Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/30/2024 at 8:40 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sold on that.

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Theoretically at d5 no you can’t lock that in, especially as a forecaster, but there is a very high ceiling with a high probability of 18+ elevated CNE/NNE. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/30/2024 at 9:02 PM, powderfreak said:

Is that the same as positive depth change?

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That’s just snow depth. I feel like it almost shows what would fall and compact at 10:1.

[ineedsnow]

I still got a good feeling here still want to wait a day or 2 though before getting excited for it though

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/30/2024 at 9:02 PM, CoastalWx said:

Your elevation will help. I on the other hand need lots of help. And not just this storm lol.

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I’m planning on the storm bombing NE of my latitude . If that happens I have to hope the five finger discount reach around happens 

[ORH_wxman]

Go back to the pre-clown map era when you have marginal temp profile….esp under 800-1000 feet  

1. Look for 6 hourly QPF greater than 0.50”…preferably 0.75”+. The heavier the better, but 0.25 or 0.37 over 6 hours isn’t gonna cut it. That’s mostly white rain. 

2. Look at 925 temps. Typically want -2ish or colder to avoid total slop though -1 will work if youre pounding with good snow growth aloft. 
 

If you aren’t satisfying both of those criteria, then you’re looking at something significantly under 10:1 ratios. 
 

Nocturnal timing for max precip can help a bit too, but it’s less significant than the two factors above. 

[powderfreak]

  On 3/30/2024 at 9:02 PM, CoastalWx said:

That’s just snow depth. I feel like it almost shows what would fall and compact at 10:1.

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To be honest it doesn’t matter lol.  Just think it’s a marginal air mass, the 10:1 maps are over-selling it.  In some cases pretty solidly over-selling it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/03/major-spring-storm-to-supply.html

First Call tomorrow night.

[George001]

What percentage would you guys say this has of developing into a historic blizzard for all of eastern mass, similar to April 1997, March 2013, March 2018 etc? I don’t think it is likely at all (I’m leaning towards rain here) but do believe that upside exists if everything breaks right due to the strength of the low on the models.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/30/2024 at 9:15 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/03/major-spring-storm-to-supply.html

First Call tomorrow night.

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Just great. 

[dryslot]

  On 3/30/2024 at 9:21 PM, George001 said:

What percentage would you guys say this has of developing into a historic blizzard for all of eastern mass, similar to April 1997, March 2013, March 2018 etc? I don’t think it is likely at all (I’m leaning towards rain here) but do believe that upside exists if everything breaks right due to the strength of the low on the models.

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%

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/30/2024 at 9:11 PM, powderfreak said:

To be honest it doesn’t matter lol.  Just think it’s a marginal air mass, the 10:1 maps are over-selling it.  In some cases pretty solidly over-selling it.

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The last two winters here should be a major reminder of  that lol. 

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 3/30/2024 at 9:06 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m planning on the storm bombing NE of my latitude . If that happens I have to hope the five finger discount reach around happens 

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You must not get enough at home.... 

[MJO812]

Gfs is a tick north 

[dryslot]

Pounded

[MJO812]

  On 3/30/2024 at 10:04 PM, dryslot said:

Pounded

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[FXWX]

  On 3/30/2024 at 9:09 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Go back to the pre-clown map era when you have marginal temp profile….esp under 800-1000 feet  

1. Look for 6 hourly QPF greater than 0.50”…preferably 0.75”+. The heavier the better, but 0.25 or 0.37 over 6 hours isn’t gonna cut it. That’s mostly white rain. 

2. Look at 925 temps. Typically want -2ish or colder to avoid total slop though -1 will work if youre pounding with good snow growth aloft. 
 

If you aren’t satisfying both of those criteria, then you’re looking at something significantly under 10:1 ratios. 
 

Nocturnal timing for max precip can help a bit too, but it’s less significant than the two factors above. 

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Agree completely with your caveats; I think you can survive the marginally cold at 925 with modest rates in mid-winter, but not in early April... Some of the past monsters being thrown around either excessive dynamics or much colder profiles.  And 1982 had both with pure Arctic cold... I will get more interested if the consolation process appears likely to be perfect...

[powderfreak]

  On 3/30/2024 at 10:04 PM, dryslot said:

Pounded

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3 feet for Pinkham Notch

[dryslot]

  On 3/30/2024 at 10:05 PM, MJO812 said:

 

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Similar to last weekends

[powderfreak]

That’s a big event for a lot of NNE mtns.

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 3/30/2024 at 10:12 PM, powderfreak said:

That’s a big event for a lot of NNE mtns.

Yep

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[Torch Tiger]

that's one ugly gfs run, wow.  concerns

[dryslot]

  On 3/30/2024 at 10:12 PM, powderfreak said:

That’s a big event for a lot of NNE mtns.

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2-3' at elevation in the mtns.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/30/2024 at 10:09 PM, dryslot said:

Similar to last weekends

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At this point, unless we can trend a more dynamic system a little more south,  I am rooting for plain rain here, rather than an inch or two of glop.  

[ORH_wxman]

Disjointed crap still on 18z GFS until it gets W Maine/White mountains. Not consolidated like some other guidance. 

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 3/30/2024 at 10:30 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

At this point, unless we can trend a more dynamic system a little more south,  I am rooting for plain rain here, rather than an inch or two of glop.  

You are literally a 20 minute drive from me, why settle for rain? Besides, GEFS still gives you 10"

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[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Everyone wants to keep bringing up 04/01/97 and 04/06/82, and yeah 1996-97 was a ratter until April 1st just like this season but this one just doesn't have the same dynamics as that one did, and April 1982 had a very cold airmass to work with. In terms of overall synoptics this one actually looks more similar to 03/29/70, but even that one had better dynamics to work with.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/30/2024 at 11:02 PM, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Everyone wants to keep bringing up 04/01/97 and 04/06/82, and yeah 1996-97 was a ratter until April 1st just like this season but this one just doesn't have the same dynamics as that one did, and April 1982 had a very cold airmass to work with. In terms of overall synoptics this one actually looks more similar to 03/29/70, but even that one had better dynamics to work with.

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The more consolidated solutions have incredible dynamics. But something like the GFS is less intriguing until you are into high terrain of NNE. You have the low trying to escape northeast too quickly early before it finally gets tugged back. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/30/2024 at 9:02 PM, powderfreak said:

Is that the same as positive depth change?

 

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Depth at that time . There is no snow south of the Dendy area

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/30/2024 at 11:02 PM, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Everyone wants to keep bringing up 04/01/97 and 04/06/82, and yeah 1996-97 was a ratter until April 1st just like this season but this one just doesn't have the same dynamics as that one did, and April 1982 had a very cold airmass to work with. In terms of overall synoptics this one actually looks more similar to 03/29/70, but even that one had better dynamics to work with.

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This is a bomb. Zero doubt 

[Patrick-02540]

I will decide by tomorrow evening if I'm going to drive up to Jackson for this.  Looks like it might be a good spot.