event with how it rapidly intensifies as it gets close to Chatham. Euro op was good for Berks and Monads. Probably better for Kevin vs Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Ya hoping for a trend south today but like my spot for atleast something here You’re still in a good spot. Maybe even down to ORH but it would feel A little better even in that area to see things tick a little south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 31 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: I mean 2” in 48 hrs is a drop in the bucket considering we have been getting 2-4” in 12 hrs We’ll get another 2-6” of rain in CT out of this . Deep easterly inflow just hammers the moisture in and wrings out. 35 and 3 days of rain and strong wind gusts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll get another 2-6” of rain in CT out of this . Deep easterly inflow just hammers the moisture in and wrings out. 35 and 3 days of rain and strong wind gusts We will see snow last 2 days though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Euro op pretty mild at 925 into srn NH. You need this thing much further south. Sloppy white rain and some snow here. Sell those clowns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Sloppy white rain and some snow here. Sell those clowns. You’re getting 6”+ of paste. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 You’re getting 6”+ of paste. So are youSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Sloppy white rain and some snow here. Sell those clowns. Congrats on multiple snow days in April. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 waiting to see some of the weenie range SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Sloppy white rain and some snow here. Sell those clowns. You will be surprised. Does anyone inland not see the massive height falls and stalled CCB? Sell the GFS .I think crazy uncle Euro and GEM have the best grasp. Pretty much every ensemble member crushes you. Enjoy power loss. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 9 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: So are you Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk I’d sign on the dotted line now if I could. I always get worried about elevation this time of year plus possible poor rates on an easterly fetch. The more latitude the better so you’re in a little better shape than I am. Let’s hope this works out as a treat to end a rough snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Height falls don’t help keeping low level cold. Euro op would be decent for Dave though I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 You also need deep lift through DGZ this time of year. Euro gets slotty S and E of Dave at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 The good news is for the folks who do get snow the pack will stay for a while. Won't get much melting due to the eclipse. 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We will see snow last 2 days though . I’m not sold on that . I’m sure there’ll br some 33-34 degree wet snow that doesn’t stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 42 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Sloppy white rain and some snow here. Sell those clowns. I sure wish I lived where you and need snow does. You guys are going to get hammered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I sure wish I lived where you and need snow does. You guys are going to get hammered. You have a shot at at least a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m not sold on that . I’m sure there’ll br some 33-34 degree wet snow that doesn’t stick Yeah there will be a lot of white rain lingering as the ULL takes its time to move out but I don’t expect much of that stuff to stick. Maybe briefly in heavier snow showers. The key for siggy accums is getting into the meat of the CCB on the coastal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I sure wish I lived where you and need snow does. You guys are going to get hammered. I'm hoping.. no power for days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I'm hoping.. no power for days? I know Dave is really hoping for that… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 9 hours ago, WinterWolf said: The block? Kind of makes sense with that block there ..no? Few pages behind in this thing, but I like the GGEM's blocking influence, during -AO and/or -NAOs, more so than the GFS Euro (for positioning aspects in space) and always have. Maybe it's something to do with that index being more important/urgent in every day means up there, but just anecdotally they seem to do well with that aspect. A blend in the ens means may be more useful. I haven't looked at jack squat since very early yesterday morning and that was a just a cursory pass thru. Fwiw, yesterday's Euro and GGEM solutions from 00z ( now 36 hrs old) vs last night's, other than essentially meaningless differences were remarkably similar. This looks like to historic storm on Jan 31st, but since it is March 31, we are getting some geriatric diminishing returns due to seasonal aspects that cannot be avoided. Again, this system is unique relative to anything we've seen this last season. It is anchored by the index rate of change, which is why it is moving so slow. It's driven by sub-PNA --> +PNA with a well timed NE Pac S/W diving in. This latter wave space gets caught underneath a very potent albeit -NAO burst over the western limb of the domain space. That is dense statistical correlation for just carving over the Del Marva ...yet the GFS once this over Worcester. Anyway, the wholesale event is some 30 hrs in some of these model because it is straight up index driven event... Unfortunate that it is happening on March 31 and now January 31. Shave 3 deg for winter climate off that thermal plumb and this thing would easily be a top 10 event. Not only would the ptypes be settled, but the more intense baroclinic axis throughout the entire domain would positively feed-back in consolidation and higher storm productivity results from that. So a few realistic aspect that cannot be avoided in this from what I am looking at. The JMA has never deviated from a blockbuster blue bomb, btw. If for cartoon value alone, this is a pretty ominous look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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