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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


Typhoon Tip
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They probably have better retention that the E MA CP because they don't get the marine intrusions or the DSD days....kind of the inverse on how Kev doesn't get upslope like the ORH hills because he is more of a single hill than a chain. That area of VT doesn't get the general downslope on a prevailing westerly flow like the CP does.

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

10:1 and then positive depth increase...

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-2383200.thumb.png.bd0175aa184fae350efc056a598e270d.png

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-snow_depth_chg_inch-2383200.thumb.png.3c76bf87b268d20cc65808dbd0f7cc9c.png

Depth change is always whacky

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Depth change is always whacky

It’s been very good this season to be honest.  Numerous events the depth change has been much closer to reality with so many marginal temp events.  The 10:1 maps stacking up white rain that the depth maps got right at 4:1.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s been very good this season to be honest.  Numerous events the depth change has been much closer to reality with so many marginal temp events.  The 10:1 maps stacking up white rain that the depth maps got right.

I think on the hill tops Kuchera could work, but I would def. stay slower to + depth change in the lower terrain.

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

If we can avoid attenuation in future runs this will become interesting even for areas closer to the coast.

I wonder how far south this storm can go. Impressive blocking. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think on the hill tops Kuchera could work, but I would def. stay slower to + depth change in the lower terrain.

Agreed.  1,000ft is good but the lower elevations have had numerous storms where depth change nailed it pretty good.  Especially up here with valley vs mountain ratios.

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EPS def trended better from 00z and 06z for SNE. More consolidation. I’d say that’s better for CNE too for sure. You want to avoid a disjointed system to maximize amounts.  

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23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s been very good this season to be honest.  Numerous events the depth change has been much closer to reality with so many marginal temp events.  The 10:1 maps stacking up white rain that the depth maps got right at 4:1.

Don't buy it as depicted.  Maybe typical April quick melt , but in storm??? . Bufkit will be better like the two footer you had

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29 minutes ago, Wx37 said:

Does the CP inside of 128 actually have a shot at seeing accumulations with this depiction or just a bunch of non-accumulating snow? What’s the temp profile?

Been right at 40 years, the last time I drove to BOS.  They write tickets now, but I brought about 4 inches of snow from Saratoga Springs to Boston in 1984 on my 1976 Chrysler Cordoba.  I don't see that many metro Boston posters, perhaps because it has been seasons of consecutive disappointment.

 

The NNE posters remind me of something I heard when I lived in the NYC area, snow in the Big Cities was good for ski country, it got some people thinking about skiing.  It'll be almost another hour before 2m temps from Euro are available on the free sites.  I myself am very curious about surface temps inside Route 128 and down to Marshfield.

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36 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Agreed.  1,000ft is good but the lower elevations have had numerous storms where depth change nailed it pretty good.  Especially up here with valley vs mountain ratios.

This last event had little elevational variation in snowfall, which is odd for a late season storm though 2m temps were well below 32.  (Highest spot had somewhat greater ratio, however.)
Listed by higher/lower elevation:
Temple 1.8W              1,224'   2.02"   22.1"
Farmington 4.2NW      616'     N/A    21.1"
Farmington 4.8NNW   610'    2.14"   20.5"
New Sharon 2.0N       392'    2.27"  22.0"   Had 2.5 hours of sleety/rimey stuff before the death band.  Don't know if the others had the same but friends in the area had some.

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